Army Watched As Bangladesh Plunges Into Turmoil

The Interim Government of Bangladesh, led by Nobel laureate Dr. Mohammed Yunus, assumed office in August 2024 and has now completed seven months of governance. This period has been one of the most tumultuous in Bangladesh’s 54-year history as an independent nation.

Following the removal of a deeply entrenched government through a student-led agitation that turned violent, Bangladesh has experienced prolonged lawlessness. Despite the deployment of the Army, unrest continues unabated.

A particularly disturbing incident occurred on February 5, 2025, when violent mobs destroyed Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s historic residence-turned-museum, an act of vandalism that security forces failed to prevent.

The Bangladesh government blamed the destruction on former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s virtual address to the Chhatra League, claiming it incited the violence. Subsequently, Operation Devil Hunt was launched, ostensibly to restore law and order, but in reality, it targeted Awami League workers, who have been subjected to brutal crackdowns since their leader’s ouster.

The initial euphoria following Hasina’s removal has faded, giving way to a stark reality. Despite criticisms of her administration—including allegations of corruption and electoral malpractice—even her detractors acknowledge the socio-economic progress made during her tenure. Food scarcity, once a persistent issue, was largely addressed, but recent developments suggest a return to uncertainty, with Bangladesh seeking large rice imports from India.

Economic instability has become a major concern. Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves have depleted from over $40 billion in 2021 to $20 billion in March 2025. The government has imposed import restrictions and sought international financial assistance, but this has hampered import-dependent manufacturing, curtailed production, and increased unemployment. Inflation remains high at over 9%, and rising costs of essentials are severely affecting ordinary citizens, particularly during Ramzan.

On the political front, significant developments have unfolded. One of the first actions of the Interim Government was to lift the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) and its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, imposed by the previous government due to alleged terrorist links. This move allowed these groups to intensify their political activities, particularly targeting Awami League supporters. Although the JEI remains technically barred from contesting elections, it is only a matter of time before this restriction is lifted.

Following Hasina’s fall, the JEI rapidly expanded its influence, using Chhatra Shibir to dominate university and college campuses, sidelining the BNP’s student wing, Chhatra Dal. Despite these advances, the JEI remains uncertain about its ability to challenge the BNP in parliamentary elections.

The BNP, having severed ties with JEI, is eager for early elections to capitalize on its organizational strength. However, delays could erode its advantage. Historically, Bangladeshi politics has been dominated by an Awami League-BNP binary, which the JEI aims to disrupt. By embedding itself in the Interim Government, strengthening its foothold in key institutions, and advocating for local body elections before general elections, the JEI seeks to divide and weaken the BNP.

The BNP has grown wary of these manoeuvres and insists that constitutional changes must be made by an elected Parliament. It has urged the Interim Government to honour its promise of holding early elections. Meanwhile, a new political entity, the National Citizen Party (NCP), emerged on February 28, 2025, spearheaded by Nahid Islam, a former government coordinator. The NCP claims to champion an inclusive, discrimination-free Bangladesh, but its ideological leanings remain ambiguous. Critics suspect it aligns with JEI and is part of a broader strategy to undermine the BNP.

The NCP’s demand for constitutional reforms and an elected Gana Parishad to draft a new constitution has raised concerns. Its statements suggest an inclination towards an Islamic state rather than a secular democracy. The party's position on the Liberation War remains unclear, further fueling speculation about its right-wing affiliations.

Bangladesh now faces a deep ideological divide. With the Awami League sidelined, the BNP remains the primary advocate of centrist, pro-liberation ideals, while the JEI and other Islamist factions push for an Islamic state. The NCP, though officially non-aligned, is expected to side with right-wing forces.

Despite prevailing narratives, dismissing the Awami League’s potential resurgence would be premature. It remains a formidable political force and, so far, is neither banned nor barred from contesting elections.

A strategic alliance between the BNP and Awami League, given their shared ideological background, could disrupt existing political calculations. The leftist parties, traditionally opposed to the JEI, would likely align with the BNP rather than the NCP.

Beyond party politics, the role of the Army remains a crucial factor. Bangladesh has a history of military coups, and the current lawlessness raises concerns about another intervention.

On February 25, 2025, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, the Army Chief, warned politicians against infighting and urged national unity to safeguard sovereignty. He highlighted the deteriorating security situation and expressed concerns about the police's inability to function effectively. He also decried the tendency in certain quarters to undermine the Army and the security and intelligence apparatus. Although he denied political ambitions, observers think he gave enough hints of intervention should chaos persist.

Speculation is rife about internal power struggles within the Army, particularly with the promotion of General Muhammad Faizur Rahman, known for his JEI sympathies, to QuarterMaster General. Reports suggesting his secret meetings with Pakistani officials and suspicions of an impending coup have added to the unease.

Bangladesh stands at a crossroads, grappling with economic turmoil, political instability, widespread lawlessness and ideological divisions. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the nation can navigate these crises through democratic means or if another power shift, possibly through military intervention, looms on the horizon. Either way, the path ahead remains fraught with uncertainty.

Sandip Mitra retired from the Indian Foreign Service. Views expressed here are the writer’s own.