Maharashtra - A Maha Disappointment For BJP?

Maharashtra is expected to be a ‘Maha Disappointment’ for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led Maya Yuti that was formed with the blessings of Prime Minister Narenda Modi. This is because the reports coming from Maharashtra after the five phases of polling for the Lok Sabha are not encouraging for the ruling party.

The state’s BJP leaders are nervous and unsure of retaining the number of seats the party won in the last elections. The ruling party had won over 40 of the total 48 seats in Maharashtra together with the united Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray.

According to some BJP leaders who are experienced in election management, “the undercurrent was against the establishment. While in some constituencies, the fight between Marathas and OBCs became visible, in other places Maratha leaders were opposed by Marathas and stopped their entry in villages. This showed their anger against the established Marathas.”

However, the senior BJP leaders, including ministers, are reluctant to share their feedback with the media persons. The state BJP officials are privately blaming the Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party for the setback. “They are the liability. Had the BJP contested all 48 seats on its own then we would have won 35 seats,” an official who wished not to be named, said.

The BJP could have fought Thane, Nashik, Hingoli, Aurangabad, Osmanabad, Ramtek seats but left it to the alliance partners. “Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) did not have a candidate in Osmanabad, we provided them one, while Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena nominee in Aurangabad lacked political infrastructure , connect with the people. We led his campaign. Amit Shahaji decided on the BJP candidates in Maharashtra and we had to follow his line,” the BJP leaders said.

They also asked why should the party defend Ajit Pawar, Sunil Tatkare, Ashok Chavan, and tainted leaders of the allies against whom the BJP had fought in the past?

If former Maharashtra Chief Minister Ashok Chavan who switched over to the BJP from the Congress on the eve of the Lok Sabha polls,faced people's anger in his home constituency Nanded, the NDA candidate in Aurangabad Sandipan Bhumare was ‘imposed’ by the BJP high command ignoring local sentiments. Although Bhumare is a minister in the Eknath Shinde government and belongs to the Shinde’s Shiv Sena, he is not a known face in this constituency.

On the other hand ,Union Minister Raosaheb Danve who has been winning the Jalna Lok Sabha seat since 1999 without a break, had faced strong opposition from the Congress's Kalyan Kale, the leaders said.

The Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra was fought on local issues. “Modiji addressed elections rallies which were more than the meetings he had addressed in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls”, the leaders said, conceding that it had not created a wave in BJP’s favour.

The BJP can win 15 to 19 seats but the NDA comprising Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, is unlikely to cross 24 seats. This is the assessment of the BJP workers in the state on the basis of the feedback they got after the polling.

Though the selection of candidates worked against the BJP, the sympathy factor for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar damaged the prospects of the BJP and its allies in this election.

“The opportunistic alliance with the Shiv Sena and the NCP factions seemed to have gone against us in this election where Modi magic did not work in the state,” they said.

The BJP lacks confidence to fight the elections on its own in the state in its 'golden days ‘ and under the leadership of Narendra Modi. It claims to have the support of its new vote bank, the beneficiaries of the government’s welfare programmes that include free food grains, Ujwala Yojna, LPG cylinders, housing schemes.

In this election, Modi’s aggressive Hindutva campaign failed to consolidate Hindus in Maharashtra .This was seen during the election campaigning. Interestingly, the BJP’s plank of communal polarisation proved counterproductive as it consolidated 14 percent minorities, eight percent backward communities and disillusioned the ‘floating voters’.

They wanted some relief from the price rise, job creation and better civic amenities including the drinking water supply. This is because about 70 percent Maharashtra hardly gets a daily supply of drinking water. But the BJP leaders said they did not come for voting in large numbers and thus will not affect our winning chances.

The talk of ‘corrective measures’ including the change of guard has begun in Maharashtra even before the announcement of the election results. While Ajit Pawar’s NCP demanded 90 Assembly seats, the BJP reminded it that it is the big brother in the Maha Yuti and will contest more Assembly seats than the Shiv Sena and the NCP factions.

Meanwhile, a section of the BJP also feels that the Maha Yuti experiment could end before the state Assembly polls expected in October this year.