Victory Strengthens Shivraj Singh Chouhan in MP

On Sunday, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Madhya Pradesh reaffirmed its organisational prowess. Like a seasoned maestro leading an ensemble, the BJP leadership tuned their strategies to perfection, securing a triumphant victory for the fifth time in two decades.

The BJP has won163 seats, while on the opposing front, the Congress has clinched 66 seats. Delving into the numerical landscape, the BJP has secured an impressive share of over 48 percent of the votes cast across the state, while the Congress, has garnered just over 40 percent.

The Union Ministers deployed to counteract anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh were successful in the Assembly elections, with the sole exception of Union Minister Faggan Singh Kulaste, who lost by 9723 votes in Niwas. Despite facing criticism due to his son's involvement in leaked videos discussing cash transactions, Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar is leading by 24461 votes in Dimani. Simultaneously, Union Minister Prahlad Patel won by a margin of 31915 votes in Narsinghpur within the Mahakoshal region.

In the crucial Malwa region, the BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya has won by 57,939 votes against his Congress rival Sanjay Shukla from Indore-1 seat. A noteworthy development is the state Home Minister Narottam Mishra lost by 7742 votes in Datia. Rajendra Bharti, fielded by the Congress, has been contesting against Mishra since 2008 and was previously defeated by a narrow margin of 2,656 votes.

Interestingly, the Congress initially nominated Avdhesh Nayak, a Brahmin with an RSS background and a longstanding rival of Mishra, but both candidates set aside their differences to jointly challenge Mishra in the election.

Meanwhile, Congress's Chief Ministerial candidate, Kamal Nath, won in his stronghold Chindwara against BJP's Vivek Bunty Sahu, with a margin of 36594 votes. Digvijay Singh's son, Jaivardhan Singh won by a margin of 4505 votes against BJP’s Heerendra Singh Bunty Peelaghata.

Notably, among the only two Muslim MLAs, both Atif Arif Aqueel and Arif Masood, comfortably won their respective seats in Bhopal North and Bhopal Central seats.

The incumbent Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan credited the impressive victory in the assembly election to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "double engine government" and useful initiatives such as the Ladli Scheme. “Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in the hearts of the people of Madhya Pradesh. The work done by the double-engine government, whether in the Centre or the state, such as the Ladli scheme, has helped uplift people and improve their lives. All of us have worked hard together,” Chouhan told the media.

He asserted that the party would decide the next Chief Minister. This comes in light of the party's decision not to declare him as the Chief Ministerial candidate during the campaign.

Jyotirajaditya Scindia, whose rebellion led to the downfall of Kamal Nath led Congress's government in 2020 also credited Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan for the victory.

“I have always told you that as far as Madhya Pradesh is concerned, people have given all their blessings to the double-engine government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi (at the Centre) and in the state led by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan because of its welfare and development-oriented policies,” Scindia told the media.

As far as Congress's defeat is concerned, political analysts and observers are crediting it to Kamal Nath's overconfidence, too much reliance on the social media campaign, traditionally considered to be BJP's stronghold, too much reliance on Hindutva again considered to be a BJP's playfield and lack of an organisational structure apart like BJP.

Long-time journalist and political observer Shams ur Rahman Alavi said that the decisive factor leading to the victory was the campaigning orchestrated by Shivraj Singh Chauhan in the final stages of the elections. This strategic approach reversed the anticipated outcome in a state where, just a few months prior, the prevailing belief was that Congress held an advantage due to public discontent with the BJP government.

Alavi notes that despite the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment in the state and the apparent unity within the Congress against the BJP, Chauhan's campaign in the concluding phase was marked by intensity and high energy. Chauhan successfully established an emotional connection with the voters, occasionally expressing sentiments like, "Will you not be sad if I go?" Chauhan projected a modest and humble image despite holding office for 18 years, a stark contrast to his counterparts who failed to establish such a relatable connection with the electorate.

Commenting on Kamal Nath, Alvi stated that there was nothing charismatic about how he led the fight, "yes he was successful in putting up a united house against the BJP but what is the point if they could not connect with the voters".

Nath's choice not to confront Hindutva but instead acquiesce to it revealed a lack of clarity in dealing with the BJP on an ideological front. This decision is perceived as a deficiency in presenting an alternative program to counter the BJP's ideology.

Speaking to The Citizen, a Congress leader remarked, “Our party lacked a distinct ideology to challenge the BJP. It was not a clash between a progressive ideology and BJP's Hindutva; we found ourselves without a compelling and innovative narrative to present."

This observation underscores the party's struggle to articulate a distinct ideological stance that could effectively counter the narrative put forth by the BJP.

It was also suggested that Jyotirajaditya Scindia's affiliation with the BJP played a pivotal role in the party's substantial success in the Chambal-Gwalior region. In a striking political turnaround, the electoral dynamics of the Gwalior-Chambal region underwent an unexpected transformation, with the saffron Party achieving a resounding victory securing 19 out of the 33 seats.

This marked a noteworthy departure from the 2018 elections, where the Congress held a dominant position with 26 seats. However, in the recent electoral contest, Congress experienced a setback, securing only 14 seats.

Despite these results, insiders in the political arena claimed that it was Shivraj Singh Chauhan's campaigning efforts that played a more decisive role in the BJP's victory, rather than the influence of Scindia. A leader close to Shivraj Singh Chauhan stated, "If you examine the outcomes of the previous elections, the Scindias were already facing challenges; their performance in the 2018 elections was subpar.

Additionally, the BJP lost the mayoral election in Gwalior last year after 58 years. It seems that BJP has contributed more to Scindia than Scindia has contributed to the BJP." The party source asserted that the election outcome effectively quashes any lingering debates within the BJP concerning the Chief Ministerial candidate.

Shivraj Singh Chauhan has not only weathered the political storm but has emerged even more formidable. The resounding defeat of rivals like Narottam Mishra conclusively settles any doubts about leadership dominance in the state.

There is also a prevailing consensus that the 'Ladli Behna Yojana' has played a pivotal role in shaping the political landscape of the state. According to the State Election Commission, the 'Ladli Behna Yojana' encompasses over 1.26 crore female voters out of the total 2.60 crore women voters in the state. This extensive coverage constitutes 48% of Madhya Pradesh's entire electorate, which stands at 5.39 crores.

Analysts contend that the implementation of the 'Ladli Behna Yojana' had a transformative impact on the electoral dynamics. With funds already disbursed into the accounts of women beneficiaries, this scheme provided a distinct advantage to the BJP. The tangible benefits delivered directly to women contrasted with promises made by the opposition that were yet to be realised, thereby contributing to the electoral sway in favour of the BJP.

The Madhya Pradesh Ladli Behna Scheme is inclusive, encompassing all women in the state without discrimination based on caste or religion. Eligibility criteria stipulate that women with an annual family income below Rs 2.50 lakh can avail themselves of the scheme's benefits. This financial assistance, amounting to Rs 1,250 per month, is specifically designated for women falling within the age group of 21 to 60 years. The scheme aims to provide meaningful support to women across a broad spectrum, contributing to their socio-economic well-being and empowerment.

The election results show that the Congress will be a weaker Opposition in the new assembly compared to the previous one, where it had 92 MLAs, even after the defection of 22 during the Scindia-led rebellion. The updated numbers underscore a substantial shift in the political dynamics, with the BJP consolidating its influence and the Congress grappling with a diminished presence.

The election results pose several pressing questions for the Congress, urging a critical examination of its ideology and strategy. It compels the party to reconsider its stance on issues such as the caste census, centralization of leadership, and other crucial aspects in preparation for the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections.