Erdogan Flexes Authoritarian Muscle

Turkeye is witnessing massive demonstrations targeting President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s increasing authoritarianism. And, implicitly, his determination, one way or the other, to hold onto power. Erdogan was elected for a second term in 2023. Turkey's Constitution allows a president only two terms. Erdogan’s current term ends in2028. But if snap elections are called he would not have completed his second term and would be eligible to contest. Or else he would have to change the Constitution. It is possible that his recent moves to decimate the opposition, and the resultant turbulence, are designed to pave the way for early elections.

The current protests began after the popular Mayor of Istanbul , Ekrem İmamoğlu, was arrested on March 19, 2025. He was jailed after being charged with corruption and aiding terrorism because he had entered into an alliance with the pro Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party which supported the agenda of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Istanbul University had annulled his degree, which, if upheld, would anyway block him from running in presidential elections.

The largely peaceful protests, spearheaded by University students and backed by Professors, were said to be the largest the country had seen since the Gezi protests of May 2013 over the demolition of the Gezi park for urban development. Rallies chanting anti-Erdogan slogans and calling for Imamoglu's release, justice and rights had taken place in at least 55 of Turkeye's 81 provinces, or more than two-thirds of the country including it's 1515, in addition to Istanbul, the capital Ankara and prominent cities like Izmir.

The police had used clubs and pepper spray against the protestors and reports said that over 1900 people had been detained by the police. The Mayor’s dismissal from his post had opened the way for a Government appointee to take his place. His jailing was said to be part of the month-long legal crackdown on opposition figures and the removal of other elected officials from office. The moves were seen as an attempt to stymie the election prospects of Erdogan’s opponents.

The Government had launched an investigation into İmamoğlu activities going back to the time when he was Mayor of Beylikdüzü. The investigation was reported to have uncovered an organized criminal network led by Imamoğlu. According to the report there was evidence from the Financial Crimes Investigation Board (MASAK), technical surveillance data and testimonies of 25 witnesses which reportedly exposed that the network Set up by I’ had engaged in bid rigging, bribery, extortion, money laundering through shell companies and fake invoices, fraud, illegally obtaining personal data of Istanbul residents and tax evasion. Imamoğlu was accused of tampering with evidence after he did not hand over his personal cell phone. He had denied all the allegations.

Despite his arrest, the Republican People's or CHP, founded by Attaturk in 1923, with currently more than 1.5 million members, had set up 5,600 ballot boxes for voting across all of Turkey's 81 provinces for the primary elections. The party said that an estimated 1.7 million members were joined by 13 million non-party members in supporting Imamoglu. The CHP had repeatedly urged people to join the protests. The party had called Erdogan’s move "a coup against our next president".

Meanwhile despite the ban on gatherings and arrests the protestors remained defiant. CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel vowed that the fight would continue. The protestors demanded a boycott of the pro-government media and companies linked to the government. Mainstream broadcasters and newspapers were very supportive of Erdogan's government which had used legal and financial pressure and corporate buyouts to pressurise media houses to ensure self-censorship and toe the government line. Those not covering only the government’s line faced punishment and 10 Turkish journalists were arrested in the first days of the protests. Social media accounts were shut down and interestingly Elon Musk’s company, a proponent of free speech, had objected to the telecom and information authorities demand that over 700 accounts of news organisations, journalists, political figures, students et cetera be blocked. But it had also actually, despite its objections, blocked many accounts.

Erdogan, reacting to the demonstrations, simply said that the protests had become a "movement of violence" and that the CHP would be held accountable for injuring police officers and damaging property. He said the CHP was inciting citizens and that their show would end quickly leaving them ashamed of the damage they had done to the country.

Erdogan would by now have been quite used to people protesting against him. He had formed the Justice and Development Party(AKP)in 1999 after release from prison. He first became President in 2014. Long before that, in April 2007, nearly 300,000 people had marched in the capital Ankara to protest against his possible candidacy in the 2007 presidential election. They feared he would change the secular nature of the Turkish state.

This time too it is highly unlikely, unless the economy takes a beating, that Erdogan would back down. His past and his personality speak of a determined and, when needed, a ruthless man. He has been instrumental in ensuring a significant Turkish presence in the region around Turkeye –for example Iraq and Syria and Lebanon. He is not a darling of the Americans though Turkeyee is a NATO member. The Europeans have also been wary of giving in to Turkeye’s aggressive approach to becoming a member of the European Union though Europe is a major trading partner of Turkeye. His dealings and Turkeye's neighbourhood are less defined by what the Americans want and much more by what he feels are Turkeys and his real interests.

Germany, France, the EU and the Council of Europe criticised Imamoglu's detention, while the U.S. State Department said that it expected Ankara to act in a way "that respects the rights of its citizens. Human Rights Watch called the charges "politically motivated and bogus”, and said he must be released immediately.

A scheduled meeting of the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee was postponed after the EU side said the circumstances in Turkey were not conducive and that current circumstances are not conducive".

The current turmoil was affecting the local economy also. Immediately after the arrest and detention of İmamoğlu, Turkey's lira crashed as much as 12% to an all-time low. Turkey's economy faces challenges including high inflation, a declining lira, and concerns about external financing needs.

Over the years by projecting Turkey's military capabilities, Erdogan has managed to create an image of Turkey as a global aggressor. That, coupled with the lack of free and factual reporting by financial analysts in Turkeye and the latest political developments would dampen the enthusiasm of many foreign investors .Turkey's private sector is heavily indebted in foreign currency, raising the spectre of financial instability. But President Erdogan is said to be unconcerned that political instability resulting from his actions could deter foreign companies from investing.

It is likely that the country would witness continuing political turmoil and uncertainty. Compromise does not seem to be Erdogan’s way of managing things. His personality and his past experiences appear to have taught him to portray determination and, when necessary, ruthlessness. The media and the courts already are subservient to him. Demonstrations against his rule are likely to stiffen his belief that the actions he has taken alone can benefit Turkeye. It would not be too far fetched to imagine that he might take recourse to a snap election or even change the Constitution.

The very obvious growth of autocratic tendencies in established democracies, including the United States of America, can signal an international climate that would be conducive to increasing authoritarianism in Turkey. For Erdogan this spells the perfect moment to decimate all opposition to himself and ensure his continuing hold on power. Many sense his actions against the CHP as an attempt to demolish the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the CHP. And to replace it with a Recep Tayyip Erdoğan legacy.

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