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While a lot is being said and debated about the Lok Sabha poll results at the national level, it is also essential to read the messages that have emerged for the various states as well. For instance Punjab is sending out multiple narratives for the political forces at both the national as well as regional levels.
Punjab’s political messages need to be taken seriously because of its distinct traits. To begin with it stands on the international border with Pakistan where a national minority of Sikhs is in majority. The state was the pivot of the historic farmers’ movement that led to the withdrawal of the three controversial farm laws passed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government at the Centre.
The farmers took a pole position in the recent polls in this primarily rural state and affected the outcome. With their issues remaining unresolved, they will continue to be a force to reckon with in the socio-political domain in the coming days. Third, the election of two independents who are seen as ‘radicals’ is something to watch out for in the days to come. Their victory has certain strong political connotations for this state where religion and politics often cross each other.
The 13 constituencies of Punjab went to the polls in a single phase. The state witnessed a voting turnout of approximately 62%, with over 2.14 crore eligible voters exercising their right to franchise. There were a total of 328 candidates in fray across the 13 sets.
There are clear warnings coming from the results for the key players till now to pull up their socks for the future battles in the political arena. One can start with looking at the performance of the key political forces in the state.
The Congress won seven of the 13 seats while the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had to contend with a victory on just three seats. The Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) managed a facesaver in the form of a victory in Bathinda while the remaining two seats were grabbed by independents.
This was one state where the Congress and the AAP did not contest together under the Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A), and in most of the seats they were contesting against each other.
This was the first time in the last almost three decades that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Akali Dal did not contest in alliance and went into the battle separately. Both had to face the consequences of going to the poll battlefield alone.
The BJP despite not winning a single seat in the state has been the biggest gainer in terms of vote share. The party that had a vote share of a mere 9.63 % in 2019 saw it doubling to 18.56% in the recent polls.
This was for the first time that the party had contested all the 13 seats on its own. Till the last elections it used to contest only three seats while its ally the Akali Dal used to contest the remaining ten.
The BJP managed a good show particularly in the urban areas that have a sizable Hindu population that is its core voter support base. The performance is also commendable keeping in mind the fact that the BJP candidates were not allowed to campaign by the farmers across the rural areas as a part of their ‘Punish BJP’ campaign.
The party’s central leadership is obviously seeing a window of opportunity in the state and has nominated Ravneet Singh Bittu who lost in the Ludhiana seat as a minister of state. Bittu is the grandson of former Congress Chief Minister Beant Singh. He had joined the BJP ahead of the elections after being a two term Congress MP from the seat.
The BJP has been scouting for credible faces, particularly Sikhs, in the state. It has largely been successful in its endeavour having managed to get leaders like former CM Captain Amarinder Singh, his wife Preneet Kaur, former state Congress chief Sunil Jakhar, and former Indian ambassador to the United States of America Taranjit Singh Sandhu among others. It has been aiming for a long term political haul in the state and has managed to lay a foundation for the same.
Jakhar who is the state unit chief of the BJP posted on the social media in Punjabi after the results, “Many thanks to all the people of Punjab for enthusiastically participating in this great festival of democracy in general elections.
“Thanks also to all the BJP workers and leaders who kept the party flag high in Punjab even during the anti-democratic environment created by some forces. Also, congratulations to the Election Commission of India who successfully carried out this big task. Bharatiya Janata Party thanks everyone who played a role during the election process.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first act after assuming office for the third time has been the release of the next instalment under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Nidhi. It is being pedalled as an overture towards the farmers.
Jakhar tweeted saying, “In the very first decision of the new Cabinet, Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi has approved the release of the next instalment of the PM Kissan Nidhi. Kudos to the PM for this decision taken for the welfare of our farmers. Our Government is committed to safeguarding the interests of our Annadatas.”
Coming back to the vote shares, the Congress despite winning the maximum number of seats has witnessed its vote share declining from 40.12 % in 2019 to 26.30 % this time.
In the case of AAP, it has worked the other way round.
While its vote share has surged from 7.38 % in 2019 to 26.02 % this time, it could manage to win just three seats. It needs to be recalled that the party had recorded a landslide victory in the last Assembly polls winning 92 of the total 117 seats barely two years ago. Another factor that its leadership needs to contemplate seriously is that it led in only 33 of the 117 assembly constituencies during the recent polls.
The party for which the results are a major concern is the Shiromani Akali Dal-Badal. It has witnessed its vote share plummeting from 27.45% in 2019 to 13.42 %.this time. It could manage to win only one seat of Bathinda where its candidate Harsimrat Kaur Badal won for the fourth consecutive time.
This party which has the distinction of being India’s oldest regional political force continues to be pushed to the margins of Punjab’s polity. It has a rich history of having led many battles on the federal front in the past.
Even after the recent results its president Sukhbir Singh Badal felicitated regional leaders Chandrababu Naidu, Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, Uddhav Thackrey, Akhilesh Yadav and other leaders of the regional parties on their creditable performance.
In his separate communications to them, Badal said that his party will support any initiative towards strengthening the federal structure of the country with emphasis on greater fiscal autonomy to states.
“As a regional and Panthic party, we are very happy over the people’s mandate given to the federal impulse in the country. In Punjab, we will work to strengthen this impulse further,” he said.
The party losing its Panthic credentials is something of a big worry for its leaders and cadres. This party always claims to represent the interest of the Panth and has had a stronghold on the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC).
But it has seen the erosion of the Panthic base on the issue of the sacrilege of holy texts for which the people of the state continue to wait for justice. Its cadres were found defending the party saying that the Akalis were “defamed for the instances of sacrilege and both the Congress and the AAP have failed to provide justice on the issue after coming to power in the state”.
Its alliance with the BJP till 2020 when it had to walk out at the height of the farmers’ movement against the three controversial farm laws has also had a bearing on its poll fortunes.
Interestingly, it has been the two Independent candidates, the self-styled radical preacher Amritpal Singh, and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa who is the son of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s assassin Beant Singh, who have claimed the Panthic space in the two constituencies of Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot.
While touring these areas in the run up to the polls, this reporter was often told that the Panthic space lay vacant because of the failure of the Akali Dal to address the concerns of the community and it was up for grabs.
There were enough indicators pointing at the victory of the two independents whose supporters carried out a campaign that calls for a case study. They lacked the resources in terms of modern day tools and manpower but yet scripted a success story. Amritpal continues to be lodged in a jail in Dibrugarh in Assam while facing charges under National Security Act.
Both these candidates played up the two issues of continuing drug menace and the denial of justice for sacrilege of holy texts in a big way in the rural hinterland. Their supporters said they wanted to take the youth on the path of religion. After his victory, Khalsa told the media persons, “I will work in accordance with the wishes of the people to particularly erase the menace of drugs. I will also raise my voice seeking justice in the cases of ‘beadbi’ (sacrilege).”
In fact Sukhbir had tried his best to present his party as the sole force in the interest of the Panth in the run up to the polls. While campaigning in Khemkaran and Zira he had said that certain forces who wanted to weaken the Panth and panthic organisations were trying to disturb the peace of Punjab.
He had appealed to the Punjabis to understand that certain agencies were trying to create the same conditions which had led to the destruction of peace and communal brotherhood earlier. He had urged people to recognise those people who were flaunting panthic credentials but were actually bent on backstabbing the Panth.
“I appeal to you to support Prof Virsa Singh Valtoha who is the true epitome of panthic conduct and sacrifice. If we do not do this then tomorrow even the Shiromani Committee will not be safe”, Sukhbir added. He said the BJP led central government had facilitated the RSS to capture the managements of Takth Sri Hazur Sahib and Sri Patna Sahib.
He added that even the Shiromani Committee was broken to create a separate gurdwara committee against the sentiments of the Sikh community. Sukhbir had also alleged that the Centre had gone back on its 2019 promise to release the ‘Bandi Singhs’.
Attacking the Congress he had said, “Sikhs can never forget the manner in which Indira Gandhi attacked Sri Darbar Sahib with tanks and mortars on June 1, 1984. Nor can they forget how thousands of their brethren were massacred on the streets of Delhi and elsewhere in the country subsequently under a Congress sponsored programme.”
But these efforts proved futile. However, the party is back to raising federal concerns immediately after the polls. After Bittu’s anointment as a Union Minister, senior Akali leader Bikram Singh Majithia said that Bittu should ensure reversal of all anti- Punjab decisions whether it is about Punjabi employees working in Chandigarh or discriminating against Punjabi language in official work.
He said Bittu should request the union home ministry to reverse its decision to grant land in Chandigarh to Haryana for establishment of a separate Vidhan Sabha.
Asserting that he was confident that Bittu would work to safeguard Punjab’s interests, Majithia said: “If this is done it will pave the way for the transfer of Chandigarh to Punjab as stated in the Rajiv - Longowal accord which was acknowledged by both houses of the Parliament as well as by successive governments at the Centre. Even Haryana is committed through the Punjab Accord to the transfer of Chandigarh to Punjab which Bittu should pursue earnestly.”
Meanwhile it remains to be seen whether Amritpal will be let out of prison to attend the Parliament proceedings, and also how Khalsa takes up issues concerning Punjab in the Lok Sabha. Both of them will have to take an oath on the Constitution of India.
It also remains to be seen how the ‘radical’ narrative around them plays out in the days to come not only in Punjab but in other parts of the country as well. It is being speculated by the people that their victory will be used by the right wing to spin ‘anti Punjab’ narratives in other states for achieving political and perceptive goals.
On the other hand, the Congress leadership in the state after the results played up the acceptance of the party by the masses. The state unit chief Amarinder Singh Raja Warring and leader of opposition in the state assembly Partap Singh Bajwa attacked the BJP for freezing the Congress party accounts.
Bajwa reiterated that even the defeated candidates had shown commendable effort, underscoring the unified and collective spirit of the Congress party.
Warring said that all tactics by the opposition leaders to demean Congress leaders during the election campaign had faltered. He further highlighted how the turncoats were shown the door by the populace of Punjab and proper governance and work for the state was given priority by the people.
After the results, Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann told the three winners from the party to fulfil their responsibility of representing the state’s interests with full honesty and dedication. He directed the three AAP MPs to work equal to 30 MPs for the development of Punjab.
The party’s victory in Sangrur has come as a big reprieve since the seat is seen as the AAP’s political capital in the state. It is a seat that was represented twice by Bhagwant Mann in both 2014 and 2019 polls.
The party had lost it to Simranjeet Singh Mann of Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) during the by-poll necessitated by Bhagwant Mann becoming the Chief Minister. Now it has been recaptured by Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer who claimed that ‘Sangrur was, is and always will be the capital of the AAP’.
Pointing out that the AAP’s vote share has enhanced from 7% in 2019 to more than 26% during the current polls, Bhagwant Mann added that that party will certainly analyse and overcome shortcomings, if any, in its working and try to improve it. He claimed that the development process in the state was jeopardised because of the model code of conduct being in force.
In the last few days Mann has been visiting various Lok Sabha constituencies taking stock of the political situation on the ground. He has been having discussions about the development works and the issues specific to the areas. He is also encouraging the party workers and legislators to work harder on the ground level.
After being in power for the last two years, the party is facing anti-incumbency on various fronts. The issues that annoyed the voters the most were the deteriorating law and order scenario, the party’s failure to curb the menace of drugs across the state despite its tall promises and the failure to deliver on the issue of the sacrilege of holy texts.
