UK Polls -No Change, The Centre Still Holds

Hyperbole surrounding the British election is hugely misleading. Record-breaking statistics are not what they seem. Granted that the Labour party has dramatically improved its seat share to 63% (from 202 to 412).

And the Tories have slumped to 19%, their lowest ever level (from 365 to 121). Losing in the process, a dozen sitting ministers (another record), even the seat of former Prime Minister, Liz Truss.

But, there is no radical shift from right to left. British politics has just lurched from one centrist party to another. Despite the euphoria of Labour supporters, the "landslide" in favour of a political party or an ideology is illusory. Change may be in the offing, but it is not yet here. There are, however, interesting possibilities.

Politicians will not say this, but poll observers are beginning to. Keir Starmer on the way in as Prime Minister, claimed to have won a vote for change, (a Tony Blair like “new dawn”).

Rishi Sunak, on the way out, had campaigned with the warning that a Labour “supermajority” would result in unpleasant seismic changes. Both were, however, only indulging in the political art of exaggeration and oversimplification.

We get a different narrative when we shift the gaze from seats to votes. The significant jump in the number of Labour seats has been achieved with a lower number of polled votes! Even its worst electoral performance in 2019 under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn got it more votes than Starmer has garnered now.

The drop in voter support for Labour between 2019 and 2024 is greater than one percent, despite the phenomenal increase in seats. And its percentage share of votes is the lowest obtained by any democratically elected British Prime Minister.

This questionable outcome is a consequence of the first-past-the-post electoral system. (Similar anomalies happen in India too). Starmer has gamed the system with spectacular success by concentrating the campaign in scores of marginal seats.

We are now seeing calls for a public debate in Britain about switching to proportional representation, which is the norm in most European countries. If it takes place, every political party will adopt the stance that can give it the greatest electoral advantage.

The Liberal Democrats, who have traditionally favoured proportional representation, might be lukewarm now, since their leader, Ed Davey, playing the Starmer game, has increased his footfall in Parliament (from 11 to a record 72 seats, making it the third Parliamentary party), despite getting fewer votes than the new Reform party.

Nigel Farage, the far-Right Reform leader, who threw his cap in the ring very close to the election, has entered Parliament, but he has only 5 seats, after getting more votes than the Liberal Democrats (Reform coming in a close second in several constituencies). He has begun to demand an equal share of influence on government policies.

But, Starmer, who has achieved runaway success within the existing system, has no incentive to propose a change. The Tories, who have always opposed proportional representation, will not want it either.

The switch from Tory to Labour today can hardly be described as ideological, since neither party has been faithful to its roots for some time. The Conservatives came to power under David Cameron in 2010 only by crafting a coalition with the left-leaning Liberal Democrats.

The Brexit referendum was not fought on party lines, nor was it ideological in any traditional left-versus-right sense. But, Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to a sweeping victory in 2019 by promising to implement what the majority had already decided-to leave the European Union.

After 2020, Covid policies forced the party leftward into enacting stringent lockdown rules and bringing in Sunak’s furlough scheme and other generous handouts. The UK is still struggling with the consequent slowdown in growth and the impact on inflation and debt.

Labour had its own share of troubles when Gordon Brown and Ed Milliband lost elections to the Tories. Starmer worked his way to the top of the party after bitter in-fighting with radical “Corbynistas”, eventually expelling Jeremy Corbyn on charges of anti-Semitism.

Since Corbyn has now returned to Parliament as an Independent, he will be unable to exert a leftward pull on Labour. Starmer’s declared policies on major matters are much the same as Tory policies.

He will reform the NHS, he will promote growth for all groups and regions. But, he will not go back on Brexit or do anything new on Gaza (his refusal to condemn Israel has cost Labour some seats, when supporters in some constituencies defected to fight the election as Independents).

The party will now govern with two-thirds of the seats but only one-third of the votes. Starmer’s best bet is to impress voters with better management of the same ticklish problems, without offending them with Tory-like scandals.

Britain has not recovered from the after-effects of Covid strategies with the same alacrity as the United States, which can always raise debt against the all-powerful dollar and is not tied to a public health mammoth. The UK has not succeeded in training people or raising funds to keep the NHS going.

The difficulty is that in an open economy, high taxes on corporate income, capital gains, wealth, inheritance or financial transactions can drive away the investors who are needed to open businesses and create jobs. Social security payments are spiralling upwards with more people staying away from the job market with post-Covid maladies.

Voters expect manpower gaps to be filled without letting in many migrants (legal or illegal), who will put pressure on wages and public facilities. They want more houses, but no building on green spaces (the NIMBY, not-in-my-backyard approach). These are almost impossible tasks for any government.

In some ways, Britain seems to have moved a lifetime away from what voters demanded at the last election. Five years ago, when Boris Johnson took over as Prime Minister, the two major political challenges were to get Brexit done and to keep Scotland from seceding. Both issues have now vanished.

Johnson completed the legal formality of Brexit as quickly as promised, but could not follow it through with deals on immigration, trade and human rights legislation. Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party which had captured 48 of the 59 seats in Scotland (more than 80%) in 2019 has imploded and seat numbers have plummeted to 9.

Since the SNP had framed the election as a referendum on secession, that is no longer a pressing matter. Yet, Johnson was undone in some part by Covid, which was hardly a cloud on the horizon in 2019.

Even while policies of the two major parties are clustered at the centre, there has been a discernible but gradual shift in people’s preferences. This became clear in 2019, when working class areas, the “red wall” bastion of the Labour party, turned Conservative.

Disappointed with the failure of Brexit, these voters seem to have now moved further right to Nigel Farage’s Reform party, making it the third party in terms of polled votes. Voting data is still being crunched region wise, but the message cannot be ignored.

For the present, at least, Starmer is not inclined to tilt further to the left. He has repeatedly stated that he will fulfil the mandate of the New Labour party (refusing to return to the left-leaning Jeremy Corbyn model). To withstand pressure from his own MPs and draw back traditional Labour voters he must quickly succeed in repairing a damaged government beset with intractable problems.

The Conservatives seem to be at a political crossroads. The MPs, and party members, are preparing for a showdown between those who are calling for a merger with Nigel Farage and the moderate liberal wing that is regrouping to win back votes lost in erstwhile safe seats mainly to the Liberal Democrats. How blood-curdling will the fight for the heart of the Tory party be?

Renuka Viswanathan retired from the Indian Administrative Service. Views expressed here are the writer’s own.