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If the road to Delhi passes through Uttar Pradesh then the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is facing roadblocks all the way. The rise of the I.N.D.I.A bloc in UP, and the resultant failure of the BJP and its allies, is clearly the most decisive trend in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
It also confirms that Ram Mandir and the politics of Hindu-Muslim hate did not bring any positive results for the saffron party. Till around 6 PM, the BJP had won three seats in UP and was leading in 29 seats.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi won by a margin of 1.52 lakh votes over his Congress party rival Ajay Rai. However, this is a significant loss for Modi who had won by a margin of 4.79 lakh in 2019.
Accused in the case of sexual molestation of women wrestlers, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh’s son Karan Bhushan Singh has won from Kaiserganj by a margin of 1.48 lakh votes. The third victory for BJP is from Bulandshahr where Dr Bhola Singh defeated his Congress rival by 2.75 lakh votes.
Officially, Congress’ Rakesh Rathore has won the Sitapur seat by 89641 votes and Tanuj Punia from Barabanki (reserved) seat by 2.11 thousand votes. The party is also leading in Saharanpur, Amroha, Rae Bareli, Amethi and Allahabad. People on the ground confirm all these victories but the Election Commission is yet to authenticate it.
Similarly, the Election Commision of India (ECI) had substantiated only one of Samajwadi Party’s 37 leads. It was Dimple Yadav from Mainpuri who defeated her BJP rival Jayveer Singh by 2.21 votes.
Unofficial reports also confirm the victory of Faizabad candidate Awdhesh Prasad by 30400 votes, Kairana’s Iqra Choudhary by 68,000 votes, and Shiv Pal Singh Patel from Pratapgarh and Anand Bhadauriya from Dhauraha.
Aazad Samaj Party-Kashi Ram President Chandrashekhar has won the Nagina (reserved) seat by a margin of 1.51 lakh votes against the BJP candidate. Here the BSP is in the fourth position, and this speaks volumes of the kind of hold BSP now has in Western UP where there is a sizable Jatav vote.
The I.N.D.I.A bloc is well ahead of the BJP and its allies in Uttar Pradesh. The Samajwadi Party is leading in 36 seats and Congress in five. Together, they are leading in 41 of the 80 seats.
On the other hand BJP is ahead in 29 seats with very precarious margins. Its latest partner Rashtriya Lok Dal is ahead in both its seats. Apna Dal-Sonelal President and Union Minister Anupriya Patel is ahead in Mirzapur while it is trailing in the other seat of Robertsganj by more than 1 lakh votes.
The NDA partner Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party’s (SBSP) lone candidate Arvind Rajbhar, son of Om Prakash Rajbhar, was trailing in Ghosi by more than 1.58 lakh votes. Similarly, NDA’s other partner Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) candidate Pravin Nishad, son of its President Sanjay Nishad was trailing from SP’s Nishad candidate Laxmikant Pappu Nishad by more than 91,2800 votes from Sant Kabir Nagar.
The Union Ministers who have lost include Ajay Kumar ‘Teni” from Khiri. His son had mowed down several farmers during a protest during the farmers’ agitation in Khiri. Despite the opposition’s demand the Modi government didn’t drop Teni from his government.
Other ministers in Modi’s government who have lost are Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma from Jalaun, Kaushal Kishore from Mohanlalganj,Mahendra Nath Pandey from Chandauli , Smriti Irani from Amethi. The official announcement is but a formality.
Defence minister Rajnath Singh has managed to retain his seat of Lucknow. Noticeable BJP candidates trailing are former Chief Minister Kalyan Singh’s son Rajveer Singh from Etah, and Maneka Gandhi from Sultanpur .
At first glance it can be safely said that the imminent success of the I.N.D.I.A bloc clearly appears to be the triumph of Samajwadi President Akhiesh Yadav’s ‘Pichre’ (backward) Dalit and Alpsankhyak (minorities) or ‘PDA’ platform. The SP, largely perceived to be a party dependent on the Muslim-Yadav (MY) factor, has expanded its social base to include non-Yadav OBCs in a big way.
Kushwahas, Mauryas, Nishads, Bind, and other most backward castes found a respectable place in SP’s lists of candidates. As many as 13 tickets went to Kurmis (Patels) . On the other hand only four Muslims and five Yadavs (all family members) were given tickets.
The SP-Congress alliance largely ensured the consolidation of Muslim votes, except in constituencies where Mayawati’s BSP, strategically fielded Muslim candidates to damage the prospect of the I.N.D.I.A bloc candidate, for instance in Pilibhit where Jitin Prasad is leading due to Behenji who has fielded a Muslim candidate.
Interestingly, even the Dalits appear to have shifted towards the SP. The most glaring example is Faizabad (Ayodhya). Akhilesh fielded party veteran Awdhesh Prasad, a Pasi, in a general seat against BJP’s two-time MP and a Rajput leader Lallu Singh. In Ayodhya, the epicentre of Ram Mandir, Prasad won by a margin of 30400 votes.
Dalits support further shifted towards the SP after Mayawati’s manoeuvrings became clear. There was a definite design in the way she distributed tickets which were meant to undermine the I.N.D.I.A bloc candidates’ prospects, and it is doing so in a big way as the results are proving.
Most scandalous was the manner in which she disgraced her own nephew and successor, Akash Anand, by stripping him of all responsibilities after he delivered a hard hitting speech against the BJP in the early phase of the election. Akhilesh was quick to come out in Akash’s defence, on his social media account.
This social justice plank of the Congress-Samajwadi party also kept the polls narrative positive addressing issues of day to day survival faced by the most marginalised, rampant unemployment, inflation, farmers distress, stray cattle menace, paper leaks and the large scale inequity, discrimination and violence on the basis of caste and religion and most important guaranteeing to uphold the ‘Samvidhan’ (Constitution) from which common citizens derive their rights and dignity.
As the trends firm up it will become clearer how many inroads the I.N.D.I.A bloc has managed to make in the ‘Lotus land’ of UP.
