The Big Defeat - 5 Reasons

This time no one got it wrong – the media, the exit polls, the internal surveys, the politicians. Haryana was a sure win for the Congress party, all were agreed. The people of Haryana, unlike the voters in Uttar Pradesh for instance, were speaking out their anger against the Bharatiya Janata Party, stopping BJP candidates from entering villages, and the farmers took the lead in making it clear that in the BJP vs Congress electoral fight, they would vote for the latter.

And then the counting began. The Congress party started celebrating within half an hour, bursting crackers and distributing sweets, when then dramatically everything changed. From victory the Congress party slipped to defeat, as even the jaws dropped of the multitude of BJP reporters and anchors on television. The Congress spokespersons went indoors, and after the shock subsided the party leaders sought refuge in the Election Commission, submitting a representation of foul play.

One can only hope that this is not what the Congress leadership actually believes, that the EVMs detected with 99 percent battery in a few constituencies were not the reason for the final results. As now no one, not even their party members, believe this. EVMs are really today the substitute for booth capturing and can impact on a few constituencies but certainly not the entire results. After all, every counting station has representatives of all the candidates in the fray, who are expected to keep a hawk's eye on the process and report all suspected and real malpractices.

The real reasons are not far to seek, if Rahul Gandhi and the people around him decide to admit what went wrong, and take remedial measures. No such process followed the debacles in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, so it remains to be seen whether Haryana too will go the same way. This was an election for the Congress party to pick up, and that it has lost miserably should ensure a complete re-jig. This will not happen as the power brokers and the managers who have taken over the party will not allow it, but even so it is important to record the calamity for posterity!

The reasons thus, are broadly five:

1. Powerbrokers and party managers. Rahul Gandhi has been surrounded by drops of old wine in a new bottle, each one carrying his own interests, and insisting on a certain management of elections that ensures defeat. The Nehru-Gandhi family now, unlike Indira Gandhi, has little to no idea of the ground dynamics and the Congress organisation in the states, down to the booth level. These powerbrokers set the rules, dictate the process, and manage to create chaos that Rahul Gandhi and his family are unable to detect until it hits the ceiling. The names of these persons are well known - all without sufficient knowledge of the grassroots and/or the capability to build an organisation free from fissures and differences.
2. Internal wars. This cannot even be referred to as differences as the warring factions within the Congress belch out their issues during the elections. Unlike in the BJP where even arch rivals sink their differences for the elections, the Congress factions use the elections to try and get their way. And the party leadership is unable to contain them, while the power brokers actually help fan the flames. The Hooda versus Sailja war in Haryana proved to be extremely costly, with both spending more time and energy in belittling the other than in fighting and winning the Assembly polls. The one was seen happy by observant reporters, about the discomfiture of the other. And for all practical purposes there was little done by the top leaders to bring the two together , except of course for the usual photo-op handshake. The factionalism in all states has badly impacted the Congress during, before and after polls with the only exception being Karnataka where the two state leaders - Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar–came together for the sake of the party and the state during the Assembly and Parliamentary elections.
3. From election to election and nothing in between. This is a major reason as the Congress party has been moving from state to state only just before the elections are due. There is little before and after. Factionalism, organisation are all looked at briefly as part of the election process with the party organisation in the states remaining completely dormant otherwise. The interest shown by Rahul Gandhi is momentary, and this could have worked, had the Congress boasted tall state leaders. This is far from the reality unfortunately, and the minute the electoral spotlights shift the local state leaders go in doors. The party remains totally dependent on the campaign run by the Family with all the managers visible during those short periods. No one remains to pick up the pieces, and work to build a grassroots organisation that can withstand the onslaught of the BJP-RSS combination that remains formidable.
4. The BJP has the RSS that works for it in the field, spreading its tentacles into the villages and even the homes. As was evident in the campaign carried out within the Dalits and the OBC’s in Haryana with the Congress paying the price for a Jat focus through its chief ministerial candidate Bhupinder Singh Hooda. The RSS knows the nuances on the ground and ruthlessly exploits these while the Congress party has no such asset. It has failed to revive its front organisations, particularly the Sewa Dal, the Mahila Congress and the Youth Congress, that were never the best but had the potential to become the arms and hands of the parent organisation. Nothing has been done on this front. And the election is thus fought by the candidate, some leaders, an ineffective organisation without cadres. The sense of ownership and belonging essential for a sharp party has thus, been completely eroded over the years.
5. Overconfidence. This has always been a major flaw in Congress organisation and it becomes worse when it is matched by a complete absence of knowledge, information and connection with the ground. This is becoming more and more obvious in the state elections where the party has swung from an assured victory into the jaws of defeat as from the top to the chosen party managers in the state the Congress leadership has little idea of the ground. One has seen this over and over again with the strongest indication of this being the party’s inability to judge the ground even after the votes are cast. Usually candidates in touch with the voters know the results before these are announced, but the Congress is always caught by surprise. This disconnect between the leaders and the people is extremely costly and comes in this case because of a fractured and hence ineffective organisaiton. Everywhere, with Karnataka being the sole exception at this point in time.

Rahul Gandhi will have to clean up the act. Hindi YouTubers have been talking of the interference of persons around him in distributing tickets, despite opposition from within Haryana. If true, this can further debilitate the Congress party, leading to large scale resentment and alienation.

Even in Jammu and Kashmir the Congress party was unable to replace the BJP in Jammu – again an election left to a campaign and not hard and detailed work on the ground. Two important elections - Maharashtra and Jharkhand – are around the corner. Both carry positivity for the Congress alliance but after Haryana all bets are off.