The electoral scene in Jammu and Kashmir is becoming murky, complex and unpredictable making it difficult for political pundits to predict how it will finally unravel as the campaigning picks up.
As this is the first assembly election of the truncated and downgraded erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, public sentiment is being aroused in Kashmir Valley against what was done on August 5, 2019. The anger is largely directed against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and hence all those seen to be contesting at the behest of BJP remain at a disadvantage in the Valley.
However, in the Jammu region, the contest is straight between the Congress and National Conference (NC) alliance on one side and BJP on the other. Reading down Articles 35A and 370 of the constitution is not an emotive issue here, but the consequence of the same in terms of loss of jobs, land rights and business is a factor. In the Muslim dominated areas of the Jammu region, former Congress chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad continues to struggle to even keep his party’s flock intact, as he is seen as a pawn of the ruling party at the centre.
In the Valley, individuals and organisations that have remained always in the firm fold of separatism, preached the right to self-determination and even called for implementing “nizam-e-Mustafa” (Islamic rule), are contesting the polls. As if guided from behind, the entire effort of such individuals and organisations seems to be to edge out or substantially weaken mainstream political parties, particularly the NC and Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP).
The most curious and controversial case is that of Engineer Rashid, a member of parliament from Baramulla, who was granted interim bail on September 10, in a terror funding case under Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, for the campaigning period till October 2. People in the Valley are questioning as to how Engineer Rashid was so easily granted interim bail, as he is known to be a polarising personality and rabble rouser.
It may be recalled that Rashid was thrashed in the J&K Assembly by BJP members led by Ravindra Raina, its present state chief, on October 8, 2015, for hosting a “beef party” at the MLA hostel in Srinagar. His face was also smeared with ink at the Press Club of India (PCI) in Delhi a few days later where he had gone to highlight the lynching of a Kashmiri Muslim truck driver for alleged cow slaughter.
But not this time. As he came out of Tihar jail and thereafter at the PCI the same day, the national media gave a good coverage to his fulminations against Farooq and Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti for what happened to Kashmir in the past. It is also interesting to note that his use of intemperate language against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah for changes made in J&K in August 2019 was also extensively covered by the same media.
The crucial question is as to why he is being pandered by the media and allowed to criticise Modi and Shah on air?
By hogging the limelight, Engineer Rashid’s angry rhetoric can be expected to discredit the Abdullah’s and Mufti in the Valley and give space to other independents and members of his organisation Awami Ittehad Party to garner more votes and perhaps a few assembly seats. At the same time, Rashid’s diatribe against the central leadership can help polarise the voting pattern, with a consolidation of votes in favour of the BJP in Jammu.
Engineer Rashid is not the only one targeting former chief minister Omar Abdullah. Another curious case is that of Sarjan Ahmed Wagey @ Sarjan Barkati, who remains detained under the Public Safety Act. He was arrested in 2016 for organising violent protests in Shopian and Kulgam Districts triggered by the killing of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen poster boy Burhan Wani. Barkati’s nomination was rejected from his home constituency of Zainapora for his failure to provide a complete signed oath certificate on time.
Later, Barkati’s daughter representing him, virtually chased former chief minister Omar Abdullah by filing his nomination from Ganderbal from where he was expected to contest the elections. Expecting that Omar Abdullah may also contest a second seat for safety, Barkati also filed his nomination from Beerwah, the constituency that the former chief minister represented in the 2014 assembly elections.
Unlike in Zainapora, the returning officers found Barkati’s nominations from Ganderbal and Beerwah in order. But Omar Abdullah surprised Barkati and his supporters and filed his second nomination from Budgam and not Beerwah.
However, the participation of Jamaat-e-Islami J&K, who spearheaded separatist movement, appears to be more tactical than from any change of heart. Explaining the reasons, Kalimullah Lone, the Jamaat backed candidate from Langate, told the media that the party was facing an existential crisis after a ban was imposed on it in 2019 and its properties worth more than Rs 5000 crores were seized. He conceded that the party was in touch with Delhi since 2021 and was told to participate in the elections.
Yet another case has been registered against Farooq Abdullah by the Enforcement Directorate. Conspiracy theories abound but notwithstanding the machinations, the Valley vote seems to be consolidating. Games though are afoot with the Jammu and Kashmir elections acquiring the usual unpredictability as a result.
Avinash Mohananey retired from the Indian Police Force. He has on field experience of Jammu and Kashmir. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
Cover Photograph by BASIT ZARGAR. Engineer Rashid comes out of Tihar Jail to contest the elections.