The Terrorism Narrative In Kashmir Has Fallen Apart

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing a serious challenge to its narrative in Jammu and Kashmir that it had so carefully woven at the time of abrogation of Articles 35A and 370 of the Constitution on August 5, 2019.

Politically, BJP’s narrative is falling apart due to alternative views now being voiced with sufficient strength in Parliament and outside. Similarly, its narrative on terrorism is fizzling out due to violence unleashed by terrorists infiltrated from across, particularly in Jammu region.

At the time of reading down Constitutional provisions, the BJP had alleged that separatism and terrorism affecting the erstwhile state was because of insertion of the above two articles in the constitution and “dynastic” and “corrupt” rule by successive governments. The BJP’s narrative about the mainstream political parties would now be on test in the elections.

In this regard, the challenge for the BJP is formidable, as both National Conference (NC) and peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), in their respective manifestoes, have assured the people of J&K that they would work for restoration of Articles 35A and 370 and statehood, both popular demands in the Valley.

Besides, the NC has also promised to protect land laws and employment rights exclusively for the residents of the union territory. A demand that would find resonance in Jammu region also.

It was understandable that the people of the Valley would be resentful, angry and feel humiliated after the constitutional changes. But what took BJP by surprise was the building up of anger in the Jammu region and open expression of the same in Ladakh.

Ladakh is now a Union Territory without a legislature, so no elections are being held there. In the Jammu region, the new changes have resulted in loss of jobs and business opportunities for the locals.

Hence, it would not be easy for BJP to retain even those Assembly segments that it won in Lok Sabha elections a few months back, as local issues would dominate now. At that time, BJP had managed to take the lead in 29 out of 43 Assembly segments in Jammu region.

Sadly, its proxies also didn’t do well in the Valley and hence may not be able to add numbers to its kitty in the forthcoming elections.

On the other hand, NC and Congress, who have formed an alliance to contest the forthcoming elections, had taken lead on 37 and 7 assembly segments respectively. That is why, the alliance stands a good chance at forming the government after elections. Another regional party, PDP, had taken lead on 5 segments and may not be averse to supporting the alliance.

At stake are also 14 Assembly segments in the Valley on which Engineer Rashid had taken lead. The voting in his favour was an expression of resentment against what was done in August 2019 and his “unjust” detention. But the same sympathy vote may not be available to other members of his party.

Nevertheless, Rashid’s resounding victory over Omar Abdullah, and equally convincing defeat of all those perceived to be the proxies of BJP in Kashmir Valley, has restored the faith of the people in the Valley in the fairness of the electoral process.

The people are encouraged by the fact that Delhi didn’t interfere till the declaration of the results despite realising that the outcome was at variance with what the BJP had expected and perhaps desired.

Therefore, the participation of the people in the Valley this time may surprise many Kashmir watchers, who had seen how the terror threats and boycott calls by separatists impacted the polling in many areas, particularly Srinagar city, since 1989.

It is interesting that even the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami J&K has also announced that it would field a few candidates as independents. The party continues to be banned under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act.

Nothing wrong in its participation in elections. But it appears to be a tactical move to please Delhi so that the ban is removed, and it could resume its religious activities propagating establishment of “Nizam-e-Mustafa”. As such, Jamaat is not popular with the people and has a weak electoral base.

What baffled security experts was that the BJP didn’t appreciate that in the process of pinning blame on mainstream politicians and the then prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru, it virtually gave a clean chit to Pakistan on the issue of terrorism.

A poor understanding and interpretation of the developments leading to signing of instrument of accession by Maharaja Hari Singh and history of the erstwhile state since 1947.

Even before the Lok Sabha elections, Pakistan was back to its past mischief and had gradually opened the sluice valve of flow of infiltrators into J&K. Now it has become a steady flow.

Despite repeated assertions by those in power in J&K and Delhi that the situation has improved post abrogation of Articles 35A and 370, the violence by terrorists picked up. It is now being noted by everyone in the rest of India.

The BJP’s response to the developing political and security situation in J&K has been to concentrate more power in Delhi and its representative there.

That is why, rather than restoring the statehood and empowering new political set up to deal with the issue of Kashmiri sentiments reflected during Lok Sabha elections and ensure smooth flow of information on movement of terrorists, Delhi has further strangulated the already weakened legislative assembly.

On July 12, the Ministry of Home Affairs, through an order, concentrated more powers in the hands of Lieutenant Governor (LG). Hence, there is now an inbuilt conflict between LG and the Chief Minister in the new political scheme.

The BJP perhaps doesn’t realise that J&K can’t be treated like Delhi. It has an international dimension. Chinese aggression in Ladakh only confirms the same.

At the same time, no matter what India does in Kashmir on the Constitutional front, without dealing with Pakistan, bilaterally or through international pressure, it wouldn’t be possible to control cross-border terrorism. Therefore, there is a need for a policy based on realism rather than for electoral gains in the rest of India.

Avinash Mohananey is former Director-General of Police of Sikkim. Views expressed here are the writer’s own.

Cover Photograph- Seerat Barkati daughter of Sarjan Barkati who is currently in jail, filed nomination papers on his behalf from the Shopian constituency in South Kashmir.She is campaigning for him across the constituency.