With barely a week to go for the first phase of the Lok Sabha polls in Karnataka, both the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) alliance, are targeting the dominant Vokkaliga and Kuruba votes in at least four main constituencies.

These are: Mandya, Bengaluru Rural, Mysuru–Kodagu and Chamarajanagar. Mandya, in particular, has become the focal point.

The BJP was keen that Kumaraswamy should contest from this Vokkaliga heartland, believing that his popularity in the belt would have a ripple effect on neighbouring Bengaluru Rural and Mysuru-Kodagu as well. Besides, his public presence, along with his father former Prime Minister Deve Gowda, will provide the much needed boost to the BJP’s candidates.

The reasoning was that the JDS’ Vokkaliga votes would get transferred to the BJP candidates in the other constituencies, during the two-phase polls in the state.

Even though Kumaraswamy was recovering from a recent heart ailment , he was persuaded by the senior alliance partner to throw his hat into the ring in Mandya. Never mind the fact that in 2019, Kumaraswamy’s son, Nikhil, had to bite the dust. Sumalatha, the Independent candidate, romped home with ease from here. She was supported by the BJP.

The exercise this time was not easy because Sumalatha was keen to contest from Mandya again even if on a BJP ticket. The party had to convince her to rethink, presumably, with a promise of a Rajya Sabha ticket later.

To that extent, the BJP succeeded in putting its strategy in place in Mandya. The party sought to assure itself of support for Kumaraswamy while ensuring that Sumalatha’s followers also chip in with their votes for the common candidate. The former actress had bagged 7.03 lakh votes in 2019 against 5.77 lakh polled by Nikhil.

However, analysts argue that for Kumaraswamy this is a big gamble. A success here could ensure the JDS’ revival after the loss it suffered in the Assembly polls of 2023. A win, could even catapult him to the Centre as a Union Minister if the NDA manages to retain power.

Above all, it can help the JD-S in being acknowledged as the dominant party the Vokkaliga community can depend on.

If he loses, it could well mean the end of JDS as a political party, and the end of the clout that the Gowda family wields in the state. The JD-S chief’s supporters believe that Kumaraswamy had no choice but to tie-up with the BJP.

Critics argue that Kumaraswamy’s win in Mandya could also deal a severe blow to the ambitions of D. K. Shivakumar, Deputy Chief Minister and state Congress president.

Especially, as after the success of the Congress in the 2023 Assembly polls, he was successful in edging out the Gowda family as top leaders of the Vokkaliga community. A reversal of fortunes could see Shivakumar lose his clout in the state. And maybe with the party’s central leadership as well.

Incidentally, the Congress was confident that Sumalatha would not join the BJP, and was also seeking to woo her into their fold. Had she joined the Congress, the party would have been more than happy to nominate her from Mandya.

This did not happen, leading to its decision to appoint Venkataramane Gowda, better known as ‘Star Chandru’ to fight against Kumaraswamy.

However, the Congress appears undaunted by the challenge, as evidenced by the manner in which it has worked out its strategy to garner Vokkaliga and Kuruba votes in the first phase of the polls.

While Mandya has over 17 lakh voters, largely Vokkaligas, Kurubas and Dalits also form a major chunk of the electorate in the eight Assembly segments of the important constituency. This is what Chief Minister, Siddaramaiah, a Kuruba, wants to exploit.

Accordingly, the party has assigned senior leaders like Cheluvarayaswamy, B. S. Shivanna and Narendraswami to interact with the constituents. They have been tasked with consolidating the OBC and Kuruba vote bank on which Siddaramaiah hopes to ride home.

On its part, the BJP has been working hard to woo the Vokkaliga voters in Bengaluru Rural in particular, as it is considered to be the fiefdom of Shivakumar and his brother, D. K. Suresh, the incumbent MP who is determined to retain his seat.

The BJP has chosen Deve Gowda’s son-in-law, Dr C. Manunath as its candidate from here. His work as a cardiologist in the Jayadeva Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences and Research, in Bengaluru, in addition to the clean image that he enjoys.

Bearing in mind the stiff competition that a political novice like Dr Manjunath will be facing against D. K. Suresh, the BJP has assigned former Deputy CM, Aswath Narayan, known as a heavyweight Vokkaliga leader, to the constituency. Narayan wields considerable influence in the belt and the BJP hopes to exploit this element while seeking to neutralise the strength of the two brothers.

Some parts of Bengaluru also come under the Bengaluru Rural constituency and the IT city has generally been partial to the BJP. The party is hopeful of making inroads into the brothers’ citadel and attempting to wean away their voters. However, the two Congressmen are determined to fight it out.

Meanwhile, there are several namesakes of Dr Manjunath who have joined the fray in Bengaluru Rural. However, the BJP candidate and Gowda’s son-in-law, is unfazed, claiming that “these are strategies by the opposition to confuse the voters, even cut into votes.” He maintains that supporters of the BJP-JDS combine are sharp enough to know the difference.

Meanwhile, the Congress has also asked its cadres and MLAs in the Assembly segments falling under the two Parliamentary constituencies of Mysuru-Kodagu and Chamarajanagar to ensure that its candidates win with a huge majority.

Siddaramaiah asked voters in the Varuna Assembly segment to make a determined effort to see that the party’s candidates win by over a margin of 60,000. The Congress is carpet bombing the voters with its guarantee cards, assuring them that the freebies provided by its State government would continue for the next ten years.

In the case of the Mysuru-Kodagu seat, the BJP has changed its winning candidate Pratap Simha. He had been replaced by Yaduveer Wadiyar, the scion of the Mysuru Royal family. The Congress has given its ticket to newbie M. Lakshman, who some locals have called a “lightweight candidate”,

For the Chamarajanagar seat, Sunil Bose, the son of Minister H. Mahadevappa, will contest against S. Balaraj, former MLA of Kollegal. The BJP candidate is a close associate of Yediyurappa, former CM and current strongman of the party.

In that context, it is important for Yediyurappa to ensure that the JDS and BJP candidates make a mark in this election.

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