Prudence Lies In Being Prepared For War

Pick up any newspaper and you will find a politician grinning at you in fancy attire. If half that money could be saved, perhaps we can better our global rating in the Hunger Index (105), HDI (134) and feed some who don’t get two square meals daily. But it seems our development has so impressed Donad Trump, he is offering his ‘best’ fighter jets (F-35s) - matching India’s strides?

The joke in circulation is that Indians have been accustomed to Artifical Intelligence (AI) since centuries - calling their mothers ayee. But AI (not EC) also predicts election results. And hence there was little reason to repair and build broken roads, with no street lighting even though news reports insisted that Rs 390 crores were spent in seven years for streetlights in Gurgaon. Not to mention the cows freely roaming the streets despite cow tax and the promised cow sheds.

Former Delhi University Students Union President, now the Delhi Chief Minister has announced the promised freebee/revadi of Rs 2,500 per woman every month starting March 2025. (Await advertisements of the numbers of women benefited). Audit of course will not be possible as the scheme is close to the CM’s heart and stents are expensive!

And while on the subject of schemes, doesn't the public deserve to know how many crores of rupees have been spent on cleaning the Yamuna since Independence? The real test will be the state of pollution in the next winters – Beijing-like cleaning is possible provided the will is there to spend money, which is aplenty.

The USD 21 million USAID is in the news, which Trump earlier said was for “voter turnout”, but now says was “kickbacks”. No defence deal in India anyway is without kickbacks.

With respect to Aero India 2025 analysts are pointing to the depleted combat power of the IAF and the inadequacies of self-sufficiency in defence. The defence minister, in his Newton avatar, expects POK to automatically fall in his lap, but is impervious to these two defaults.

Many complained of a stomach-ache when Chief of the Air Staff (CAS) Air Chief Marshal AP Singh publicly said that the term self-reliance is actually a little abused, because everybody in the world is looking for self-reliance, not only India, and the only way forward is to establish global partnerships.

He also stressed the need for timely Resesrch&Development, embracing failures, increasing R&D funding from 5% to 15% of the budget, while voicing frustration over the delay in delivery of the first 40 Tejas aircraft, despite the order placed by the IAF more than a decade ago.

A former Vice Chief of Army Staff says, “I tend to resonate with the CAS. No country in the world produces from the pin to the aircraft. Europe had gone into a Farnborough Agreement to develop & produce weapon systems jointly in 1999. Despite their level of expertise, they willy-nilly had to accept the US and Brazil's participation/contribution for that venture. We are a far cry!!”

In our case, “global partnerships” are stuck in bureaucratic red tape, politics, indecision and the stranglehold of the governmental defence-industrial unable to acknowledge their inadequacies.

The much-publicised reorganization is also stalled, with the political hierarchy and defence minister mum on the issue, because it is the goose that lays golden eggs.

We are content with the Rafale jet fighters and will probably buy the F-35s to avoid Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, although expecting transfer of technology (ToT) from the US will remain utopian. Now, we are going to import more Rafael fighters for the Indian Navy.

But are we aware that a recent study by the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) has concluded that the French Air Force “could” survive just three days against Russia (frances-air-power-crisis-rafale-fighters-could-survive-just-three-days-against-russia); 4th generation French Rafael pitted against 5th generation Russian fighter aircraft, in addition to other factors mentioned in the study report. Notably, the study team also included former French Air Force officers.

The above needs to be viewed not only in the backdrop of China showcasing two new stealth fighters (believed to be 6th generation) in December 2024, but also the fact that China has “already” fielded not one but two 5th generation jets, the medium J-35 and the heavy J-20 in the PLA Air Force (PLAAF). According to one assessment, China could deploy 1,000 J-20 'Mighty Dragon' 5th generation jets by the time India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) starts flying.

India’s hierarchy must also understand who exactly is ready to give us transfer of technology (ToT) to what extent. Ironically, the 100% ToT rhetoric is spread through the media (due to the kickbacks), whereas, the critical technology transfer was never intended.

Are we aware that the French ‘Naval Group’ has publicly criticized Germany’s ThyssenKrupp (TKMS) transferring advanced technology to foreign countries (to Turkey and South Korea); inadvertently or otherwise, reducing chances of other submarine builders to win future bids.

Finally, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is in the process of acquiring the Chinese J-35A and Turkey's TAI TF Kaan – both 5th generation fighters. So, where are we in terms of air warfare vis-à-vis China and Pakistan? Spreading the word that this is not the era of war is no remedy. Prudence lies in being prepared for war. Taking the cue from BrahMos, our best bet would be co-production of Su-57, for which Russia is ready.

Lt General Prakash Katoch is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are the writer’s own.

Cover Photograph: China’s stealth fighter redefines air power.