Iran has attacked Israel. It sent 200 drones Israel’s away, some were intercepted and shot down by Israel’s defense systems, some struck the border, no one was killed and only a young girl sustained minor injuries. ran announced that this was in retaliation for the bombing of its consulate in Syria, and now as far as it was concerned this chapter was closed. The message had been sent - don’t mess with us.
However, tension spread far and wide as neighbouring countries like Iraq and Jordan closed their airports and the air space. US President Joe Biden cut short a trip to get into a huddle with his security team and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swore vengeance. Israel that had been virtually abusing the United Nations Secretary General and the institution itself, requisitioned an urgent meeting to discuss the attack. And Malta that is in the chair for the month of April agreed, without any opposition from the other member nations.
Now of course it is a waiting game as all wait for the next move by Israel and the US. Will it attack Iran? Was this the opportunity Netanyahu was seeking to expand the war? Will it earn him sympathy at home, and hence curb the protests that had been increasing for his removal? Will Washington show sense, or encourage Israel to move into war? Will the Palestinians again pay with their lives for the larger war games being played around them? Will Russia and China intervene?
These questions will no doubt be answered sooner than later, perhaps even before the day is through but there will be two reactions triggered by the Iran offensive. One we are already hearing coming out of Washington, Tel Aviv, and of course Rishi Sunak’s London, where Iran is being roundly condemned. And there is pressure building to move into a full fledged war to “finish” Iran that has been developed over the years as the bad boy of the Middle East. This view comes from those who insisted on projecting October 7 as an isolated event, for whom there was no history to the Hamas action, no abuse and assault of Palestinians by Israel on a daily basis, and who care little about consequences as they do not have the knowledge to even begin to understand the same. For them even lives matter little.
Then there is the second response that is slower in making itself heard, but will gather ground as the day and days proceed. This comes from an understanding of October 7 events against the backdrop of Israel’s occupation of Gaza, the constant assault, the virtual imprisonment of the Palestinians in their own land. Understanding that is steeped in the desire for peace, and the realisation that the Palestinian question should be resolved and the Palestinians given their sovereignty, equality, dignity and respect. There is worry though here about possible retaliation not just on Iran, but on the million plus Palestinians now crowded in Rafah in search of shelter. A response that will ask for lasting peace, and an end to retaliations and wars in the region.
The pendulum can, however, swing either way. Netanyahu will use this retaliation to get all the sympathy possible, hence the scrambling for a UN Security Council meeting. He has known, as at least sections of his media have made known, that his present and future was dependent on continued war. In that, once the attack on the Palestinians ended, he would be faced with political repercussions at home. He will now try to use this to open a front against Iran, and will whip up a frenzy of support at home for this. As well as across the world, in an effort to obliterate the images of the havoc wrought by his bomb, and the starving children of Gaza. He will try and gain political legitimacy and bring Israel out of the pariah status he had earned for it.
Whether this will be achieved through a war, or peace will now remain on the bigger players in the picture. The Americans, Russians and of course China. It is for the first time really that Iran has come out directly against Israel. It can be said with some level of certainty that it would not have taken this action without consulting Moscow and perhaps even Beijing on this. The last seven months since the attack on Gaza, the coordination and consultation between these countries has increased and intensified. And Tehran will not have moved into this level of retaliation without the assurance of diplomatic support to begin with.
Biden and his war hungry establishment would probably like to go along with Netanyahu and curtail Iran with bombs. But it is clear that such action would ensure the destruction, or at least partial destruction of Israel, as Iran has its missiles trained on it. And it will not be a war from afar and no damage. And two, Russia will not allow its ally to be attacked without entering the fray. In short, any such action now could plunge the region into war and the world into a third world war with nuclear weapons aplenty. Sane governments and voices will work hard to ensure that this does not happen.
The solution thus, will be to ensure peace in the region. Peace is the only solution as war not just ravages but opens more and more fronts — as is happening now—and brings not just the countries involved but the world to the precipice of disaster. Peace can only be brought by the resolution of the Palestinian issue, with a sovereign state and equal rights. This is staring the world in its face, and if Washington still insists on looking the other way the Big War will happen.
It is high time that the big countries at least show a level of strategic maturity, and bring all their skills into play to avert such a disaster. But then, the same countries have been unable to prevent a genocide despite it being carried out in camera view, so what hope can the peace loving people of the world have. Aid is not being allowed to reach the traumatised survivors in Gaza with the genocide continuing, as courts deliberate and governments pontificate. What hope is there that reason and peace will prevail.