Rajasthan Votes Today

The political broth simmering in the north western state of Rajasthan, over the last several months, is now ready to be served. Voters who decide the state’s political future for the next five years by exercising their right to franchise on November 25.

Whatever the results are, there are many interesting takeaways from the election campaign this time. Some of them are likely to have a bearing on the bigger battle for the Lok Sabha scheduled to be held early next year.

These Assembly polls have marked the return of the old narratives. To begin with there is a big return to the more than three-decade old clash of ‘Mandal versus Kamandal’ politics with the Congress raising the pitch on the caste census.

The party that had largely kept out of the other backward caste (OBC) politics has taken this forward with its senior leader Rahul Gandhi talking about the promised caste census in his rallies pushing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on the back foot on the issue.

The BJP has gone aggressive on its Hindutva plank through its leaders and well organised foot soldiers. There have been talks on the ground about the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the Kashi corridor and the shrillness generated on communal issues and Sanatan dharma.

In a style that has become the hallmark of this well-greased poll machinery, the BJP leaders took to high pitched carpet bombing strategy at the fag end of the campaign. Top leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah hit the campaign trail.

There is a point of view that during the last five years Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot had worked meticulously on the issue of caste by creating multiple caste specific boards, knowing well how caste is specific to several traditional vocations. Many observers see this as a tool to blunt Hindutva in the long run.

The second important narrative that returns with these elections is the politics of public welfare or populism. Both the key parties, at least for now, have talked of public welfare in the all-important sectors of employment, women safety and welfare, health benefits, cheap cooking gas and other social security benefits.

Gehlot set the narrative with his popular Chiranjeevi scheme, giving cooking gas cylinders at Rs 500 and offering a legislation on the old pension scheme that he has implemented. The BJP has counterbalanced these in its manifesto or vision document while raking up the issue of women’s safety in a big way.

Politically speaking both parties are going in the battle with certain handicaps. The Congress is carrying the burden of the infamous political tussle that state witnessed between Gehlot and Sachin Pilot although there have been strenuous efforts to project unity.

The Gujjar vote that comprises more than 8% of the electorate had largely gone with the Congress last time. Whether the grand old party can retain this segment this time after Pilot was denied the top post last time remains a big question.

“In the last elections there was a miniscule difference of hardly half a percent between the Congress and the BJP. A small swing in vote share can make a big difference in this state,” Aditya Kant who has been keeping an eye on the state politics for the last several years, pointed out.

Another major handicap for the party is the issue of paper leaks which the BJP has taken to town in a big way. The Congress workers and leaders have defended saying that prompt action was initiated in the matter and have countered by narrating instances of paper leaks in the BJP ruled states of Uttarakhand and Gujarat among others. But for the voters what matters is things in their immediate vicinity.

For the BJP, the biggest handicap has been the party going into the battle ‘headless’. multiple faces are being seen as potential chief ministerial candidates. On the ground the party was campaigning only in Modi’s name.

The rebellion witnessed during the selection of party candidates and the rampant factionalism pointed at by observers makes one remember the famous quote by one of erstwhile party stalwarts Lal Krishna Advani where he had expressed apprehensions of the ‘Congressisation’ of his party.

In the backdrop of these elections, like any other across the country, there are larger issues of probity and reforms that otherwise get lost in the din of the no hold barred poll campaign. This time around there are 5.26 crore voters in the state of which 2.51 crore are women.

According to an interesting analysis provided by Association for Democratic reforms, “Of the total 200 constituencies 45 or 23% constituencies are ‘red alert’ constituencies. Red alert constituencies are those where three or more contesting candidates have declared criminal cases against them. In the Assembly elections of 2018 48 or 24 % constituencies had three or more candidates with declared criminal cases.”

The organisation has underlined, “The directions of the Supreme Court have had no effect on the political parties in selection of candidates in the Rajasthan Assembly Elections 2023 as they have again followed their old practice of giving tickets to around 17% candidates with criminal cases.

All major parties contesting in Rajasthan elections have given tickets from 6 % to 72 % candidates who have declared criminal cases against themselves. The Supreme Court in its directions dated February 13, 2020 had specifically instructed political parties to give reasons for such selection and why other individuals without criminal antecedents could not be selected as candidates.

As per these mandatory guidelines, the reasons for such selection has to be with reference to qualifications, achievements and merit of the candidate concerned.

During the recent four state Assembly elections held in 2023, it was observed that political parties gave unfounded and baseless reasons like popularity of the person, does good social work, cases are politically motivated etc.

These are not sound and cogent reasons for fielding candidates with tainted backgrounds. This data clearly shows that political parties have no interest in reforming the electoral system and our democracy will continue to suffer at the hands of lawbreakers who become lawmakers.”

Talking about money power in the electoral exercise, it has analysed, “The role of money power in our elections is evident from the fact that all major political parties give tickets to wealthy candidates. Among the major parties 176 (88%) out of 200 candidates analysed from the BJP, 167 or 84% out of 199 candidates analysed from INC, 36(20%) out of 185 candidates analysed from BSP, 29(34%) out of 86 candidates analysed from AAP, 36(46%) out of 78 candidates analysed from Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, 5(28%) out of 18 candidates analysed from CPI(M) and 1(6%) out of 17 candidates analysed from Bhartiya Tribal Party have declared assets valued more than Rs 1 crore.”