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Ahead of the polling on May 7, there are certain indicators of political unease in Gujarat, the home turf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.
The PM hit the ground addressing rallies at various places in a bid to create a wave in the state in the favour of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The party had secured a 100 % strike rate in the last two Parliamentary polls.The BJP is looking at a hattrick, but there are several issues that have risen to worry the ruling party in the state.
To begin with, the Kshatriya protest that started with the community opposing the BJP’s Rajkot candidate Parshottam Rupala over a comment made by him seems to have slipped out of the BJP’s grip.
The protest and subsequent mobilisation of a large section of the community is no longer confined to Rajkot. It has spread to parts of North Gujarat and Central Gujarat as well.
Sources on the ground disclosed that notice boards have appeared in certain villages asking the BJP functionaries not to enter the premises in these areas. Interestingly, some of these villages are merely 20 km to 30 km away from PM Modi’s hometown of Vadnagar that has been treated by the embedded media as ‘centre of the universe’ over the last decade.
Meanwhile, the Congress, despite being marred by large scale defections, is putting up a stiff challenge on the seats of Banaskantha, Sabarkantha and Patan in North Gujarat along with Anand in Central Gujarat.
Interestingly, the Gujarat Rajput Samaj Organizations’ Coordination Committee reportedly gave up protests against any public meetings by Modi citing deference to his office.
Some residents of the area told The Citizen that more than the Congress it is the common people who are questioning and holding the BJP responsible on certain issues. This has perhaps happened for the first time in the last two decades.
While messages are being circulated about what has been delivered by the Modi led government in the last one decade, there are also questions being circulated about the BJP leadership, including Modi, ignoring local issues.
There are three dimensions being given to the Kshatriya protests and anger as well. One is that it has gone out of the BJP’s hands.
The second is that it can actually help the BJP through “reverse polarisation" with the Patel community that is at loggerheads with the Kshatriyas backing it along with the other backward castes (OBCs).
The third is that the Congress has pitted candidates from communities that can check this reverse polarisation. In Rajkot Rupala’s opponent is Paresh Dhanani, a Leuva Patel who is expected to get the backing of the powerful community. Rupala is a Kadva Patel. Incidentally both of them are not local and hail from the neighbouring Amreli district.
Similarly, in Jamnagar the Congress has fielded JP Maraviya who is again a Leuva Patel against Poonamben Madam of the BJP who comes from the Ahir community.
“It is interesting to see the BJP not talking about its own achievements but attacking the Congress manifesto again while raising the issue of minority appeasement again. It appears that the party leaders are on the defensive.
“They are not talking about the local issues. Only in Banaskantha did Modi talk about the relief that the Narmada canal brought to the people.
“There is a clear divide. The middle class is for Modi while there is discontent among chunks of OBCs and the poor,” Suresh Samani, who has an ear to the ground on the political developments in the state, said.
A Rajkot resident himself, Samani added, “The apologies offered by Rupala to the Kshatriya community have not worked. Of course the Kshatriyas are not a monolith and are divided into sects and sub sects but the resentment has spread to North Gujarat as well as parts of Central Gujarat.”
Meanwhile, there is a standoff brewing between the Dalits and the BJP in North Gujarat following the arrest of Satish Vansola who is the personal assistant of Congress MLA Jignesh Mevani on the charges of sharing a deep fake video of Amit Shah.
The Dalits have called for a “BJP Dhikkar Sammelan” on May 4. A message calling for Dalit mobilisation stated, “Why target Dalits alone when the BJP’s entire IT cell circulates several videos insulting Dr Bhim Rao Ambedkar?”
In Gujarat, the BJP is known to take the poll campaign to a different tangent. This was visible once again when on Thursday, Modi revived the Pakistan narrative to the poll campaign.
He reportedly called the Congress a ‘mureed (devotee)’ of Pakistan. Referring to Pakistani minister Chaudhary Fawad Hussain’s appreciation for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, he said that Pakistan wants to see the ‘Shehzada of the Congress’ as the Prime Minister of India.
On Wednesday, in his rallies in Banaskantha and Sabarkantha, Modi had said that since 2019 the Congress had accelerated its campaign to insult him and had called the “entire Modi and entire OBC community” dishonest. He added that “just because Modi is from Gujarat, the Congress tried to spread hatred against Gujarat across the country.
It even said bad things about his family, Modi alleged. He also raked up the infamous Shah Bano case in his address saying how the Congress had brought about a law to overrule a Supreme Court judgement.
Knowing his constituency, he once again said that India has changed now as it does not give dossiers to terrorists but takes them to task in their den.
Referring to his campaign, Ahmedabad based Professor Hemant Shah said, “He does this in every election because they (BJP) have nothing else to talk about except this rustic matter.
“The scenario is such that the party leaders repeat what Modi says. If he does not talk about real issues, why would the others?”
Shah added, “It needs to be understood that if the BJP loses some seats here it would be a dent in ‘Brand Modi’. The opposition winning two to four seats can bring about an earthquake in Gujarat politics.
“The Kshatriya protest has spread to small villages. With the Dalits and minorities joining in, it definitely is a matter of concern for the BJP.”
On Monday, Rahul Gandhi had addressed an impressive gathering in Patan. Where he said that there is a fight between two ideologies. “The question is whether India's democracy and Constitution will survive or not.
“People of the BJP and RSS want the Constitution to be abolished and we, the Congress Party and Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) are protecting the Constitution.
“Whatever we got after Independence, be it education, health, development, water, whatever the poor people of India got, the reason for it, its foundation is the Constitution and today for the first time the BJP leaders are openly saying that if we win the elections, we will change this Constitution, tear it down and destroy it,” Rahul Gandhi said.
He also listed the Congress’ roadmap for protecting the interests of the business community while listing other guarantees being offered by the party.
