US President-elect Donald Trump is known to be unpredictable. But he created a sensation when he decided to invite Chinese President Xi Jinping along with other world leaders for his swearing in on January 20, 2025.
This is unprecedented in the history of the US since 1874. It is normal for ambassadors and diplomats of foreign countries to attend the swearing in of the POTUS but never has a foreign head of state attended the event.
The specific mention of inviting XI Jinping no doubt is intriguing as it comes against the background of Trump calling China the greatest threat, tensions over Taiwan and a war of words over ongoing sanctions and tariffs. Donald Trump has also threatened to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods and Xi Jinping’s has issued a reciprocal threat to do likewise.
So, was the invite to Xi a test to gauge China’s reaction, or is this an acknowledgment that decoupling with Beijing wouldn’t be easy, given that China has control over rare earths and is the industrial powerhouse of the world compared to the US, which as they say even imports toilet paper?
A direct US-China war will mean considerable mutual destruction as China appears to be surging ahead in certain spheres of military technology.
Xi has reportedly turned down the invitation to attend Trump’s inauguration which is hardly surprising. Didn’t Henry Kissinger say, “To be an enemy of the US is disastrous, but to be a friend is fatal”? Why then would Xi accept the fake act of friendship?
Moreover, like all global powers, China too is adept in deception but then Xi doesn’t believe in pretense. And has not hesitated to warn the POTUS directly not to cross China’s redlines over Taiwan and that the merger of Taiwan with mainland China is inevitable as it is part of China.
The question remains who are the foreign heads of states being invited for Trump’s swearing in or has the idea been dropped with Xi rejecting the invitation? Logically, heads of NATO countries, G-7 leaders and American allies could be the invitees. But what about heads of states that are non-NATO allies, particularly what about India?
The personal rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Domal Trump in the latter’s first presidency was more than apparent. Modi took the unprecedented step of raising the slogan Ab Ki Baar Trump Sarkar on American soil, in the presence of Trump in July 2020 at a congregation of the Indian Diaspora. This was a first for any foreign head of state to help elect a presidential candidate in the US.
However, in 2024, before PM Modi went to attend the last Quad summit chaired by the POTUS Joe Biden, Trump had said that the Indian Prime Minister will be coming to meet him. But the two did not meet. Did Modi’s foreign policy experts advise him so; calculating that Trump had little chance of winning with all the court cases piled up against him? Couldn’t they have advised the Prime Minister to meet both Trump and Kamala Harris – was this by design? Modi did congratulate Trump on winning the election but is it the same?
Now speculation is running wild whether the Indian Prime Minister will be invited for Trump’s swearing in. Ever ready to needle Modi, Subramanian Swamy, BJP member and former Rajya Sabha MP, says External Affairs Minister (EAM) has been sent to the US in a last minute bid to arrange an invite for Modi to Trump’s swearing in
Jaishankar would have gone to the US to gauge the Indo-US relations at the fag end of Joe Biden’s regime and understand what to expect from Trump’s takeover. But the social media is chattering - Jaishankar may use AI to chalk out an invite for Modi who would land up just before the swearing in, leaving no choice for Trump but to applaud; Jaishankar could offer another massive defence deal in exchange for an invite such as the F-35 fighter jets to make up IAF’s shortages. Speculation is rife, bordering the ridiculous but at the centre of this is the ‘invite’ - yes or no.
Indo-US relations are nowhere close to a high presently. Trump has mentioned raising the tariffs against India, as well as BRICS members who are talking of an alternative to the Dollar. This would certainly impact the Indian economy. Perhaps, this is why Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is trying weird measures to extract more and more money from citizens, especially the middle class, with some netizens terming it taxation terrorism”.
Trump has selected Indo-American lawyer Harmeet Dhillon as assistant attorney general for civil rights, a pro-Khalistan sympathiser who has been accusing India of targeting Sikh activists in North America – while Trump has praised Dhillon's defence of civil liberties and her challenges against social media companies and pandemic restrictions.
Then there is the CIA’s pet weasel,Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a Sikh terrorist who threatens terrorist attacks during the Maha Khumb in India and asassination of Indian politicians including the Prime Minister. But the US has absolutely nothing to say about this.
America’s social media giants, the Henry Luce Foundation and George Soros’ Open Society Foundation blatantly interfered in the Indian elections. Now the US-engineered coup and regime change in Bangladesh threatens India’s security. This indicates that the US is hell bent on destabilizing India and South Asia, which is not surprising. After all, when did the US want a strong India anyway with its interest centred on capturing the Indian market, especially in the field of defence. The talk of a “bullwork” against China is actually to use India as a proxy (Ukraine-style) in a war with China.
It has been quite apparent that the US detests India-Russia relations even as it is economically benefiting by importing Russian oil refined by India and then selling it to Europe at higher prices, But the news of Russian President Vladimir Putin visiting India in early 2025 on PM Modi’s invitation would not be welcome to the US administration. Would this be in January – coinciding with Trump’s swearing in or after that around India’s Republic Day?
Finally, according to CBS, Trump plans to invite world leaders to the inauguration believing that relationships with world leaders are “key to international deal-making” and he has been meeting some world leaders already. Logically, Modi should be part of the foreign leaders invited for the swearing in; leaving him out would not augur well for India.
Lt General Prakash Katoch (Retd) is an Indian Army veteran. He is a writer and columnist. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.