“All Is Well”, Says Akhilesh Yadav

“All's well that ends well,” said a beaming Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav after he told the media that the SP would share 17 Lok Sabha seats with the Congress in the upcoming general elections.

A press conference addressed together by senior leaders of the Congress and the SP in Lucknow later put an end to fears that the Opposition was lifeless, and that there is no alternative to the ruling party in Uttar Pradesh (UP) in the next Lok Sabha elections.

“This is the most mature and sensible decision made by Yadav in his more than a decade long political career,” a SP party worker told The Citizen.

The decision to share Lok Sabha seats with the Congress is one of the most positive things that the SP has done in a long time. After his term as Chief Minister of UP ended in an electoral defeat in 2017, Yadav has been seen blundering around in political darkness.

Now both the Congress and the SP will have to think sensibly and put up contestants who truly represent all communities. Many deserving Backward community members, Dalits and Muslims will have to be fielded.

In the past Yadav failed to win over people from the Backward and Dalit communities and managed to lose the support of minorities. He was unable to make political alliances work to his benefit. He did not succeed in stopping many Yadav voters from supporting the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

His father Mulayam Singh, the SP founder was known for a solid grassroots connection. Singh would address local SP workers by their first name, and till his dying day his bond with the village folk was unwavering.

Unfortunately Yadav’s style of politics is less solid. It revolves less around ordinary people and more around sycophants. Unlike his father whose son of the soil image made sure that his followers never left his side, Yadav’s rapport with ordinary citizens is more rehearsed.

Most of the decisions taken by Yadav in recent times seemed to have weakened the SP which his father had built into a powerful cadre-based political movement in UP. One by one many political allies of the SP have left the party.

The Yadavs are an important community in UP. Its support for the SP is tireless. In the 2017 state assembly elections, the SP won about 59 percent of all Yadav votes, and 47 out of 80 seats in UP.

Singh had consolidated the Muslim and Yadav (MY) votes in favour of the SP. Today the 20 percent of Muslim voters are unhappy with the SP for not making them feel safe and secure, and they are tempted to vote for the Congress in the next general elections.

Therefore, it is in its own interest that the SP has entered the upcoming electoral arena in partnership with the Congress.

The Congress Party

While the SP is losing ground in UP, the Congress has had little say in the politics of the state for over three decades. But together the Congress and the SP are expected to provide a formidable challenge to the ruling party in UP.

Today, the Congress has no presence in the countryside and its leadership in Lucknow is lacklustre. Voters in the two Lok Sabha constituencies of Amethi and Raebareli are still in favour of the Congress, but in most parts of the state all party activities have been abandoned.

However, the arrival of Rahul Gandhi’s Nyay Yatra last Wednesday had attracted much attention in UP. Witnessing the oceanic welcome received by Gandhi, an onlooker in Lucknow was pleased that Gandhi and Yadav have managed to put their differences aside and to forge an alliance.

“After all the SP has the workers on the ground and the Congress has a charismatic leader like Rahul Gandhi. Together they pose a spectacular resistance to today's politics of lies and hate,” the voter said.

The Priyanka Factor

However it was not Rahul, but his sister Priyanka Gandhi who was able to convince Yadav that it was in the interest of both the Congress and the SP to be on the same page in the general elections.

Priyanka is said to have called Yadav and during a friendly conversation had agreed to withdraw the Congress demand for the Moradabad Lok Sabha constituency. She told Yadav that the Congress would be happy to put up contestants from Varanasi and Sitapur.

That telephone call from Priyanka had impressed Yadav who was happy to keep Moradabad and agreed to spare 17 other seats for the Congress and one for Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad.

It is rumoured that the Amethi constituency lost by Rahul Gandhi in the last general elections may be contested by Varun, his cousin and son of Sanjay Gandhi, this year.

The Muslim Voter

The Muslim population totals about 20 percent in UP and it is the fear of losing Muslim votes that pushed the SP into an alliance with the Congress.

Political analysts confirm that the seat sharing arrangement between Congress and the SP has gladdened the heart of Muslim voters. This alliance will hopefully prevent the division of Muslim votes which would have favoured the ruling party.

The Congress-SP alliance is expected to consolidate the Muslim voting pattern in over two dozen Muslim dominated constituencies. The total number of Lok Sabha constituencies in UP is 80. Muslim dominated constituencies like Rampur, Amroha, Muzaffarnagar, Saharanpur Moradabad Bijnor were once Congress and SP turfs but in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections the seats were won by the ruling party.

The Mayawati Factor

Once Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati too had a huge Muslim following. However, she has distanced herself from real politics in recent times, making even her Dalit followers look around for greener pastures.

Today the sole supporter of the BSP is the Jatav community of Dalits, as the party’s lethargy has reduced its strength in every election. An alliance of the Congress, SP and the BSP would have strengthened Opposition unity in UP. But Mayawati announced that she will contest the general elections solo, raising suspicions that the Dalit leader considers the Congress and the SP a greater political enemy than the BJP?

Is Mayawati’s goal to win elections in the interest of her Dalit voters, or to dent the Congress and SP alliance by encouraging a three way contest that is bound to waste away all anti-BJP votes?