Maharashtra - Intense Struggle Between Maha Yuti & Maha Vikas Aghadi

On the eve of the first phase of polling for the Lok Sabha, Maharashtra may be serving a different cup of tea for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which has been boasting of claims such as “‘ab ki baar,400 paar’ (this time, cross 400)”.

The ‘premier state’ is witnessing a close contest between the ruling front known as Maha Yuti, and the Opposition's front called Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). This is seen on the ground, almost all over the state, against the backdrop of splits, desertions in political parties that led to the change of governments in the last four and half years.

With the Maratha reservation issue yet to be sorted out and the concerns of the OBCs still intact, the battle for the 48 seats is not easy for either side.

Nagpur, Ramtek, Bhandara-Gondia, Gadchiroli-Chimur and Chandrapur seats in the Vidarbha region will go to the polls on April 19. Buldhana, Akola, Amravati, Wardha, and Yavatmal-Washim from the same region, will have polling on April 26.

The tussle is intense and could be reflected in Nagpur where Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, despite being hailed as the most competent minister in the Modi dispensation, will not have a cakewalk to the finish line. He is being given a tough fight by Congress candidate, incumbent MLA Vikas Thakre.

Despite Nagpur being the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) headquarters, the Vidarbha region is known as a Congress bastion and has a liking for Indira Gandhi.

The splits in the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are not helping BJP to sweep the polls as per the pre-poll surveys and opinion polls. These surveys are giving 18 to 22 seats to the Opposition. The BJP is not likely to win 45 of the total 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra despite the open backing of Raj Thackeray, and Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) playing as spoiler in this election.

Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar have emerged as the star campaigners of the anti-BJP front despite a split in their parties. This is helping the Congress this time. The Congress had won one Lok Sabha seat in 2919 and two Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 general election.

The resignations of Ashok Chavan, Milind Deora, Baba Siddique, and Sanjay Nirupam only affected the Congress a little, due to the MVA.

The BJP is expected to contest 28-29 seats. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena will fight 13 to 14 seats while Ajit Pawar's NCP will contest five to six seats. This election will see whether Shinde and Pawar are assets, or a liability to the BJP which is relying more on the splits than the Modi magic to work in the elections.

Now, senior BJP ministers like Chandrakant Patil are conceding that the election in Maharashtra is not easy for the party, especially in Solapur and Madha while a BJP candidate told the party workers that there is a Modi wave in the state.

As per the opinion polls, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar are getting mileage of the sympathy factor. The BJP has an advantage of the system, and the bureaucracy. Besides, no one knows which way Marathas and OBCs will vote this time, in the wake of the Maratha agitation for quota in government jobs and education.

Though the vote banks of major political parties have split in Maharashtra, the floating voters, middle class and urban voters, could spring a surprise in this election to some extent. Besides, local issues have become more important than national issues.