The Political Landscape is Changing in Punjab and Haryana

The unfolding of events in the recent past points to the political landscape of the two northern states of Punjab and Haryana changing very fast. Now whether it is for good or bad only time will tell. But one thing is for sure, that by the time the key political forces enter the fray for another round of elections, there will be an entirely new political canvas for the electorate to ponder upon.

Beginning with Punjab that saw the Aam Aadmi Party being elected to the state assembly with a resounding victory in 92 of 117 seats a little less than three months ago, the winds of change haven’t stopped blowing.

It all began with former minister and Shiromani Akali Dal heavyweight Bikram Singh Majithia going to jail after the electoral process got over in Punjab. Booked in a drugs case, he surrendered before the authorities on February 24 and has since been lodged in Patiala jail. He had contested the recent polls from the high profile seat of Amritsar (East) unsuccessfully. His arrest added to the political woes of already beleaguered Akali Dal which continues to struggle to regain its place in Punjab politics.

And now it is the turn of high profile cricketer turned politician Navjot Singh Sidhu, who has followed Majithia to the same jail after being convicted in a road rage case dating back to 1988. He too had contested the recent polls unsuccessfully on the Amritsar (East) constituency. And his political journey in the last five years since he shifted loyalties from the Bharatiya Janata Party to the Congress ahead of the 2017 polls has been a roller coaster.

His becoming the state Congress chief last year, being instrumental in the removal of Captain Amarinder Singh as chief minister and the latter’s departure from the Congress, failure to realise his own ambition of getting the top post, questionable conduct in the runup to the recent polls that saw the Congress get a drubbing, and his continuing to be a pole in the divided state Congress unit has all been very dramatic. The party’s fortunes too have been on a roller coaster all this while.

A major political development was the departure of former state Congress chief Sunil Jakhar to the BJP. This has infused new life into the orange party in the state that stood cornered and isolated by the farmers’ movement last year. The Akalis’ marching out of their alliance with the party and its subsequent poor showing in the recent polls were a big push for the BJP towards the margins of Punjab’s political field.

Now however, sources on the ground say that Jakhar’s entry will be an advantage for the BJP. “Jakhar was one of the most credible, articulate, senior and accepted leaders of the Congress. The BJP is likely to field him from Gurdaspur in 2024 Lok Sabha polls and even make him a minister if it comes to power again at the Centre. This will help spread its roots in Punjab.

The saffron party may even send him to Rajya Sabha from one of the states. Jakhar is also likely to be used by the BJP in the Rajasthan assembly polls next year in the areas where his father late Balram Jakhar had a considerable clout,” disclosed a political observer.

Sources said that Jakhar’s contention that he was denied the chief minister’s post in Punjab after Amarinder’s removal despite having the support of the largest number of MLAs last year only because he is not a Sikh well suits the RSS narrative of the BJP. This was the first time that the issue of Hindu-Sikh had cropped up in Punjab elections.

Jakhar had won the seat in the 2017 bypoll necessitated by the demise of the BJP’s Vinod Khanna by a record margin of more than 1,93,000 votes. He lost in 2019 to another Bollywood star, Sunny Deol who had contested on a BJP ticket. It is learnt that Deol remains unpopular on account of his long absences from the constituency and the saffron party would rather replace him with Jakhar.

Amidst these developments it is Amarinder who has been having a laugh. He had formed the Punjab Lok Congress and contested the Punjab polls in alliance with the BJP. He was quick to congratulate Jakhar on joining BJP and referred to the Congress as a sinking ship while saying that more leaders would quit the party in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has made a strong political statement by sacking and ordering police action against health minister Dr Vijay Singla for seeking a 1% commission in tender allotment and purchases in the department headed by him.

“My government has zero tolerance towards corruption and no one, however affluent he may be, will be allowed to continue such malpractices,” said Mann. Taking a dig at the opposition, he added that they would fire salvos on corruption at his government but he at least had taken action against the corrupt, whereas the opposition had always sheltered and promoted such leaders.

So what lies in the future for Punjab?

“Punjab has always led others when it comes to bringing about a change. People have very high expectations from the AAP and if it fails to deliver it might offer an opening for yet another change. This time the progressive forces can have an advantage provided they unite. This is because of the high level of political awareness that has resulted from the farmers’ movement,” felt observer Vijay Bombeli who has been documenting the state’s political history.

He said the AAP would have to ensure that none of the MLAs who won after jumping from the other parties are made ministers. “It will also have to ensure that a new set of officials are deployed at key administrative posts as the old ones are not likely to mend their ways. In addition to this the party needs to utilize the services of pro-people advisors,” he said.

Bombeli pointed out that people put the AAP in two groups, one with its roots in New Delhi which is construed to be taking forward the Hindutva ideology while emphasizing honest and clean governance, and the other coming essentially from Punjab who largely comprise an immature lot. The latter have no ideology barring those who jumped over from other parties.

“There is a set of mature leaders with firm ideological groundings whether their roots lie in the radical Left, Bahujan Samaj Party or even the Congress, but their number does not go beyond 10 out of 92 that won on the AAP ticket,” he said.

Meanwhile, Haryana’s political landscape has been changing too. The conviction of Indian National Lok Dal leader and quadruple chief minister Om Prakash Chautala once again has come as a major blow to the already marginalized party. He had earlier been convicted in 2013 in a JBT teacher recruitment scam and only came out of jail last year. Now he faces another jail term after being convicted on charges of amassing disproportionate assets. Things don’t look too bright for the INLD as it fights to stay relevant in a state known for establishing ‘Aaya Ram Gaya Ram’ (here he comes and there he goes) politics in the country.

The party has been out of power since 2005 and had witnessed a split ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls when Chautala’s grandson Dushyant Chautala formed the Jannayak Janata Party, joining the BJP led state government after the assembly polls that year.

“The alliance is likely to continue for both the 2024 parliamentary and assembly polls. The INLD is likely to fade into oblivion. The AAP’s march in Haryana which seemed to have picked up after the party’s victory in Punjab appears to have been stalled as of now, with the Congress once again reposing faith in the leadership of former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda who has been trying to accommodate all sections of society. Recently eight former MLAs who had left the Congress returned to the party fold. More such exercises are expected in the coming days,” said senior political observer Balwant Takshak.

The Congress had recently appointed Hooda loyalist Udai Bhan as its new state unit chief replacing Kumari Selja.

“The Hindutva factor has also led to a change in Haryana politics. Secondly, Jats are now being given prominence by every political party whereas earlier the INLD and to some extent the Congress claimed to be Jat driven. AAP’s entry too will have repercussions,” sources said.