In the first elections held in Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 35A and 370 of the Constitution, and downgrading of the status of the erstwhile state, the victory of Engineer Sheikh Rashid from Baramulla parliamentary seat stunned not only his nearest rival Omar Abdullah, but also those who had scripted these changes in August 2019.
There is nothing wrong in his victory, as Sheikh Rashid is neither a terrorist nor a separatist. In fact, he twice represented Langate (Kupwara) as a Member of the Legislative Assembly.
What is alarming for the mainstream political parties is that he was riding the wave of sympathy despite having little support in these areas. He is considered as a maverick and unpredictable having ambitions to emerge as the tallest Kashmiri leader, who can question and organise protests against the policies being pursued by Delhi.
That was the reason for detaining him just before the constitutional changes were made. Later, he was charged by National Investigation Agency under Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act and is presently lodged in Tihar Jail. A charge widely believed to have been trumped up to keep him behind the bars and hence the strong wave of sympathy.
This outcome was perhaps not in the mind of the Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who visited Srinagar on May 17 before polling was to take place on Baramulla and Anantnag-Rajouri seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was not contesting these two seats.
According to media reports, Amit Shah met the delegations of Pahari, Gujjar, Bakarwal and Sikh communities and conveyed to them that there was a need to end the “dynastic rule” in J&K. A clear and obvious message that they should ensure the defeat of Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti.
Both Omar and Mehbooba lost the elections. But certainly not because Amit Shah had told the people to do so. If his word carried weight, the proxies of BJP in these seats would not have performed so badly.
The BJP knew beforehand that it had lost support amongst the communities that it had tried to appease by making constitutional changes. Wisely, the party decided not to contest the three Kashmir Valley seats and depended on proxies to defeat Omar and Mehbooba. Not only BJP, but Ghulam Nabi Azad also smelt defeat and stayed away from the elections.
Let us begin with Ladakh. Who will forget the 21-day fast by the people of Ladakh led by environmentalist Sonam Wangchuk, in sub-zero temperatures in March this year. The protests were a unique display of solidarity between the people of Leh (largely Buddhists) and Kargil (largely Shia Muslims) notwithstanding the opposite views the two communities had on abrogation of Articles 35A and 370.
As in Jammu and Kashmir, the people of Ladakh are also demanding protection of their land, resources and jobs besides proper representation at local and national level. That could have been addressed by giving Ladakh the status of a state, inclusion of Ladakh in the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution, and two seats in the Parliament whenever the delimitation takes place.
The anger of Ladakh’s people got reflected in the defeat of BJP’s candidate, who finished third and last. The BJP also didn’t do well on the two parliamentary seats that it won in the Jammu region.
Its vote percentage was down in both Udhampur (10%) and Jammu (5%). Besides, Kashmiri migrants, who had celebrated the constitutional changes in 2019, remained aloof from the electoral process. That explains the low percentage of polling (14%) in the Habbakadal assembly segment of Srinagar parliamentary seat.
They have been agitating for lack of safety and security and demanding shifting them to Jammu after a Kashmiri Pandit employee, Rahul Bhatt, was killed by terrorists on May 12, 2022.
The BJP is caught in a bind. It converted the erstwhile state into two Union Territories, and changed domicile law in Jammu and Kashmir so that outsiders could buy land, take employment and set up industries and businesses ignoring protests by locals.
While the people of Kashmir felt humiliated at the way changes were made, the move also now doesn’t have many backers in Jammu and Ladakh. Going back would mean that the narrative created by the BJP government around the changes in the constitution has fallen flat.
Hence, Omar Abdullah’s defeat should be seen in the overall backdrop of what happened on August 5, 2019, and developments thereafter.
Is it not a defeat of the policies pursued by the BJP government in Kashmir since Governor’s rule was imposed six years ago, and narratives woven by the party?
The same narratives were multiplied manifold by hate mongers sitting in TV studios in Noida, and Mumbai to undermine and demonise leaders, who carried our National Flag high in the most difficult situations of terrorism all these years. Who will do the same now?
Omar Abdullah has already announced that he will not contest the Assembly elections. A new set of BJP proxies is unlikely to help.
The Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir are round the corner. Jamaat-e-Islami has announced it will participate in the elections, if the ban on it was lifted. The Jamaat is not new to electoral politics, but its participation now would be a much bigger challenge for the mainstream political parties than in the past.
So, how do we deal with the present situation where electoral politics is likely to be dominated by those who remain vehemently opposed to what happened in August 2019 and are willing to occupy seats in assembly through elections?
A way forward could be found to pre-empt any such surge of sentiment by first reviewing the cases of all those detained and release those who have been unjustly treated. This could be followed by the restoration of statehood of both Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh before the elections.
Third, assurance be given to the people of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh that their land, resources and jobs are safe.
This will take the wind out of the sails of separatist sentiment in the Valley, and soothe the feelings of people in Jammu region and Ladakh. Otherwise, the government in Delhi should remain prepared for unexpected results in the elections, as sentiments will overtake the politics.
Avinash Mohananey is former Director-General of Police of Sikkim. Views expressed here are the writer’s own.