Bihar - BJP On Tenterhooks

Having won 39 of total 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, sitting on a pile of 53.25 percent vote share, no wonder the National Democratic Alliance ( NDA ), especially the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is confident of riding the high tide of popularity, confident of making a clean sweep this time as well. The I.N.D.I.A. bloc, on the other hand, is beginning with a clean slate, having won just one seat in 2019, Kishanganj, which the Congress’s Javed Ahmad won, with 7.7 percent vote share.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which had contested 19 seats, drew a blank. The combined vote share of Congress and RJD was a paltry 30.61 percent. Congress had contested nine seats last time too.

The question this time is whether it can get any better for the NDA and whether there is anything further to lose for the I.N.D.I.A. bloc? The answer to this question will decide which way the outcome will move because Bihar, like Uttar Pradesh, also votes in all the seven phases.

Even though BJP leaders are posing confidently, the ground reality in Bihar has changed since 2019. For one, the BJP has not been able to stir up any single emotive issue and is banking solely on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘magic’, and Hindutva wave, especially since the consecration of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya.

The Ram mandir in Ayodhya and the majestic consecration programme did impress a huge section of Hindu voters, but that euphoria has subsided. The temple definitely is an issue, but not strong enough to override all other problems facing people at large.

In 2019, one big plus point was the presence of Janata Dal-United (JDU) in the NDA alliance. The JDU had contested 17 seats and won 16. Even though the JDU is still with the NDA, contesting 16 seats, its flip flop in the meantime has angered Bihar voters, especially Muslim voters.​ They had steadfastly stayed with Nitish Kumar despite his dalliance with the BJP because he had convinced them of his secular credentials. But post 2020 Assembly election, Nitish Kumar’s credibility has taken a big hit.

He bolted out of NDA in 2022 to join hands with RJD and formed the government. But he couldn’t stay there for long and broke away again in January 2024 to return to the NDA fold. All this jumping around has reduced Nitish Kumar to a comic figure and this time around, he is likely to suffer a big setback in the Lok Sabha election.

“The NDA will suffer big losses because of Nitish Kumar. He will bring the NDA tally down substantially because he has completely lost his credibility. People are also suspecting him of becoming mentally unstable,” prominent Pasmanda Muslim leader from Bihar, Ali Anwar said.

Anwar, formerly an ally of Nitish Kumar who was instrumental in getting Muslim support for him in Bihar, had parted ways in 2017 when Nitish ditched the Mahagathbandhan with RJD and Congress and joined hands with the NDA . Anwar, who wields substantial support among Pasmanda Muslims, claims that the Muslim voter this time is completely aligned with the I.N.D.I.A. alliance and this would make Nitish lose.

It is important to mention here that out of the four meetings the PM has addressed in Bihar so far, Nitish Kumar has been missing from two of them, in Gaya and Purnea that were held on April 16. This is being seen as a result of his blabbering in a meeting in Nawada on April 7, in Modi’s presence, that the NDA will win “4000 seats” this time. When he realised his mistake, he was seen touching the PM’s feet to apologise.

“This makes people feel humiliated. After all, he is the Chief Minister of the state. Also his umpteen declarations every time he is with the PM that now he will not go anywhere, makes people squirm. He is becoming a liability for the BJP now,” Shakti Yadav, a close associate of Tejaswi Yadav, said.

Also favouring I.N.D.I.A. is the energy and buoyancy being displayed by RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav. According to Anwar, Tejaswi, who was a green horn during the 2020 Assembly election, had proven his mettle by making RJD the single largest party then, single handedly.

The RJD leader Laloo Prasad Yadav was in jail at that time. Since then, Tejaswi has matured and is also being guided by his father, who is now out on bail. Tejaswi is literally singlehandedly leading the RJD campaign in Bihar and is a huge hit among the youth, especially his take on providing jobs is being lapped up by the young crowds at his rallies. The RJD is contesting on 26 seats.

Political observers are also noticing a shift in RJD’s stance: the party had displayed an extraordinary willingness to include non-Yadav OBCs, like Koeris, Kurmis, and Kushwahas, into the fold. At least 10-11 RJD candidates are from non-Yadav categories and this should pay dividends to the party.

Also noteworthy is the fact that the I.N.D.I.A. bloc has made space for the ultra left Communist Party of India- Marxist–Leninist Liberation (CPI-ML) by giving them three seats this time. The CPI-ML has substantial hold in the central Bihar region and their exemplary performance in the 2020 Assembly election had taken everyone by surprise.

In addition, the I.N.D.I.A. alliance has allotted one seat each to the CPI and CPM as well and this could help it make inroads into the extremely backward classes (EBCs) which so far had been assumed to be on Nitish Kumar’s side.

But what pulls the I.N.D.I.A. alliance down in Bihar is the lacklustre show of strength in the Congress camp. Having been totally left at the mercy of Laloo Yadav in Bihar, the Congress, which had won one seat last time, is looking completely lost.

The state of disarray in the Congress camp is evident by the fact that it could not get even Purnea from RJD , one seat where it had a chance of winning because Pappu Yadav, who had recently merged his Jan Adhikar Party with Congress, was a popular leader with a fair chance of winning.

But Laloo Yadav’s dislike for Pappu Yadav is an ‘open secret’ in Bihar because Laloo does not want another Yadav leader challenging the supremacy of his son Tejaswi. Hence, no matter how much the Congress tried, Laloo did not yield the seat to Congress.

This resulted in Pappu yadav rebelling and filing his nomination as an independent candidate from Purnea. This will definitely queer the I.N.D.I.A. pitch and may even help BJP win.

But despite the odds, if political observers are to be believed the I.N.D.I.A. alliance is capable of winning 50 percent seats. “Provided elections are free and fair and the circumstances are normal,” Anwar said.

It is a long journey that began from April 19 and will last till June 1, but Bihar is likely to keep the BJP on tenterhooks. The state voted on four seats on April 19, in the first phase: Gaya, Aurangabad, Nawada and Jamui. While Jamui and Gaya are reserved seats, Aurangabad and Nawada are general seats. All these seats are held by NDA at present.