Can Alcaraz End Big Four Dominance At Wimbledon?

The chief reason why the GenNext set of players have taken so long to catch up with the Big Three is their sub par showing at Grand Slams. They have won several titles on the circuit including Masters 1000 events and the ATP Tour finals but their overall display at the four Majors has been rather dismal. Only Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev figure as Grand Slam champions and they have won just one each both at the US Open. When it comes to these events Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have stamped their seal of superiority many times over.

This is particularly so at Wimbledon where from 2003 to 2022 the singles title has won by these three while Andy Murray for a time part of the Big Four has his name on the trophy twice. In the remaining 17 years – the tournament was cancelled in 2020 owing to the pandemic – Federer has won eight titles, Djokovic seven and Nadal two. At least in other Grand Slams the event has been a few other players over the same period but it is at Wimbledon that their dominance has been complete.

Such thoughts will be uppermost in the minds of tennis fans as Wimbledon starts on Monday. This time of course there is no Federer (retired) and Nadal (injured and taking a lengthy break). Murray has been a rather spent force for some years now due to injuries and surgeries though of late his results have shown an improvement. But at 36 and ranked No 38 and with a whole set of fitter and younger players around there is very little chance of him winning a third title and his first since 2016.

So does all mean that the way is clear for Djokovic to extend his record number of Grand Slam titles to 24? The manner he has been playing of late suggests that along with the fact that Carlos Alcaraz apart there is no other serious contender. The 20-year-old Spaniard is involved in a ding-dong tussle with the Serb for the No 1 ranking that has changed hands several times of late.

With his victory at Queen’s club last week Alcaraz has taken over at the top with Djokovic hot on his heels. The reigning US Open champion showed that he is at home on grass by winning his maiden title on this surface and this should stand him in good stead at the Big W. His taking over at the top of the rankings should also boost his confidence.

However the favourite still must be Djokovic who at 36 has made it clear that he has no intention of resting on his laurels now that he is the player with most Grand Slam titles having bagged Number 23 at the French Open last month. He has won Wimbledon the last four times it has been held and when the field included Federer and Nadal. He and Alcaraz are seeded to meet in the final and that will be the ultimate clash of the generations.

But of course one cannot just be dismissive of the chances of some of the other players whatever their record at Wimbledon. The best performance has been quarter final appearances by Taylor Fritz and Jannik Sinner both last year. Under the circumstances it will be a major surprise if the winner is not either Djokovic or Alcaraz.

The two of course clashed in the much awaited French Open semifinal but too much should not be read into the result. Alcaraz’s injury early in the third set after the players had shared the first two sets robbed the match of its competitive edge with Djokovic romping home.

The women’s singles event has its own Big Three headed by Iga Swiatek and including Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. Despite her dominance in the rankings and the number of Grand Slam titles she has won – three French Open and a US Open – the world No 1 hasn’t exactly shone on grass underlined by her best performance at Wimbledon – a fourth round exit in 2021. Sabalenka who has one Grand Slam title – this year’s Australian Open - has a slightly better record than Swiatek at Wimbledon having made it to the semifinals in 2021. So could the favourite this time be Elena Rybakina who besides being the defending champion also made it to the Australian Open final this year.

But then the women’s field has been an open one ever since the exit of Serena Williams. There really has been no dominant player. This is best driven home by the fact that since Serena won her last Grand Slam in 2017 – the Australian Open which left her with 23 career Grand Slam singles titles, one short of the all time record held by Australia’s Margaret Court – the 25 Grand Slams have been won by no less than 15 different players.

The problem with the young challengers is that none of them has had a particularly impressive record at Wimbledon. The best is Ons Jabeur reaching the final last year. All the other contenders – Jessice Pegula, Caroline Garcia, Coco Gauff and Maria Sakkari - have all made comparatively early exits whatever their performances at other Grand Slam events. So it will be a surprise if the winner is not from the Big Three.