NEW DELHI: Television channels have spent hours covering the exit polls for the recently concluded assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa, with analysts called in to assess the post poll scenario on the basis of these numbers. The polls, however, paint a muddled picture as pollsters vary hugely in the number of seats they have accorded to each party in each of the five states. This massive variation in seat predictions raises huge questions on the accuracy and relevance of exit polls.

In Uttar Pradesh, for example, all pollsters have given the BJP a lead, but the seats predicted for the party vary from 161 to 285. UP has 403 assembly seats, and while 161 means a hung assembly with all other parties in the post poll fray, 285 is a complete sweep that represents another political scenario altogether.

(Source: NDTV)

While some pollsters indicate that the fight in UP is close, others have projected a one party sweep with the BJP comfortably forming the government. ABP News-Lokniti and CSDS both give the BJP 164-176 seats and the SP-Cong 156-169, indicating a close fight. On the other end, Today’s Chanakya predicts a BJP sweep with the lotus winning 285 seats and the SP-Cong reduced to a mere 88. This is a huge variance, and puts the entire exercise of exit polls in doubt.

Similarly, while all pollsters agree that the BSP will be the third largest party in Uttar Pradesh, they vary greatly in the number of seats Mayawati is expected to win. On the lower end is Today’s Chanakya that gives that BSP only 27 seats, and on the higher end is India News-MRC that expects the BSP to win 90 seats. This again is a huge variation for a party expected to come in at third place.

In Punjab, while pollsters agree that it’s between the AAP and Congress, here too the scenario is entirely muddled.

(Source: NDTV)

While some pollsters give AAP a lead, others predict a Congress win, and yet others says it’ll be a tie. India Today-Axis predicts a comfortable win for the Congress with 62-71 seats (59 are needed for a majority), with AAP getting 42-51 seats, and ABP-Lokniti says that the Congress will be the single largest with 46-56 seats and AAP will win 36-46 seats.

Others flip the scenario, putting AAP in the lead and Congress in second place. India TV CVoter says AAP will win 59-67 seats, and the Congress will get 41-49.

Two pollsters predict a tie, with India News MRC giving both the Congress and AAP 55 seats each, and News 24 Today’s Chanakya giving both parties 54 seats each.

Again, there’s a big variation in third place numbers. All pollsters agree that the Akali alliance will be in third place, but range in seats won from 4 to 27. India Today Axis puts the Akali-BJP seat share at 4-7. Whereas ABP Lokniti CSDS predicts 19-27 seats to the SAD-BJP alliance.

Similarly, the exit poll predictions for Uttarkhand vary greatly. While CVoter sees a tie between the BJP and Congress, both at 29-35 seats, Today’s Chanakya predicts a clear BJP win with 53 seats, giving the Congress only 30. A third poll by News X MRC takes a midway position, giving the BJP 38 seats and the Congress 30. ABP Lokniti CSDS gives the BJP 34-42 seats and the Congress 23-29 seats.

(Source: NDTV)

In Manipur, CVoter predicts a Congress victory whereas Axis My India says the BJP will win. CVoter gives the Congress 25-31 seats, and the BJP 17-23, whereas Axis My India says the BJP will win with 30-36 seats and the Congress will get 16-22.

(Source: NDTV)

In Goa, pollsters agree on a BJP win, but again, the numbers are entirely different. India Today says the BJP will win 18-22 seats, with the Congress getting 9-13. India TV CVoter predicts 15-21 seats for the BJP and 12-18 seats for the Congress. India News MRC says all parties will fall short of the halfway mark, giving the BJP 15 and the Congress 10 seats.

(Source: NDTV)

While TV channels and front page news headlines are dominated by exit poll predictions, the huge variance in the numbers raises questions about the relevance of the entire exercise.

It is also worth mentioning that exit polls do not have the best record when it comes to accuracy. Three recent examples serve as an indication of why exit polls are a problematic indication: Delhi, Bihar and Tamil Nadu. In the Delhi assembly elections of 2015, half-a-dozen exit polls gave AAP about 31 to 54 seats, putting the BJP at about 17-35 seats. The Week-IMBR, IBN 7-Data Mineria and Zee-Taleem Research Foundation (TRF) gave BJP 36 out of 70 seats. Today's Chanakya gave 48 seats to AAP and 22 to the BJP. The ABP-Nielsen survey gave AAP 39 and the BJP 28 seats. The Times Now-C-Voter survey gave AAP 31-39 seats and the BJP 27-35. The India Today-Cicero gave AAP 35-43 seats and the BJP 23-29. NDTV said AAP could win 38 seats and the BJP 29. In reality: AAP won 67 seats and the BJP got only 3 seats.

Bihar was a similar story, but here exit pollsters got even the leading party wrong. Today’s Chanakya on News 24 channel gave the BJP-led alliance a strong majority with 155 seats, and the rival JDU led alliance 80 seats. India Today-Cicero poll predicted 113 to 127 seats for the NDA and 111 to 123 for the JDU-led alliance. NDTV gave the NDA 120-130, and the JDU alliance 105 to 115. A handful of pollsters did put the JDU alliance ahead, but here too, the numbers were all wrong. C-Voter and News Nation gave a simple majority (122 seats) to the JDU alliance, while AC Nielsen and CNX gave them 130 and 132 respectively. In reality, the JDU alliance won 178 seats, with the NDA far behind at 58.

The figures predicted by exit polls for Tamil Nadu in 2016 were even more off. Four out of five exit polls predicted a victory for the DMK. News NationTV gave the DMK 116 seats and AIADMK 97. Axis-My Nation gave the DMK 132 seats and AIADMK 95. ABP gave the DMK 132 seats and AIADMK 95. And Today’s Chanakya gave the DMK 140 seats and the AIADMK 90. Only Times Now - CVoter predicted an AIADMK win (139 seats), giving the DMK 78. Four of the five pollsters were entirely off, with reality giving AIADMK 136 seats and the DMK 98.

While Delhi, Bihar and Tamil Nadu are recent examples, opinion and exit polls are largely inaccurate and have been so forever. In fact, “of the 82 electoral surveys that surveyed more than 1.25 million voters for 13 Lok Sabha and State Assembly elections since 1996 that we analysed, zero (yes, zero) have been fully accurate and 15 have been partially accurate,” as pointed out by Praveen Chakravarthy.

The assembly election results for Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa will be declared on Saturday, March 11.

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GAYETI SINGH