Will BJP Woo Vasundhara Raje Again?

Former Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje stands out as the most talked about politician in Rajasthan in the run up to the Assembly elections scheduled for November.

Raje continues to perplex observers on what her next move will be. There are indications of her being sidelined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who call the shots in the party.

The former CM has been maintaining a patient stance and is not doing or saying anything that goes against the party line, despite what observers say is continuing ‘humiliation’ and ‘sidelining’. Her silence is being interpreted as a ‘wait and watch’ stance.

Indian elections are a time where public perception gets credence in the narratives and Rajasthan is no exception. Raje’s name not figuring in the first list of candidates announced by the saffron party, the reported ‘paratrooping’ of seven Parliamentarians to contest the Assembly polls, is being taken by the people and the observers with a pinch of salt. Several of those seen to be her loyalists have not got a ticket in the first list either.

The questions being discussed amid such a scenario is whether those denied tickets will contest as ‘rebels’? What will be Raje’s strategy in the face of the party giving her a cold shoulder when it comes to declaring a chief ministerial face?

Raje has been a powerful CM on two occasions, and has won both Assembly and Parliamentary polls on five occasions each. What is being ascertained is how much damage can her being sidelined cause to the BJP in terms of number of Assembly seats?

The state of affairs around Raje is also a pointer to the fact that everything is not rosy in the ranks of the saffron party. There is a point of view that regional leaders cannot be ignored when it comes to contesting state elections. These elections cannot be always won on the face value of the central leadership which in this case is PM Modi.

Observers have pointed out several instances of Raje being cornered by the BJP’s central leadership. She has been reportedly kept out of the main committees related to managing the polls in the state. These include the manifesto and election management committees.

Unlike in the past, Raje was not at the centre of the Parivartan Yatras that were started from four corners of the state last month. She was reportedly present at the flagging off ceremonies but did not participate as she was not the BJP’s face. This is being interpreted as an attempt to keep her away from becoming the ‘focal point’ of the BJP’s poll campaign.

“She is being viewed as a remnant of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani where she was a union minister and not one getting prominence in the Modi-Shah era. In recent times those who were seen as her rivals in the state have been given plum postings at the Centre. These include the names of Vice President Jagdeep Dhankar and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. There is no denying the fact that she is the most competent face that the party has as of now,” an observer said.

“As far as her style of functioning goes, one can draw parallels between her and former Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh who is also incidentally now in the BJP. Both come from erstwhile royalty enjoying a similar clout and both have had a pan state image as far as their respective states go.

“Raje has enjoyed a clout amid the Gujjar community as well despite the fact that the state saw some major Gujjar reservation agitations during her tenure. The photograph of Gujjar leader Lieutenant Colonel (retired) Kirori Singh Bainsla saluting her in 2008 had become a defining movement.

“At the same time she comes out as a typical ‘Queen’ as well, particularly when it comes to handling the bureaucracy,” underlined Aditya Kant, a chronicler who has seen her functioning from the close quarters. Kant feels that the BJP leadership has been giving confusing signals by keeping her in abeyance even as other heavyweights have taken the centre stage.

People recall that Raje’s reported comment after the Modi wave leading to BJP’s win in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, that “it was a collective victory of the party”, did not go down well with some in the party ranks who are not willing to forget it. Her insistence to remain Rajasthan centric is also seen as her flaw when it comes to the party functioning.

“It appears that she is in a wait-and-watch mode for now. It is unlikely that she will move out. Whatever she does will be done within the ranks of the party,” Rajasthan based political analyst Vijay Vidrohi said.

Interestingly, while Raje has been toeing the party line all through the recent visits to the state, of leaders like PM Modi and party president Jagat Prakash Nadda, she has also made statements that come out as assertions of her personality.

For example, in a tweet that had followed the recent passing of the Women’s Reservation Bill, she said,” Our BJP government had also given reservation to women, due to which today 50% of posts of district head, head and sarpanch in the state are women.

“For the first time there were 2 women MLAs in the state Assembly, today there are 24. After women reservation it will become 66. There were 22 women MPs in the first Lok Sabha. Today there are 66, which will increase to 181 after women’s reservation.”

Addressing an impressive gathering of women in Jaipur on September 23 Raje had said, “In Mahabharata, when Shri Krishna's finger was injured, Draupadi tore her saree and tied it on Krishna's finger. Later Krishna also protected him from the Kauravas. I will also serve you with the inspiration of Shri Krishna ji and will keep fighting for the rights of every Rajasthani.”

It is the ambiguity around her for the present that is keeping everyone guessing. The embedded media continues to fish out stories that her presence or absence would make no difference to the prospects of the BJP in the state, something that observers and analysts reject outright.

There are surveys being quoted on this count. Everyone is wondering if Raje will eventually be fielded after a delay, as has been done by the party as in the case of Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan and former Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh. For now Raje remains an important topic in the state’s election narrative.