Maharashtra - MahaYuti leaders Are Rivals, Not Allies

Contradictions thy name is politics. This phenomenon is being witnessed in poll-bound Maharashtra. The Bharatiya Janata Party-dominated ruling MahaYuti is said to be on shaky ground. However still, the tussle over the Chief Ministership is getting worse among the three allies.

The delay in the poll schedule announcement, is adding to this tussle and making Maharashtra’s electoral battle more unpredictable.

The pre-poll scenario in this premier state looks strangely like this for now. It is Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-Shiv Sena, versus Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis (BJP), versus Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar.

All of them claim to have the capability of defeating the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising the Congress, the Shiv Sena-Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party NCP. The MVA is now seen as more united and a credible alternative to the ruling dispensation.

Eknath Shinde is keen to remain the CM, as he has had only two and a half years in the top post. However, Fadnavis is the natural claimant being the BJP’s ‘face’ in the state and is known as the ‘kingmaker’. Fadnavis was the one who introduced Shinde to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after which Amit Shah made him the Chief Minister, despite the BJP being the single largest party in the Maharashtra Assembly.

Shinde’s revolt against Uddhav Thackeray, and his capture of the Shiv Sena along with its symbol succeeded because of the BJP and its power at the Centre. Fadnavis did the same in the NCP led by Sharad Pawar, at a time when Shinde’s Shiv Sena and the BJP had a majority in the Assembly.

Ajit Pawar, who is senior to Fadnaivs and Shinde in politics, is clear about claiming the CM’s post. He does not want to play second fiddle to anyone in the ruling front.

Now the three top leaders of the Maha Yuti are seen as rivals. Thanks to the BJP high command, especially Modi and Shah, who have encouraged the confusion over the Chief Ministership by maintaining silence on it .

Shinde’s Shiv Sena won seven Lok Sabha seats while the BJP got merely nine in the state. Ajit Pawar had managed to get just one Lok Sabha seat in Maharashtra, where Modi had addressed over 15 election rallies.

The Election Commission’s delay in announcing the poll schedule for Maharashtra should have benefitted the MahaYuti and the Eknath Shinde government which is relying on the ‘Ladki Bahin yojana’, and welfare programmes to benefit its performance in the Assembly elections.

But in reality it is providing more issues to the Opposition’s Maha Vikas Aghadi. The Opposition is raising issues such as safety and security of women, and the collapse of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj’s statue at Rajkot fort in Sindhudurg. They have launched state-wide protests against the government on it.

Maharashtra public health ministerTanaji Sawant who belongs to Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, recently said that he “felt like vomiting after sitting with the NCP ministers in the Cabinet”. Sawant added that he “never got along with the NCP”.

On the other hand, the BJP workers are threatening that the party’s votes will not shift to the candidates of Ajit Pawar’s NCP.

Interestingly, a section of the BJP feels that the party should fight all 288 Assembly seats on its own. as Shinde and Ajit’s parties are liabilities. They have become powerful by making inroads in the BJP’s political space in the state. “We should follow the Gujarat model, no pre-poll alliance,” they said.

It is unclear whether Ajit remains with the MahaYuti, or floats a third front after realising that his party is the common target of the BJP and Shinde’s Shiv Sena.

The next few weeks are going to be crucial in Maharashtra politically Desertions and political realignments are expected to take place before the formal announcement of the poll schedule. Ajit’s NCP wants to fight on 80 seats, Shinde’ Shiv Sena is pressing for 90 to 95 seats and the BJP plans to field candidates in 150 to 160 seats.

The seat-sharing exercise in the MahaYuti could be completed by the end of this month.

It is still unclear whether the ruling front will seek votes in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi or the Chief Minister. This is because the Modi plank had failed in the Lok Sabha elections while Shinde is unacceptable to the cadre of the BJP and Ajit’s NCP. Besides, he is neither seen as a strong Maratha leader like Ajit nor as a Hindutva hardliner.

Sharad Pawar-NCP’s Member of Parliament, Supriya Sule said that the polls could be held on November 10 and 12 (in two phases) and the code of conduct could be announced in the first week of October.

Meanwhile, the Maratha reservation movement leader Manoj Jarange is also threatening to defeat 113 sitting MLAs in the election if the state government does not solve the issue of the Maratha reservation before the announcement of the poll schedule.

The state is divided between the Marathas and OBCs, different fronts and alliances. It has been lacking a strong leader who has a vision to make Maharashtra a more progressive, developed and stable state.