The scorching summer, both the natural season and the political one, is getting intense in Rajasthan. The northwestern state is scheduled to go to the polls in the first two phases of the Lok Sabha elections on April 19 and April 26.
Rajasthan reflects the challenges faced by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, in the much sought after Hindi belt of the country. The BJP returned to power in the state Assembly last year, but at the same time a stiff fight was put up by the Congress. In comparison, in the neighbouring state of Madhya Pradesh, and also Chhattisgarh the grand old party was said to be in a comfortable position.
In the last two parliamentary polls of 2019 and 2014, the Congress had failed to open its account in any of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Will it perform any better this time as a part of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.)? This is the golden question.
The BJP may be having an advantage after the Assembly win but is it in a position to sweep the state once more, particularly when it is being underlined that the party performance had hit a plateau last time? This question also explains the saffron party’s desperation visible on the ground.
Of late, the country has been witnessing the ‘season of turncoats’ and Rajasthan is no exception. A large number of Congressmen joined the saffron front and in some cases were even given a BJP ticket. One example is the Banswara seat of Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya, a Congress heavyweight who has been a four time legislator, including in the present term and is also a former minister.
Even the Congress has fielded BJP turncoat Prahlad Gunjal on Kota-Bundi seat, and Rahul Kaswan on Churu seat. Gunjal is a former two-time legislator said to be close to former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje. Kaswan had won the Lok Sabha polls on the BJP ticket in the last two elections.
Sources on the ground say that the BJP is facing a stiff challenge in some of the seats, particularly those with a substantial Jat population, and also where discontent is overflowing within its ranks. The seats where the Saffron party is facing an uphill task include Churu, Ganganagar, Jhunjhunu, Nagaur, Barmer and Sikar.
“One needs to understand certain aspects of the situation on the ground. To begin with, the charisma of Narendra Modi has started waning. The Ram Mandir euphoria has also died down although the right wing ecosystem is trying its best to keep it alive in the conscience of the voters.
“In the Jat dominated seats in particular there are some specific challenges. There is some influence from the farmers’ agitation. The issue of women wrestlers’ protest last year is also alive.
“The most important issue where the BJP is on the backfoot in several parts of the state is the Agniveer scheme implemented for the defence forces as Rajasthan sends a large number of youth to the forces. The treatment meted out to former BJP’s Governor Satpal Malik by the party leadership also continues to rankle,” a veteran political observer said.
Observers say that Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing two rallies in three days in Churu and Ajmer explains the importance of the state in the BJP’s scheme of things. They say that the PM has chosen to talk in ‘martial tones’ knowing the inclination of the youth to join defense forces.
On Friday, in Churu, Modi said, “When the Indian Army had carried out surgical and air strikes (after Pulwama militant attack of 2019) the Congress and its arrogant coalition was seeking proof of our Army’s bravery. Insulting the Army and dividing the country is the identity of the Congress party.
“Till the time the I.N.D.I.A. coalition parties were in power, the hands of our soldiers were tied. The enemy would go after attacking and our jawans were not permitted to retaliate.
“The jawans kept seeking one rank one pension (OROP) but the Congress never fulfilled the demand. But the BJP on coming to power fulfilled its OROP promise and also gave a freehand to the forces to retaliate. Today the enemy also knows that this is Modi’s new India that enters inside the enemy territory to hit.”
Sources say that there is an interesting fight underway in Sikar where the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) candidate Amra Ram is pitted against BJP’s Swami Sumedhanand.
The Congress has five of the eight legislators from Sikar. It is also the home turf of state Congress chief Govind Singh Dotasra. Amra Ram is a joint candidate of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc.
Similarly Hanuman Beniwal, a farmer leader and sitting Lok Sabha member is in the field again from Nagaur. He is pitted against Jyoti Mirdha of the BJP. The Congress left this seat for Beniwal after entering into an alliance with his Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP).
An interesting scenario has also emerged in the Barmer-Jaisalmer seat where independent MLA from Sheo Ravindra Singh Bhati has entered the fray. His entry has disrupted the poll calculations of the BJP candidate Kailash Chaudhary who is also a union minister. The Congress has fielded Ummedram Beniwal who had recently jumped ship from RLP.
Bhati held a show of strength after filing his nomination on Friday. A youth leader who had emerged on the political horizon from the campus of Jai Narayan Vyas University, he had joined the BJP ahead of the last assembly polls but was denied a ticket.
He won as an independent from Sheo constituency. Sources say that he was once again eyeing a Lok Sabha ticket from the Saffron party, but failing to get one has thrown his hat in the ring as an independent.
Sources added that the crowds at his rally on the day of filing the nomination is worrisome for his opponents. However, many others see him as a ‘social media’ phenomenon who still has a long way to go.
At the same time there are certain distinct factors plaguing the Congress in Rajasthan. Observers say that the enthusiasm visible in the rank and file of the party at the time of the recent Assembly polls is now missing.
“Mismanagement has become synonymous with this party. The delay in announcing candidates is a cause of worry. What has happened in Banswara is particularly embarrassing.
“After Malviya who is a heavyweight switched over to the BJP and is now a candidate, the person nominated by the Congress party to contest Arjun Singh Bamaniya, a three time MLA, failed to turn up for filing his nomination.
“To begin with, this man was not the choice of the local leaders. Eventually, the party has now fielded the dummy Arvind Damor. All this does not send a good signal to the electorate,” an observer said.
“The Congress party lacks political imagination. The poor law and order situation that was BJP’s poll plank in the recent assembly polls is continuing to deteriorate. Yet this is not being played up by the Congress.
“The masses are somewhat aware of the electoral bond revelations but this needs to be driven home. Similarly there is a perception that the current regime under Bhajan Lal Sharma has diluted people centric initiatives like Chiranjeevi Yojana started by the previous Congress government under Ashok Gehlot which the BJP denies. It is all about communication,” another observer added.
At a show of strength by the Congress in Jaipur on Saturday, party president Mallikarjun Kharge said, “This fight is to save democracy and the Constitution. Modi and RSS people want to change the Constitution.
“BJP leaders say give us two-third majority and we will change the Constitution. Therefore we all have to fight to save democracy, for the rights of the people.”
He also took on Modi saying, “Indira Gandhi ji had divided Pakistan into two parts and liberated Bangladesh. Today China is slowly occupying our land here. It is changing the names of villages. But PM Modi remains silent on this issue.”
In her address, senior party leader Sonia Gandhi said, “For the last ten years, our country has been under the rule of a government which has left no stone unturned in promoting unemployment, inflation, economic crisis, inequality and oppression. What this Modi government has done is in front of us.
“That is why this time is full of despair. But hope is also born along with despair. I have full faith that our Congress colleagues will light the lamp of justice with the fire in their hearts and move forward carrying it through thousands of storms because this country is not the property of just a few people.
“This country belongs to all of us. Our ancestors nurtured it with their blood. Its air contains the salt of the sweat of our mothers and sisters. This country is the backyard of our children. The innocent children of this country cannot be deprived of their share of justice.”