The Bharatiya Janata Party campaign for the crucial Maharashtra Assembly polls has moved from sops to polarisation. It has now stepped up efforts to polarise voters on religious lines after spending the first stage announcing welfare schemes for women, farmers, government employees and different castes.
The Maharashtra elections are not a walk over for any political party but the odds have started favouring the BJP as polling day draws near. The knives are out and top leaders have set the tone.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Aaditynath and Maharashtra’s Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis are playing the divisive plank openly. While Yogi Additynath set the tone of the campaign saying “batenge to katenge”, Modi took it forward with his slogan “ek hai to safe hai”, being propagated widely on social media..
The BJP issued advertisements in the media to further underline the campaign. Shah has made Article 370,Wakf Board, Ram temple at Ayodhya poll issues and Fadnavis is talking of ‘jehad’, ‘urban Naxals’ and the ideology of Veer Savarkar to consolidate the majority vote.
In his election rallies PM Modi accused the Congress of speaking the “the language of Pakistan” by seeking to restore Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. “ Nobody can bring back Article 370, we have buried it deep in the ground ,” he said while asserting, according to media reports, that the BJP led government at the Centre “abrogated Article 370 and hoisted the tricolour.”
Unemployment, price rise, plight of farmers, women security, erratic drinking water supply, growing urbanisation, migration issues have all disappeared from the BJP campaign but Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is banking on the “Ladkai Bahin Yojna”to win them votes.
However, Ajit Pawar’s faction of the Nationalist Congress Party has not been able to set the narrative at a time, and is struggling even till the eve of the elections. He has reportedly disapproved of the “batenge to katenge” line even as he finds it difficult to woo the BJP voters in his constituency Baramati.
The BJP’s anti minorities campaign backed by the Shinde Shiv Sena, could weaken Pawar and his faction of the NCP in some constitutnecies and adversely impact on the BJP led Maha Yuti in this election
Marathi votes in Mumbai, Thane and Navi Mumbai are expected to split between three parties –Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Raj Thackeray’s Maharasthtra Navnirman Sena. On the other hand, Maratha votes too are unlikely to go any one way as the BJP, Shinde Sena and Ajit’s NCP have fielded Maratha candidates.
In the Lok Sabha polls Marathas had voted against the BJP led front decisively. This time Maratha reservation agitation leader Manoj Jarange’s flip flop on whether or not to fight the elections has confused this community which constitutes nearly 30 per cent of the population. Maratha votes are decisive in the Marathawada, Western Maharashtra and partly North Maharashtra regions.
While Vidarbha is influenced by OBCs and Kunbais, caste has never been a factor in the Mumbai region.
The re -nomination of the majority of sitting MLAs could damage the prospects of the BJP, Shinde Sena and Ajit’s NCP as floating voters and middle class is unhappy with them and not approved of the BJP for breaking two strong regional parties –Shiv Sena and NCP in the state.
Besides, the BJP’s silence on backing Eknath Shinde as the next chief minister of Maha Yuti could make the workers of the Shinde Sena passive in the coming days.
It is still unclear whether or not Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar could be able to transfer their votes to the BJP at a time when relations between Raj Thackeray and the BJP are seen to be on the mend.
PM Modi has not attacked the veteran leader Sharad Pawar so far and not unduly provoked Uddhav Thackeray. But Amit Shah made Uddhav Thackeray the target of his attack while trying to project the Shiv Sena leader as anti Hindu and pro -minorities.
As far as the Opposition’s Maha Vikas Agadhi (MVA) is concerned Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray are the star campaigners and of course the chief strategists of their parties taking on Narendra Modi and Amit Shah from the front.
The Congress party, however, lacks a face, strategy and a fighting spirit. The selection of ‘wrong’ candidates is also working against the party in several constituencies. Interestingly, there are at least seven Congress leaders projecting themselves as the chief ministerial candidates.
Raj Thackeray’s MNS and Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi are seen as the B team of the BJP. Raj Thackeray has been attacking Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar, Sharad Pawar but is soft on the BJP. Narendra Modi, Amit Shah have made the Congress their main target. Campaigning is hectic, usual allegations of money and muscle power are flying high, with the Opposition and ruling parties agreed that Maharashtra is an important and crucial state to win.