Tunisia - Despair In Democracy’s Name

It appears that increasingly in some countries the term “Democracy” has come to represent a convenient mantle for the worst kind of authoritarianism and dictatorial tendencies. One such country is Tunisia-the land of the Jasmine Revolution that overthrew the autocratic rule of Zine al Abedin in 2019

It had ushered in the flavours of real freedom with the mushrooming of political parties; the emergence of multiple media outlets and channels; legitimisation of the activities of civil society groups and social groups and the expectation that what the people had achieved would be strengthened in the coming decades and there would be no reversal to autocracy or dictatorship.

Today, after a five year rule by President Kais Saied, those dreams and expectations have been, to put it mildly, dashed.

Tunisia would be holding general elections on October 6, 2024. The date was announced by President Kais Saied on July 2, 2024.

The President announced his own candidacy for a second term on July 19, after a short delay from the announcement of the elections. Explaining his candidacy on Facebook Saied said that his decision was taken "to continue the national liberation struggle,".

Saied, a non-party jurist, had won the run-off presidential elections in 2019 against Nabil Karoui with 72.71% of the vote. A victory largely grounded in the Tunisians' disgust with established non performing political leaders and with corruption.

Saied had promised that he would ensure the sovereignty of the people; give the country genuine democracy and rid Tunisia from corruption. His promises had resounded initially leading to his victory, but disillusionment with his approach to democracy and governance had set in quickly.

In April 2022 Saied had dissolved the Parliament, and in July 2022 held a referendum to amend the existing 2014 Constitution which he said was not sacrosanct. Many of the checks and balances of the 2014 Constitution disappeared, giving the President the power to appoint the Prime Minister and the Cabinet.

In the process of fashioning the changes to the Constitution the major political parties had not been allowed to be party to the discussions. Members of the dissolved Parliament who had held an online meeting were threatened that they would be charged for “conspiring against state security”.

The independent judicial council was disbanded and also the independent electoral commission. A committee including six national organisations including the powerful labour union UGTT was set up, also without the participation of the political parties, to define reforms.

Military courts were used by the President to punish his critics with political leaders critical of him being jailed on a variety of charges. Increasingly, the impression had gained ground among the political leadership and among the people that Saied wanted to establish one man rule and a dictatorship.

In early May 2022, thousands of Tunisians demanded a return to the normal democratic order and rejected his replacement of the independent electoral commission with his nominees. Slogans such as "The people want democracy" and "Saied has led the country to starvation" were reported to have been raised by demonstrators in the capital, Tunis.

The President continued to take recourse to the judiciary, which had become an administrative function of the executive branch under the control of the president, and the military to curb dissent.

Despite the protests since 2022 there had been absolutely no change in the approach towards the governance of the country by the President. In effect it had become clear that all his pre-power declarations of protecting genuine democracy and the sovereignty of the people were consigned to the dustbin.

And it was in this environment that he had announced his candidacy for a second term through the next presidential elections to be held in October 2024

The process of charging and arresting Opposition political leaders and also charging the lawyers defending them had started in 2022. Saied had said all those arrested were terrorists and that there was no way that he would hand over power to these “non-patriots”.

Since February 2023, Tunisian authorities have opened criminal investigations against at least 40 people on unfounded accusations in relation to trumped up charges of conspiracy that Amnesty International reported were unfounded. The investigations fell under 10 provisions of the Tunisian Penal Code including Article 72, which mandates the death penalty for trying to “change the nature of the state.”

The following are just a few cases demonstrating political life under Kais Saied:

Mondher Znaidi, a prominent potential candidate who is living in France, is also facing prosecution on suspicion of financial corruption.

Abir Moussi, the leader of the Free Constitutional Party and a prominent candidate, has been in prison since last year on charges of harming public security.

One of the 11 presidential candidates, Nizar Chaari, said his campaign manager and a volunteer member had been arrested and that police had confiscated the signatures he had received from the public endorsing his candidacy.

A court sentenced another candidate, opposition party leader Lotfi Mraihi, leader of the Republican Union Party, and one of the most prominent critics of President Kais Saied to eight months in prison on a charge of vote buying. It also imposed a lifetime ban on Mraihi running in presidential elections.

A judge barred candidate Abd Ellatif Mekki, from appearing in the media or travelling around the country.

Mondher Znaidi, a prominent potential candidate who was living in France, was also facing prosecution on suspicion of financial corruption.

Abir Moussi, the leader of the Free Constitutional Party and a prominent candidate, had been in prison since last year on charges of harming public security. Abir Moussi and Ghazi Chaouachi, leader of opposition party at-Tayyār ad-Dīmuqrāṭī (Democratic Current) had both been imprisoned since last year.

The offices of the powerful Ennahda party had been shut down and The party President and former speaker of parliament Rached Ghannouchi and two party vice presidents, Ali Laarayedh and Nourredine Bhiri arrested.

Ghannouchi was arrested in April 2024 for warning that Tunisia would be threatened with a "civil war" if left-wing parties or those of political Islam such as Ennahda were shut down. None of them had been formally charged.

Ghannouchi’s daughter Yusra had termed her father’s arrest as a gross human rights violation and with other family members of Tunisian opposition figures detained by the government had approached the African Court on Human and Peoples' Rights. The leader’s arrest had drawn criticism from Amnesty International and the United States’ administration.

Tunisia's National Salvation Front, comprising the main opposition parties including the once-influential Islamist movement Ennahdha had announced a boycott of the presidential elections unless political opponents were released and judicial independence reinstated.

Ahmed Najib Chebbi, the Front’s leader, had told a press conference in Tunis that The Front would not participate in the absence of conditions for fair and democratic elections. The Front demanded the release of imprisoned politicians, the independence of the electoral commission, judicial independence, and reopening the Ennahda party's headquarters which had been closed by the authorities last year.

The 11 Opposition figures who hoped to run against Saied had recently issued a joint statement criticising the authorities and stating that “The violations have affected most of the serious candidates to the point that they appear to indicate a desire to exclude them (from the election) and restrict them in order to make way for a specific candidate,” hinting at Saied trying to clear the field for himself.

None of the 11 Opposition leaders had yet obtained a document certifying that they had no criminal record, a new condition for registering as candidates.

The National Union of Tunisian Journalists had reported a media crackdown with more than 60 journalists, lawyers and political opponents subjected to prosecution.

Seventeen non-governmental organisations (NGOs), including Human Rights League, and six Opposition parties criticised government control of public media, the judiciary, and the Elections Commission.

In the midst of this crackdown on his potential rivals, Saied had sought to ensure his own future by demanding that all presidential candidates should grant lifelong immunity to him before the election--a move to thwart any future action against him.

The President’s actions had impacted on the economy. Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for a $2 billion loan have stalled since the 2021 power grab, with Saied rejecting reforms demanded by the body. But in June, the European Investment Bank had announced grants and loans worth 450 million euros ($480 million) to support infrastructure projects as well as small and midsize businesses.

The economic distress was evident with unemployment at 15 percent and around four million people living in poverty in a country of 12 million.

The situation had deteriorated to such an extent that there was a massive escalation in Tunisians undertaking very dangerous journeys across the Mediterranean to get into Europe.

Tunisians have been among the major participants in irregular migration to Europe. Italy has been a favourite destination and has been pressing the International Monetary Fund to unblock funding for Tunisia, that has not been released because of the President of Tunisia refusal to accept IMF conditions.

The reasons for the Tunisians attempting irregular migration to Europe are multifarious. They include a worsening economic situation at home, poor career options, the social repercussions of unemployment or underemployment, and pessimism about the ability or willingness of Tunisia’s political leadership to improve the situation in the country.

Given his performance over the past five years it is highly unlikely that this President will in any way make concessions that could result in the presidential election taking away his power.

The concessions that the Opposition is demanding are likely to encourage him to take a harder stand irrespective of its impact both on Tunisia’s reputation and its social and institutional structures.

It is somewhat amazing that so far he has been able to retain the support of the military as that is about the only force that could possibly push him to change direction.

Saied has assiduously courted the military since coming to power. He had given several ministerial posts to senior military officers and made it a practice to have regular highly publicised meetings with the military top brass.

On the military’s side there is the appreciation that the continued support of the presidency could strengthen the political and institutional role of the military. It could also help reform the conscription system and thereby burnish the military’s image in society.

While in the past it was the Ministry of the Interior that called the shots with regard to issues of security and counter terrorism there has been a shift favouring the military. The increasing internal and external security challenges related to terrorism and conflicts in other countries in the region have translated into massive budget increases for the military.

Saied has depended more on Military Tribunals which have been given a more extensive role in trying civilians.

At the same time some reports suggest that sections of the military apprehend that if Saied continues on his current path it could damage the military’s relationship with the Western Countries particularly the US.

Saied’s authoritarianism has drawn criticism from the country’s Western partners and supporters. It has led to a reduction of the United States’ support for 2024 creating unease about the extent of future military support.

As Jean-Baptiste Gallopin has written, “Protest is not enough to topple a dictator: the army must also turn”. He quotes Leon Trotsky who wrote “However solitary the power of an authoritarian leader might seem, dictators never rule alone. When enforcers shirk duty or rebel, the regime collapses. When they stay loyal, the regime stands. Mass protests alone are never enough”.

Saied has been trying to make sure this eventuality would not be his destiny. But one needs to wait and see what happens on October 6, 2024. The Tunisian people might just surprise everyone.