BRICS Expansion Places New Delhi On A Diplomatic Tightrope

The Americans have pulled out of the Middle East. After devastating the region and attacking independent countries like Iraq, Syria, Libya, Iran through hurtful sanctions and militarily the US has had to move out of not just the region but also Afghanistan where it lost a cruel war to the Afghans. And in the processbrought back the Taliban that they had sought to dislodge.

Under President Joe Biden the US administration turned its attention to Europe and Russia using Ukraine as the centre piece for the new strategy to strengthen NATO and weaken Moscow. Again a bloody war where the Ukrainian President presided over the loss of lives of his own citizens; and Russia that took largely military (and not civilian) hits stayed on top of a war that Vladimir Putin did not really want.

The planned isolation of Russia did not take place; and today Putin — despite the media campaign against him in the west; despite the trolling; despite the decisions that were questioned and shredded by the world media even as Biden received full support in the name of human rights —is back in business at the head of a new global effort that is bound to make waves.

BRICS has emerged as a world power, accommodating a huge chunk of the world's natural resources of oil, gas and peoples. This world body that had been chugging along - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa - conceding space to G-7’s and G-20’s has suddenly emerged as a power, a conglomerate to be watched closely. The unexpected expansion to include rivals Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina — now places BRICS in a position where it represents half the world’s population, and gets a virtual monopoly over gas and oil reserves.

The summit at Johannesburg has ensconced China in the driving seat, as this expansion is largely Beijing driven with of course Moscow alongside. It carries several signals:

• China is becoming increasingly powerful in the global South. And is acceptable to countries as varied as the list above demonstrates.
• Russia has not been isolated as Washington had hoped to achieve through the war in Ukraine. In fact it is a driving force along with China, and the bonhomie between the two was more than apparent during and even after this summit with a neat tango that was noticed by all.
• The US power is waning, the Ukraine war has not worked for the Americans but steadily eroded its standing in the world.
• China and Russia have thrown their hat into the ring with BRICS now being projected as a major world initiative with the two powers in the lead. This will in all probability reduce the multipolarity commentators are talking of to an illusion, with the new formation set to challenge the western world.
• India is walking a tightrope, perhaps even more so today than Saudi Arabia that has shown signs of breaking free from the American clutches. This is not a desirable position to be in with G-20 around the corner, and US President Joe Biden expected in New Delhi a day before the official summit for bilateral talks.

Given the power rivalries between America and China, it is not premature to presume that both will exert pressure on India to take sides in a world where both poles are strongly asserting themselves. It will be difficult for India to play both ends, given its foreign policy that has singularly favoured Washington over the long years and moved on a path that has made it adopt a hostile and adversarial position with China.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President XI Jinping spoke briefly on the sidelines of the BRICS summit. The Congress party has maintained that their respective statements about the outcome were as different as ‘chalk and cheese’ but while this is an exaggeration it is true that there was a difference in tone that often becomes important in diplomacy. The Indian briefing gave the impression that both sides had agreed to direct their officials to “intensify efforts at expeditious disengagement and de-escalation of troops along the Line of Actual Control.”

The Chinese briefing, however, offerned no such assurance and merely stated that both sides should bear in mind “the overall interests of their bilateral relations and handle the border issue so as to jointly safeguard peace and tranquility in the border region.” Also there was the usual semantics as to who asked whom for the meeting first with New Delhi making it clear that it had not requested for the meeting first.

Relations between New Delhi and Washington are close, and intricate. The shift started with late Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao, and was taken forward rapidly by former PM Manmohan Singh, and perfected under the present government.

Relations between New Delhi and Beijing are convoluted to put it mildly. The two countries have not come close to a war, but skirmishes at the borders have taken lives. Also diplomatically relations have often touched a low, with both clearly finding it difficult to establish a level of trust and confidence.

Late National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra under late Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee did achieve a milestone by starting talks between the two countries on border issues; and relations improved to a point where China stopped raising its claim to Indian territories including Arunachal Pradesh. It was done skilfuly, a containment policy that had got off the ground well and almost institutionalised NSA level talks on the most vexed problem between India and China - the border. Needless to say it did not last.

There seems to have been no mention at the Johannesburg interaction about the Chinese intrusions and occupation of Indian territory at the borders, but it remains the large elephant in the room that will not go away. Beijing is looking upon it as a closed chapter, or at least has developed such an attitude, and even though PM Modi has not publicly raised it in his various conversations with President Xi, he is under considerable pressure from the Opposition and others in India to do so.

It is fast developing into the government's Achilles heel with talks possible only if China is willing to flag these intrusions, and convey the possibility of an agreement that will make it withdraw its troops from the occupied areas. The Chinese willingness to talk is linked to New Delhi’s willingness to open windows without the Americans peeping in.

A tightrope from where a fall could prove costly.