AAP Creates Ripples in Stagnant Water of Gujarat Politics

The political waters of Gujarat that have been stagnant for the last 27 years since the Bharatiya Janata Party came to power are showing some ripples. The noise created by the rookie Aam Aadmi Party is causing these ripples.

There are still more than five months to go for the state assembly polls. It is also well understood that Gujarat remains a citadel of the BJP besides being the home turf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Yet the emergence of AAP has politically inclined people wondering what the party's entry means for the state, Congress as well as BJP.

It remains to be seen what vote share AAP achieves in the state or whether it translates into seats. But the changes it has triggered in the political domain and the nuances being generated have caught the fancy of the people.

Observers on the ground point out that it is for the first time in the last two and a half decades that there is a serious third contender for the polls. All this while it was only the BJP and the Congress with their support bases along with caste and community permutations being well defined.

At the same time it was proving to be a one sided match in the assembly polls, with 2017 being an exception where the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was successful in stitching together communities like the Patels agitating for reservation along with the Thakors that dominate the Other Backward Class matrix. Many believe that another factor that led to the BJP dropping to two digits for the first time was some 'mismanagement', and the repercussions of Modi and Shah having moved to the Centre.

But things have gone downhill for the Congress since then, with earlier Alpesh Thakor and recently Hardik Patel departing.

"Presently the biggest challenge that the Congress is facing is that of visibility. It gets no space in the media in smaller towns and cities. Even in centres like Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot it gets minuscule space. Till now it has been a convenient punching bag of the BJP where all the shortcomings or failures were being attributed to the Congress. Whenever the Congress tried to raise real issues of development or those pertaining to the marginalized communities, they were conveniently shouted down," said an observer in Ahmedabad.

Observers also say that the BJP through a sustained campaign over the years has been successful in projecting the Congress as a party of the Muslims – an accusation in the politics of most states – and which they say again is not true given the soft tone of the Congress over several issues concerning the minorities.

It is here that AAP's entry assumes significance. "To begin with it does not carry any ideological baggage. In a state where Hindutva and caste politics continues to dominate, they can at least not be called pro Muslim given their studied silence over several issues concerning the minorities in the recent past.

"At the same time, this is the first time that the BJP is being challenged on real issues like health and education besides the lure of free or cheap power. AAP is talking about issues that concern the middle class, and the latter is the backbone of the BJP in urban Gujarat that is the stronghold of the saffron party. This has caused some restlessness in the saffron fold that is now reacting to AAP much more than the Congress," the observer added.

"It is true that AAP has cornered the BJP on the issues of health and education. But at the same time the BJP continues to dominate the turf with an unparalleled organization, money power and influence. The scenario in Gujarat is that the people are not concerned about real issues. They forget everything the moment the communal narrative comes up. The BJP after its long stint in power also has lots to show. That is why Modi can be seen challenging his opponents on infrastructure and development," underlined veteran political observer Suresh Samani based in Rajkot, who is skeptical about the vote share AAP might capture or convert to seats.

Those giving a positive picture of AAP's prospects say that for the first time there is a force that has caught the fancy of those looking for a non BJP, non Congress alternative with narratives around real issues. "Till now those not wanting to support the BJP were equally reluctant to support Congress, where there was the same old leadership with not much new to offer. Anyone having political aspirations outside the ambit of saffron politics now has an option," said another observer based in Ahmedabad.

When asked about the narrative in vogue of AAP being the B-team of the BJP he recalled, "If you go back to the Anna movement after which Modi came to the national scene, it was AAP and its leader Arvind Kejriwal that was in the lead. AAP is playing a shrewd game by being selective on responding to issues like those pertaining to the minorities as well as several other issues."

While it is being widely felt that AAP would mainly be damaging the Congress and stepping on its toes, some people believe that this may not be entirely true. The seats where the winning margin between BJP and the Congress has been very thin will be the ones to watch out for, they say.

Meanwhile, Kejriwal's attacks on the Congress during a public rally earlier this week were very harsh. While he has been attacking the BJP on issues like health, education, employment and power tariffs, he chose to appeal to the people not to cast even a single vote for the Congress.

At a rally in Ahmedabad he said, "The people of Gujarat no longer have any expectations from the Congress. In the last election, people had voted for the Congress and their MLAs had gone to the BJP for money. This time AAP workers have to ensure that the Congress party does not get a single vote in the coming elections. Today, a large number of people in Gujarat are angry with the BJP and they are not voting for the Congress, so AAP workers must ensure that they vote for AAP."

AAP has also revamped its entire state unit recently. "The Congress party has been in Gujarat for decades, but I can claim that AAP today has a much larger organization in Gujarat than the Congress. Today, Congress only exists on paper. In the next one month, there will be an organization up to the booth and that organization will be bigger than that of the BJP," he said.

Kejriwal further said, "Today there is no movement or campaign being run by the Congress in Gujarat and the only campaign being run is by the BJP to stop AAP in any way. The BJP leaders are working hard every day to stop AAP. Today AAP has become the main rival of BJP because there is only one party which goes among the people and listens to their problems, tries to understand their sufferings. Today it is AAP that cares about the future of the children of Gujarat and works for better education, better health care, better roads and corruption free governance."

There has also been an increase in the number of trips Modi and Shah have started making to their home turf. It is evident that the saffron party will be relying largely on these two leaders to deliver.

The state government under Bhupendra Patel has launched a 'Vande Gujarat Vikas Yatra' that aims to cover the entire state between July 5 and 19 with the help of 82 Vande Gujarat Raths. Reports say that 2,500 programmes will be organized to launch 25,000 government initiatives.

BJP state president CR Paatil has also launched a party membership drive called 'Maaro Parivar Bhajapa Parivar' (my family is a BJP family). Paatil has also launched a dashboard application to take stock of booth level information.