Rajasthan continues with its 'riwaaz' (tradition) of choosing an alternate government every five years. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was comfortably placed to form the next government by leading in 112 seats.
The Congress was the runners up with 71 seats, at the time of filing this report. The only solace for the Congress is that it has put up a good fight, with some meaningful narratives, even if that approach was not convincing enough for the voters. The scenario was almost the same in 2018 when the BJP had won 73 seats with the Congress romping home with 100.
It is now time to understand what worked for the BJP, and what did not work for the Congress. The Congress has lost despite the outgoing Chief Minister coming up with the people centric narratives which even the BJP had to follow. A factor that was being discussed everywhere in the state was the Congress infighting.
This infighting was reflected in the visible tussle between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. The latter was seen as acting like the ‘opposition’ till a few months before the polls. No matter how much the party tried to show a united face even bringing the two together on a stage, the voters were not convinced.
Although the detailed analysis of caste breakups are still being deciphered, the central point is whether the Gujjars voted for the Congress or not. A community with around seven percent of the vote share had last time gone with the grand old party as it was convinced that Pilot would be the Chief Minister.
Their hopes were dashed and this time around the Gujjar voters had been visibly annoyed with the Congress. They have an impact on more than 30 of the total 200 Assembly seats in the state. This time the polling was held in 199 seats, in one seat polling was postponed because of the demise of the Congress candidate.
“The Gujjars did not go with the Congress this time. This appears to be evident from the results that are pouring in. The surprising factor is that even Pilot was trailing on his Tonk seat for a brief while.
“What needs to be read is how Prime Minister Narendra Modi had cleverley highlighted the injustice to the Pilot family by the Congress towards the fag end of campaigning. The fact remains that if the Gujjars had come to the Congress because of Sachin Pilot, they could also have stayed with it because of him. Why they have not is anybody's guess,” a political observer with roots in the state, pointed out.
“There are two clear takeaways as far as the Congress is concerned. One, it failed to retain the Gujjar voter base intact. Second, it was nowhere close to the BJP as far as the party organisation is concerned. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has worked very hard in this state over the last three decades and it continues to reap the electoral benefits,” another observer added.
The BJP candidates were leading in the majority of the seats in the eastern parts of the states where there is a substantial Gujjar population. Observers disclosed that the Gujjar Khaps in the western pockets were never with the Congress even during the last polls.
“The organisational handicap is visible only when it comes to the seats where the winning or losing margins are slender. It is here that the Congress has lots to learn from the RSS. It is evident that the Congress is always in contest with the smaller entities like independents and others apart from the BJP,” he added.
There are more interesting takeaways from the BJP. To begin with, there is a strong message that brand Modi continues to be saleable to the masses. This is evident from the fact that the BJP had gone into the electoral battle without any chief ministerial face and the votes were being sought only in the name of Modi and the policies introduced under him at the Centre.
This reporter had witnessed some small processions by the BJP voters in some places during the campaign where the slogans being shouted were only around Modi. The party had the psychological advantage among the voters who have a tradition of choosing an alternative government everytime.
This was evident from the response coming from many voters who were not concerned about narratives and issues but were convinced of a change in the run up to the polls.
The second important factor is the seriousness and aggression with which the party fought these elections knowing from the beginning that it had a fight on hands coming on account of popular schemes like the Chiranjeevi Yojana, and the subsidised gas cylinders that had been initiated by the Gehlot regime.
The BJP, a party known to be in election mode throughout the year, had its campaign clearly chalked out where along with announcing populist promises to counter the Congress. It laced the poll narrative with its tried and tested Hindutva plank raising issues like construction of Ram Mandir and spinning narratives around the communal incidents reported from the state.
Like in other states, its top leadership under Modi once again went in for carpet bombing its campaign on the electoral turf towards the end through rallies and road shows while raising the pitch around emotive issues.
The challenge now for the BJP is who would be the next Chief Minister from the saffron fold in the state. With former CM Vasundhara Raje having proved her strength by first compelling the party high command on getting tickets for herself and her supporters, albeit after the first list was announced, and with even some of the winning rebels known to be her supporters, she remains a strong contender for the post.
“Her body language, reports of her calling the independents ahead of the results and her meeting the Governor on Friday are signals strong enough of her being a key actor,” Aditya Kant, an observer who has been keeping an eye on the state for more than a decade and a half, said.
But there is another point of view as well. "Had the results been very close, things would have been to her advantage. With the present trends showing a comfortable gap between the BJP and the Congress, it will be the central leadership calling the shots now," another observer said.
It is being stated that the Congress needs to get down to work at the earliest if it wants to come up with a good show in the parliamentary polls in the state. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls that had followed the 2018 victory for the Congress, the saffron party had won 24 of the 25 seats with the remaining one too going to its ally, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party.