A Small Step Or A Giant Leap For The Opposition?

At least 15 Opposition political parties from across India have come together for the 2024 general elections. Top leaders of all sat together in Patna, thrashed out their differences, resolved many, and emerged from the meeting to announce a new pact that will see them give an united fight to the BJP in the parliamentary elections. They have announced a second meeting for July in Shimla, where they will begin the tedious and tense process of seat sharing in the states so they do not impinge on each other's turf, and thereby divide the Opposition votes.

That is the simple plan so far. It took considerable effort, despite the BJP threat, to bring the top guns together with Janata Dal U) leader Nitish Kumar joining forces with the Congress top brass to ensure a large representation that covers major political parties currently in government in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu. And an effective opposition in states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Jammu, Kashmir. The point is that the meeting was not without relevance, and a powerful statement from experienced politicians.

The main issue will be the ability of all to stay together, to work together to ensure that petty ego’s and wilful antics do not break the seat sharing formula as and when it is reached. Some of the regional leaders made the point that the party that has the main presence in the state be allowed a lead position — such as Mamata Banerjee and the TMC in West Bengal, Akhilesh Yadav and the SP in Uttar Pradesh, Stalin and the DMK in Tamil Nadu and so on and so forth. This actually will be the only way forward, easing complications as the other contenders take a back seat and do not disrupt the unity by the so called ‘friendly contests’ that have been the bane of opposition alliances in the past.

It is strange really to hear sections of the media — and this is not new by the way — question the Opposition parties for not being together. Or castigate them for coming together after open differences. Or accuse them of opportunism. Or insist they will break before they unite. Skepticism which has become more lethal as the media can attack only the opposition, given its inability to question the ruling dispensation. All ‘investigation’ is reserved for opposition meetings, who has spoken what, the differences that emerged, the angry exchanges, all under the larger headline questioning the Opposition’s ability to unite.

It is true that the opposition has always found it difficult to settle differences, although it is also true that large coalitions have fought the general elections and come to power. Not just in the states but at the centre. But the media owned by the big bucks has always found it difficult to accept these, as big business finds federalism uncomfortable and has always preferred dealing with one party dispensations. Powerful guns have always been trained against coalitions, as in 1977 when the Janata experiment struggled to survive, and then in 1989 when VP Singh brought together motley groups to challenge the Congress party. Interestingly, coalitions cemented by the Congress (UPA) and the BJP (NDA) are acceptable as the national parties rule the roost as it were, and big business finds the space safe and secure.

But a lot has changed since. And national parties like the Left and the Congress have lost ground, one more than the other. The BJP has become the new love for big business, and television channels and anchors have shifted from journalism to propaganda. Some out of fear, but many out of conviction. The Left that had brought together coalitions in the past is out on the periphery, having been reduced from a three state to a one state party. The Congress was in a similar position until lately, and under Rahul Gandhi seems to have found a direction, and an agenda that has catapulted it onto the main state of national politics.

This was very visible at the Patna meet. Nitish Kumar was the face so that ‘sensitive’ politicians like Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal could attend the meeting, but Rahul Gandhi was the leader everyone was looking up to. Congress president Kharge actually played a major role in bringing everyone together, and it was pleasing to see the respect with which Rahul Gandhi spoke to him. The push to bring the opposition together has come from the Congress party, and hence this could be a game changer, and not a whimsical trivial meeting as some sections of the media are projecting.

If seen as a continuation of the determination of the Bharat Jodo Yatra it is clear that one, the Congress is fired by a mission to defeat the BJP in the 2024 parliamentary elections;

Two, there is a realisation that posturing means little and the entire opposition needs to channelise and direct the votes so that these are not divided;

Three, that the differences are not irreconcilable so long as the main political parties sink their ego’s and the Congress leaders made it clear at the meeting they are prepared to step back to accommodate the regional players;

Four, that the BJP is devouring the Opposition and this is a make or break opportunity that cannot be lost;

And five, while a common minimum program is not essential as the states differ in their targets, it is essential to reach a seat sharing formula that makes the opposition invincible.

It is significant that all major parties did come on board and that as the leaders said, several smaller parties can be expected to join at a later stage. Rahul Gandhi made it clear at the onset that despite being the largest party, the Congress was not going to push the others and ensure all got the respect due. For several weeks now the Congress leaders have been speaking well of the opposition parties, without the usual arrogance that had always been on display in the past. Differences between Kejriwal and the Congress over the ordinance remain, but even though the controlled media is harping on this, indications from the meeting suggest a possible resolution before it comes up in Parliament. Kharge reportedly said as much and was supported by most of the other political parties. Kejriwal, who has been a lone player, will now have to learn to reach out and trust the opposition if he wants to be part of the larger effort. As PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti reminded him, AAP had supported the BJP decision to abrogate Article 370.

The Patna meeting is important. The agenda remained unapologetically anti-BJP with the declared mission to defeat the party next year. The first meet has demonstrated the interest and the ability of the opposition to come together/. The second in Shimla is expected to cement the formula that will keep the opposition together.