Washington, Riyadh Behind Imran Khan’s Ouster ?

Pakistan’s key allies are keeping a discreet distance from former Prime Minister Imran Khan. They are watching from afar as his supporters continue to throng the towns and cities of Pakistan demanding his release from jail and reinstatement to the top political office.

If reports are to be believed one of those influential allies, the United States, may even have played a role in his political downfall.

Imran Khan is part of a long line of top Pakistani politicians who have served jail terms in their own country, usually at the instigation of the country’s military establishment. Former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was first jailed and then hanged for what were thought to be trumped up charges.

Former President Asif Zardari, husband of assassinated ex Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, also spent time in jail as did former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Khan’s backers are fearful that vindictive military generals, spooked by Imran’s massive popularity, intend to keep their hero in jail indefinitely, perhaps even poisoning him if the need arises.

They could easily exploit revelations made by a former wife, Reham, who alleged in a book that Imran was a habitual consumer of drugs with cocaine as his stimulant of choice.

Among the scare stories being played out by Pakistanis living abroad is one that anticipates Imran Khan succumbing to a cocktail of drugs that Islamabad subsequently explains as a by-product entirely of his own making. Hence the intensity of continuing nation-wide protests from those who fear the worst is yet to come.

Khan’s own reported statements to his lawyers, claiming he was being held in“distressing” conditions, have fuelled the flames of protest.

Last week Imran’s current wife and self declared living saint (‘Pirni’) Bushra Bibi visited her husband in his Class C cell in Attock jail, subsequently telling his legal team that all was well.

This was reassuring news for those millions of Pakistanis who believe their fallen leader is indeed the victim of a massive conspiracy cooked up by the current political establishment working hand in hand with the army’s top generals.

Beyond the borders of Pakistan it is the response of the country’s traditional international allies that is so intriguing. The most important is the US, a staunch friend for more than 60 years, that kept Pakistan afloat with repeated generous transfers of cash and weapons.

Some of those weapons were used against India, but later also against the Soviet Union when Moscow invaded neighbouring Afghanistan in 1979. Armed resistance to the invasion, funded by the West, contributed to the downfall of the Soviet Union.

When he first came to power in 2018, Imran Khan was ostensibly committed to maintaining the special relationship with Washington. But he seemingly did an abrupt U-turn last year, by visiting Moscow on February 24, the same day that Russia invaded Ukraine.

His so-called ‘aggressive neutrality’ about the conflict has angered the US, according to reliable political and diplomatic sources. Earlier this month details of a leaked diplomatic cable dating back to 2022 confirmed US concerns about this February 2022 visit to Russia.

The now widely distributed diplomatic cable highlights US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu allegedly telling Pakistan’s ambassador to the US Asad Majeed, “I think if a no confidence vote against the Prime Minister succeeds, all will be forgiven in Washington because the Russia visit is being looked at as a decision by the Prime Minister. Otherwise, I think it will be tough going ahead.”

One month after the Lu-Majeed meeting, Imran Khan lost a no-confidence vote in Parliament and was removed from office. Pakistan’s foreign ministry has not commented on the leaked cable. In Washington a spokesman for the State Department said, “Allegations that the United States has interfered in internal decisions about the leadership of Pakistan are false.. they have always been false and they remain false.”

At least as important as relations with the US are Pakistan’s ties with Saudi Arabia. Millions of Pakistanis work in Saudi Arabia and the two countries have long maintained a ‘cordial and brotherly’ relationship.

Yet Saudi Arabia has refused to exert any discreet pressure to secure Imran’s early release or at the very least improve his jail conditions

Riyadh’s links with Imran Khan came under renewed strain in 2020 when Saudi Arabia refused to convene an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit to condemn Indian policies in Kashmir, including New Delhi’s decision to revoke the state’s autonomy by abolishing Article 370 of the Indian Constitution.

Khan is said to have been enraged by Saudi Arabia’s studied neutrality on Kashmir, partly explained by India’s rise as a major global power and also by the value of Saudi-Indian bilateral trade, currently estimated at more than US$25 billion. Bilateral trade with Pakistan is valued at a mere US$ 3 billion.

Yet Imran Khan has only himself to blame for how he was treated by the Saudis during his last year in office. In 2019 Saudi Arabia’s all powerful Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) loaned Imran his own private jet to attend the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Unbeknown to Khan the aircraft’s hidden cameras and microphones recorded every unflattering comment he made about the Saudi ruling establishment during the 18-hour flight from Islamabad to New York.

Salman never forgave Imran Khan for what was recorded and the same Saudi royal aircraft was understandably not available for Imran’s return trip from New York back home to Pakistan. Instead he was obliged to use a commercial flight.

Imran Khan is additionally alleged to have offended UAE President Mohammed Bin Zayed, although the details of their differences have never been disclosed. Like Saudi Arabia, the UAE is also a source of employment for millions of Pakistanis who remit their earnings back home to Pakistan.

Khan is said to have been incensed when Bin Zayed conferred the UAE’s highest civilian award on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In the foreseeable future Imran will have to rely, for personal political survival, on the street power that can be mobilised by his political party Tehreeq-e-Insaaf, also known as PTI. Earlier this year a nationwide survey conducted by Gallup confirmed Imran as the country’s most popular leader.

For months on end supporters have been gathering like swarms of political bees beneath the distinctive red and green colours of the PTI flag. In cities like Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi and Peshawar, they take to the streets, singing PTI songs.

One favoured street tactic is to collectively echo the taglines of their jailed leader. Hence the popularity of slogans like, ‘Together for a better world’, ‘Creating hope, Inspiring change’ and the party’s own unique slogan, ‘Justice, humanity and self esteem’.

In an effort to discredit him, Imran Khan’s political rivals have tried questioning the legitimacy of his popular support. In an interview broadcast by Pakistan’s GeoNews outgoing Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif appeared to argue that Imran had relied for survival on support from former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa.

“Mr Khan also received military support during his tenure. His government was a blend of various components, despite his accusations against others for the same. Every government requires backing from key sectors, including the military”, Sharif commented.

Shyam Bhatia is the author of ‘Goodbye Shahzadi’, a political biography of Benazir Bhutto, and a senior independent journalist based in the UK. Views expressed are the writer’s own.