Russia - The Revolt and Beyond

We have received much information and as much disinformation about the short-lived revolt by the leader of the private military company, Wagner Group, in Russia. So here goes some straight analysis based on Russian Telegram Channels and other fairly reliable sources.

I would classify this episode as a revolt against the Russian defence ministry by a very dissatisfied operator of a private military group (some mainstream Western channels quickly announced a ‘coup against Putin’).

The reason for this revolt led by Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, who managed the private military company (PMC) Wagner, was that he has for a long time had a personal feud with the top Russian defence ministry command, that is Russian defence minister Sergei Shoighu and the commander in charge of Ukraine operations, General Gerasimov.

Prighozin was allowed to take the lead in the long fight for Bakhmut in the Donbas, where he was successful in ousting Ukraine defences. As victory in the Bakhmut battle neared, Prighozin released dramatic, and crude, videos openly critiquing the Russian Defence Ministry about a shortage of ammunition and weapons supplied to him and the death in this battle of many of his men.

It was clear then that there was a turf war between the Russian Defence Ministry and the Wagner Group. Prighozhin had bigger ambitions, especially because the Wagner mercenaries had also worked at conflict sites in Africa earlier. Moreover, Prighozin had access to the top Russian leadership including President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

But it is also a fact that Prighozin is a civilian not a trained commander, and the Russian command had also worked quietly in the Bakhmut and other battle fronts. Prighozin’s strength is that he stays on the battlefield with his men and is wildly courageous.

As he repeats continuously, he is loyal to Mother Russia and to Putin, but feels the Russian Defence ministry needs a change of leadership. Prighozin is an unabashed Russian oligarch and amongst other things owns a TV channel that airs videos about Prighozin and his exploits on the battlefield.

Once the battle of Bakhmut (Artemovsk for the Russians) was done, Prighozin and Wagner were asked to take leave of the frontlines, and go for rest and recuperation. Meanwhile, the Russian military strategy shifted its focus on the much advertised counter offensive by Ukraine, where the collective West has poured in billions worth of weapons, provided real time intelligence support and led from the back.

Last week the Russian Defence Ministry ordered that all private militia in Russia disband to the Russian military command by June 31. This would have meant an end to the Wagner group mercenaries.

It was obviously a decision taken by the top most leadership. Prighozin felt betrayed. His Wagner mercenaries, that he hoped would be at the centre of the counter offensive, had to be either merged under Russian command or disbanded. He had announced that it would be done on the frontline on August 6.

Maddened with rage, Prighozin used his channels to first start a verbal offensive, stating the opposite of what he had been endorsing over the last one year. For example he said there was no need for Russia to have attacked Ukraine, the Russian defence ministry was corrupt, their strategy led to unnecessary deaths etc.

Prighozin then ordered his men (some 25,000 according to Russian sources) all heavily armed to march into the town of Rostov in Southern Russia and ‘take it over’. Another brigade was ordered to march to Moscow. All the time Prighozhin professed loyalty to Putin also.

Since Prighozin was publicising all his moves in real time, the Western media declared a coup in the making, a regime change they have been advocating for months. Putin and the Russian regime swung into action.

They declared Prighozin’s act as treason, mobilised Russian internal security, were ready with emergency services, and kept the public informed. Putin also dialled in his international allies.

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko spoke to Prighozin and reached a compromise with him. What we know so far is that Prighozin will be exiled to Belarus, the Wagner group will be forgiven and disbanded, and its men will have the opportunity to join the regular armed forces. There are likely to be some changes in the top ranks of the Russian defence ministry.

This episode has caused damage to the image of the strength that Russia has been projecting. However, it is clear that the Ukraine counter offensive has in the past 18 days, since it was launched, gone badly. Russia has had far too many losses of men killed and wounded. Russia has destroyed much of the imported weaponry.

According to Russian reports this one day revolt by Prighozhin has not impacted the frontline and the Russian business of grinding down Ukraine continues.

There is no threat to Putin. The Russian nation, even the earlier dissenters, are behind Putin. This is because they understand that the force of the entire collective West is behind Ukraine in this lethal hybrid proxy war against Russia.

The reason the West hates Putin is because they hate Russia. The reason for such Russophobia is clear. The Pentagon strategy of isolating, containing Russia by harming it in every possible way is written into every American national security document. The Putin regime has stood in the way of the West and halted Russian decline and fragmentation.

When Putin became President in 2000, he inherited a Russia weakened, on the verge of de-industrialisation; massive capital flight; autarchy in the regions; small and big civil wars. Putin controlled this trend with his autocratic ways.

He gave some freedoms, like those of social media, religions, secular statehood etc, while taking away others. Unlike Joe Biden, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and others, he is no war loving liberal. The Russian people understand this. Liberalism is not part of Russian political culture as yet.

Moreover, Russia had dissolved its Cold War structures like the Warsaw pact but the West only strengthened and expanded NATO to Russian borders. Russian leaders could not reason with the Western leaders to include Russia into a common security structure.

Ukraine is key in the United States’ strategy for decades of intervention. It is open source information that the US spent billions developing a right wing opposition in Ukraine. This divided the Russian speaking regions and Crimea versus the Ukrainian nationalists in Western Ukraine.

The 2014 coup removing an elected president and civil war in Ukraine followed. Those who support the right to national determinism can see the logic of the secession of Crimea and the Donbass republics.

This was followed by the declaration of independence in the Donbass and then Russian support to them over the next seven years.

This then became the point of Russian intervention. This may have been a strategic mistake, but from the Russian point of view, this containment strategy by the neo-conservatives (Neocons) in the US administration can no longer be tolerated. The Putin regime sees this as an existential threat, which they had to counter with the use of force.

This Prigozhin revolt is a temporary setback for Russia. But by all appearances there will be a shakeup and getting back on course. Of course Russia’s well-wishers, that includes most of the Global South, are concerned while the West continues to wait for Russian disintegration and regime change. History will tell what will follow.

Anuradha Chenoy is Adjunct Professor Jindal Global University and former Dean, School JNU. Views expressed are the writer’s own.

Cover Photograph: Russian President Vladimir Putin and the man currently in the news Yevgeny Prigozhin (File).