As things start moving towards the Lok Sabha polls scheduled to be held early next year, the political scenario in Punjab represents a maze. Some interesting indicators that have emerged on the ground that define the scenario as fluid at this point of time.
This is coupled with a big question mark over possible alliances whether in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) block or the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) stable. Meanwhile rumblings on the ground are growing louder by the day as the people’s anger, frustration and desperation is coming to the fore.
The key players: the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) – SAD, Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are navigating the political maze. It needs to be pointed out here that Punjab politics is a complex cauldron. It is a border state where a national minority is in the majority.
The state has witnessed almost two decades of militancy, and this often gets reflected in the narrative around Khalistan making its shadowy appearance around every election. Religious overtones also define politics at many junctures particularly with a party like the Akalis in fray. This party claims to represent the interests of the Sikhs, often terming it ‘Punjabiyat’ as per the convenience. It is the oldest regional party of India.
The primarily rural turf that was at the forefront of the Green Revolution, as well as struggles like the recent farmers’ movement that saw the Centre under the BJP being compelled to withdraw three controversial agricultural laws make Punjab a state where the farmers are a formidable force. Observers say that the political scenario at this point is fluid on account of several factors.
To begin with, the ruling AAP after being in power in the state for almost two years is now facing some degree of anti-incumbency. Although it won the Jalandhar by-poll held earlier this year, its vote share was around 34.05 %. “Had it remained as popular as it was at the time of the last year’s Assembly polls, this share would have been much higher.
“This also reflects that the free power sop did pay dividends but only partially. Such sops are no guarantee of continuing success. The Akalis after having won the 1997 polls had given free power to the farmers but were routed on three occasions after that.
“Today this party is facing the same allegations as have been faced by the Congress and the Akalis of continuing with the VIP culture. In addition to this is the allegation of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann promoting the interests of AAP’s national convener and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal at the cost of Punjab,” an observer pointed out.
Amid this is the challenge related to the seat sharing being called for the I.N.D.I.A bloc. In Punjab, the state units of AAP and Congress have been at loggerheads. Whether such a seat sharing arrangement as is being visualised by the central leaderships of these parties sees the light of the day remains to be seen. The Congress leadership and workers have expressed time and again that such an alliance would be very harmful for the party in the long run.
The same question marks the much talked about possibility of the Akalis and the BJP entering into an alliance again ahead of the polls. The two had fallen apart with the Akalis being compelled to walk out of the partnership during the farmers’ movement.
The BJP on its own does not have much of a following in Punjab. In alliance with the Akalis it has won Lok Sabha seats in the past. But another question is whether the saffron party would agree to play the role of a junior partner as it was in the past, given its winning performance in several state assembly elections including the recent victories in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.
The Akalis have failed to revive after the rout they faced in the 2017 Assembly polls when the Congress had come to power and a rookie AAP had nudged them to the third place in their own cradle.
It is in this context that the SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal tendering an apology last week on the emotive issue of sacrilege of holy texts that rocked the state since 2015 assumes significance. Many see this move as an attempt to rein in the other factions of the Akalis that came into existence after the 2017 poll debacle.
On December 14, Badal tendered an unqualified apology to ‘Guru Sahiban and Guru Panth’ on the precincts of Akal Takht for the sacrilege incidents and its aftermath during the Akali government.
“It inflicted deep pain on the heart of both Sardar Parkash Singh Badal and on my own that these incidents happened during the Akali government and that we could not arrest and punish the perpetrators of this heinous crime. Badal Sahib left us, carrying this wound on his heart,” Badal said
“In retrospect, I believe it was a huge blunder to allow some so-called Panthic personalities and organisations to pressurise the government into handing over the probe to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) instead of conducting it ourselves. It was only later that their game plan became clear to us but by that time the probe had already been handed over to the central agency,” he added.
Badal sent out a call for ‘complete unity in the Panth’ under the Akali flag and principles.
“I will personally attend to the grievances of every Akali worker and every Punjabi, like Badal Sahib used to do,” he said.
This apology drew strong reactions from the other parties. Senior Congress leader Partap Singh Bajwa said that this move was nothing but a futile attempt to reclaim the lost ground and an attempt to form an alliance with the BJP through this apology.
"The real traits of the Badals have already been exposed. The people of Punjab wouldn't accept his apology now. The SAD remained in power for around 16 months after the sacrilege cases, yet it deliberately failed to take any action. Now he (Sukhbir Singh Badal) has been seeking forgiveness after nine years in vain," Bajwa said.
He said that on this occasion Badal should also have told the Sikh Sangat about who had ordered the Police to fire on the peacefully protesting Sikhs in Behbal Kalan village of Kotkapura in which two Sikh youths were killed.
"It was the Badal government that registered an FIR against the unidentified Police personnel. How can the Police be unidentified? Sukhbir should have explained that too," Bajwa added.
Calling it a desperate act necessitated by ‘near-extinct’ SAD's political compulsions, the Punjab Vidhan Sabha Speaker Kultar Singh Sandhwan stated that pardon is sought for a mistake one commits in ignorance. "There can never be any pardon for an act of treason with the pious Guru Sahib,” Sandhwan said. He added that Sukhbir’s motive behind the move was to be seen.
Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann is also navigating through rough weather at this point of time with allegations and attacks flying. The latest issue has been stirred by social activist Manik Goyal through a series of tweets raising the issue of facilitation of Kejriwal at Punjab’s expense.
Goyal wrote, “Super Exclusive Did you know that 2 days ago, @ArvindKejriwal traveled in a Rs 400 crore luxury plane just to join a rally? The Delhi government never paid for his jet. Who is paying for it? Did you know he covered even 35 kms in a chopper, not in a car? Some Exclusive facts are here with radar proofs. Check out this small thread till end.” https://x.com/ManikGoyal_/status/1736953694174982425?s=20
The SAD’s general secretary Parambans Singh Romana has called for an explanation on these allegations and has demanded that the entire expenditure borne by the state government in chartering planes for Kejriwal’s travels to Punjab as well as party election campaigns in other states be recovered from the AAP.
Romana said on Tuesday that the Punjab government not only hired a Rs 400 crore Dassault Falcon 2000 LX plane at the rate of Rs 10 lakh per hour to facilitate Kejriwal’s journey from Delhi to Bathinda on December 17 but the Chief Minister himself made a detour to Bathinda while travelling from Chandigarh on the state helicopter to ferry Kejriwal to Maur, the site of an AAP rally. He said it was condemnable that Kejriwal, who professed to represent the ‘aam aadmi’, could not travel even 30 Km by road and waited for Bhagwant Mann to complete this journey by helicopter.
Even the AAP government’s claim on the number of beneficiaries at the Aam Aadmi Clinics (AAC) is being questioned amid allegations of inflated figures. Recently BJP’s national spokesperson Jaiveer Shergill while advising Mann to be more transparent and objective in government functioning had accused the latter of misleading the people of Punjab by quoting ‘inflated figures’, only to justify his failed AAC model.
The AAP ministers have been claiming that complete transparency is the hallmark of the Mann government in the state. Meanwhile, in a move to reach out to the large farming community, Mann on Tuesday constituted a committee to resolve their pending issues including compensation and jobs to the next of the kin of the farmers who had attained martyrdom, while protesting against the ‘draconian’ farm laws.
Chairing a meeting with the various farmers’ organisations in Chandigarh Mann said the committee will finalise its report by March 31, 2024 to ensure that this demand of the farmers is fulfilled at the earliest.
Dwelling on another agenda, Mann while reiterating that the state has not even a single drop of spare water to share with other states said that he will present Punjab’s case at the meeting convened by the union water resources minister on December 28.
He also announced a special drive from January 1 to April 13 during which camps will be organised in villages for consensual division of land and assured the farmers that if the food growers are not having any dispute regarding the ownership of land then the division of land will be done as per the possession of ownership. He assured the farmers that no private agency will be given the work of distribution of power in the state.
On the important issue of minimum support price (MSP) being sought by the farmers on entire agricultural produce, Mann said that MSP is the right of the farmers and the state government will take every step to protect it by supporting the farmers. He said the government will support the farmers by every way including legal, administrative and others to ensure that farmers get MSP on their produce.