Will Sheikh Hasina Bow Out Gracefully?

After the Bangladesh Supreme Court struck down the controversial quotas in recruitment for white-collar government jobs on July 21, the nation-wide student-led violent agitation on the issue was expected to end. But it did not end.

In fact, it got worse, because the government of Sheikh Hasina spurned calls for talks to find a negotiated settlement on a fair quota system. The government continued to arrest students and activists in thousands, accusing them of planning to overthrow her by force.

Hasina banned the Jamaat-e-Islami in an effort to tarnish the image of the agitation by giving it a pro-Pakistan and radical Islamist colour. The Jamaat-e-Islami was part of the agitation, but it had not set the agenda. The agenda had been set by university students, civil society and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which are secular and nationalistic and not pro-Pakistan unlike the Jamaat.

But the Hasina regime’s repressive actions only strengthened the resolve of the agitators to continue the struggle and progress from seeking a dialogue on a rational job quota system to the broader issue of getting back the people’s right to democracy.

To top it all, the students adopted a one-point programme – forcing the government to quit and liberate the country from “fascism.”

Nahid Islam, coordinator of the student platform that led the quota reform protests, made the announcement from a mass gathering at the central Shaheed Minar on the Dhaka University campus on Saturday.

Nahid Islam announced through the megaphone: “We have reached a decision about a one-point demand, to ensure safety of human life and establish justice in society. The demand is the downfall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the incumbent government, as well as abolition of the fascism.”

‘Reuters’ reported on Sunday that at least seven people were killed and dozens injured in clashes when police fired tear gas and lobbed stun grenades to disperse tens of thousands protesters calling for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign.

At least three people were killed and 50 injured in the north-eastern district of Pabna during a clash between protesters and activists of Hasina's ruling Awami League, witnesses told the media. Two more were killed in violence in the northern district of Bogura, hospital officials said.

Internet and text message services in Bangladesh have been suspended since Thursday. The agitators had in the meanwhile, secured the support of the Western democracies and their institutions.

The European Union, United Nations and the United States expressed deep concern about repression in Bangladesh and had called for restraint on the part of the government and the speedy restoration of democratic rights.

On August 2, a bipartisan group of 22 US Senators and Representatives jointly wrote to Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying: "Given these alarming and continuing trends, we hope that you will lead the US Department of State in upholding the shared democratic principles that have long underpinned the US-Bangladeshi relationship.

“The United States must condemn all acts of violence, ensure critical civil liberties, such as the freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, are protected, and take action to hold complicit government officials accountable for the above abuses against the Bangladeshi people.”

The letter further said that the United States must work with the international community to support the right of the Bangladeshi people to a representative democratic government that upholds human rights and respects individual freedoms in order to prevent the further deterioration of democracy in Bangladesh.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had called in the army to restore order and the army’s patrolling the towns did bring violence down. So far, the army has not been used to stop people from gathering in large numbers whether in capital Dhaka or other towns.

But there is speculation as to whether Hasina will ask the army to move in and restore order so that she could observe with solemnity the 49th anniversary of the assassination of her father and founder of Bangladesh Sheikh Munjbur Rahman on August 15.

But the army appears to be cautious. Army chief General Waker-us-Zaman, addressing his officers on August 3 said: “The Bangladesh Army is a symbol of the trust for the people and it will always stand by the people and support the nation in any situation.”

Gen. Zaman gave directives to his men and answered several questions. But his main concern was to see to the safety of the public, of state assets and key installations “under all circumstances.” He also instructed officers to perform their duties with “honesty, integrity, and fairness.”

Sources in Bangladesh said that there is little or no chance of an army coup because of three reasons: (1) Past experience in Bangladesh shows that people get tired of military rule and struggle to overthrow the Generals (2) The Hasina government has looked after army personnel’s life-style interests (3). Army men fear US sanctions.

The US had earlier sanctioned some top officers of Hasina’s favourite force, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) for human rights violations.

The student movement has now expanded beyond recognition, taking into its fold multiple issues and not just quotas in government employment.

Syed Manzoorul Islam, an educationist and emeritus professor of Dhaka University said in an interview to the daily ‘Prothom Alo’ that the movement is an outburst of long pent up anger and frustration over a variety of issues.

“We have had economic development, but inequality has increased. There is widespread poverty at the marginal level. Channels for free thinking have been blocked for students in the universities. They have no way to express dissenting views. The instinctive qualities and expressions that make youth indomitable were neglected.

“And so there were all indications that their agitation could go out of hand at one point, but the government leadership made no effort to read that correctly. So, primarily the fault lies with the government.”

Furthermore, politics had gotten detached from the people.

Prof. Islam added, “Our elections were questionable, there was no multiparty participation and so no active parliament. Transparency and accountability were absent. The blame lay on each and every political party, but most of all upon those who ran the government. There was no participation of the youth in our politics.

“On top of that, un-reined corruption, lack of justice, widespread looting, syndicates’ control of the market, excessive centralization and vested interests derail politics.”

The students are seeking a change of guard hoping that it will usher in the needed change.

But the question in Bangladesh, for the moment, is: “Will Sheikh Hasina bow out gracefully, paving the way for a peaceful transfer of power, or will she have to be forced to go?”