It is interesting to hear former CIA operative John Perkins describing Israel an American surrogate, how the US tamed Saudi Arabia but failed to similarly tame Saddam Hussain, necessitating US invasion Iraq (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oARBdBtGenM).
This reflects the US policy for the Middle East – control of oil and resources without any other considerations; be it morality, human rights, whatever.
The recent Israeli attack on Iran has been hogging global headlines; an all-out Israeli attack, also using the new air-launched missiles penetrating Iranian air defences, destroying missiles, air defence systems, military bases and the like – in sum delivering a deadly blow to Iran.
One report says the five S-400 missile batteries, on which Iran relied for air defence were completely destroyed in the Israeli strike. The report further said that this may cause Iran to think twice before considering any response to the Israeli attack. Posts on social media are questioning why India is procuring S-400 missile systems when these were destroyed so easily.
Israel said it targeted military sites in several regions of Iran in retaliation to Iran attacking Israel on October 1. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel had crippled Iranian air defence and missile production systems. He said the strikes had "severely damaged Iran’s defence capability and its ability to produce missiles". The POTUS Joe Biden has warned Iran of dire consequences if it retaliates to the Israeli attack.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has given a measured response to the Israeli strikes, saying the attack should not be "exaggerated or downplayed" while refraining from pledging immediate retaliation.
President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran would "give an appropriate response" to the attack, which killed at least four soldiers, adding that Tehran did not seek war. But readers must listen to former British diplomat Alistair Cooke covering the above Israeli strike on Iran (https://www.youtube.com/live/txkNk76E3SI?si=0o8SlbEQBJSROmf5), which he says is with inputs from Israelis.
According to Cooke, the Israeli claims are a strategic compulsion, whereas, the attack achieved little – mainly damaging an abandoned Iranian base and a weapon research facility.
Most revealing is the fact that the Israeli Air Force encountered an “unknown air defence system” because of which subsequent waves of Israeli aircraft carrying conventional weapons could not be launched – relying only on missiles. The inference drawn is that this “unknown air defence system” has been supplied by Russia, which can detect stealth aircraft; an ability which neither Israel nor Ukraine has.
The above is a debilitating development because, as Cooke, points out, the entire Western defence system is based on stealth platforms. Israel has no defence against hypersonic missiles. Cooke further says that if Israel wants to wage war on Iran, it should bear in mind how long the war in Ukraine has been continuing, and the casualties Israel may suffer having admitted that the Golan Brigade was decimated.
Alistair Cooke’s version would likely get buried under the barrage of Israeli and Western information campaigns, but there appears to be a measure of credibility in what he says. It explains the frustration of Netanyahu in demanding the UNRWA and the UNIFIL leave Gaza and Lebanon respectively, and is continuing with the genocide in Gaza and the bombings in Gaza and Lebanon.
As of October 22, 2024, over 44,000 people (42,718 Palestinian and 1,706 Israeli) have been reported as killed in the Israel-Palestian war. This includes including 131-143 journalists and media workers (123-130 Palestinian, 2-4 Israeli, 6-8 Lebanese and 1 Syrian) according to the Committee to Protect Journalists and the ‘International Federation of Journalists. Along with 120 academics and over 224 humanitarian aid workers, including 179 employees of UNRWA.
Some months back, Israel’s Hebrew newspaper ‘Haaretz’ had reported that more than 2,800 Israeli soldiers are receiving treatment in the rehabilitation department since the beginning of the war on Gaza, and the head of the rehabilitation department said that 18 percent of injured occupation soldiers suffer from psychological symptoms. This number may have gone up considerably as Israel continues attacks in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and in Lebanon.
The US continues with the façade of wanting a ceasefire in Gaza through third countries – latest being the purported two-day ceasefire proposed by Egypt for exchange of hostages All these are unworkable because Israel will not release the 4,500 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons in exchange for Israeli hostages and after the ceasefire Israel will continue operations in Gaza and west Bank.
The Hamas condition for releasing the Israeli hostages has always been linked to Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire. The US charade of sending Secretary of State Antony Blinken hopping around the Middle East like a peace dove doesn’t fool anyone.
The Middle East is sitting on a powder keg because Netanyahu will not stop, he probably feels that Hamas/Palestinians can be wiped out (with the two-state solution not acceptable to the US and Israel), as well as Hezbollah, while the US and the UK hammer the Houthi.
The quantum of Iranian support to Hezbollah remains ambiguous and so is the possibility of the Lebanese armed forces getting drawn into the war. But what has become the war of civilizations is being looked at very seriously.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has called for action against Israel/Netanyahu for aggression against Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as for the US to suspend arms supplies to Israel. Saudi Arabia has reportedly also agreed to a joint naval exercise in the Red Sea. According to reports, Iran doesn’t want to escalate the situation but wants a ceasefire, which Netanyahu is not agreeable to.
So, it is a Catch 22 situation, the onus of which lies on Netanyahu. In all probability, Israel will continue operations in Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon. Should Iran be forced to retaliate, the situation may escalate to any level, with Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities, even as Netanyahu’s finger hovers over the nuclear button.
Lt General Prakash Katoch is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed here are the writer’s own.