Another burst of military aggression by China on December 9 at the Tawang frontier under cover of darkness, which the Indian Army squarely repulsed, coupled with the unmistakable thaw in Washington-Beijing relations, poses new challenges for the Narendra Modi government which however appears to be totally preoccupied with the G-20 presidency.

Three harsh realities confront India today. Firstly, India-China relations are not normal and cannot be normal because of what the PLA has already done and is still doing at the LAC. This extremely troubling fact is underscored by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar whenever he gets an opportunity to think aloud these days.

Secondly, there is a downswing in India's relations with the United States as we have deliberately parked ourselves in the Russian camp defying the US-led Western block of countries in our national interest.

Thirdly and most importantly, China and the US are engaged in diplomatic foreplay and heavy petting which might lead to a full-bodied rapprochement. At present, senior US officials like Daniel Kritenbrink in charge of East Asia in the State Department and Laura Rosenberger, National Security Council Senior Director for China and Taiwan, are holding "in-depth" discussions with Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng in Hebei province, ahead of a visit by US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, in early 2023 in what would be the first visit to China by the top US diplomat in four long years.

The consequences for India of the Joe Biden-Xi Jinping meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 Bali Summit were crystal clear even a month ago. New Delhi has a big stake in any Washington-Beijing engagement but the implications of the Xi-Biden handshake on 14 November were huge.

The men who shook hands are a study in contrast from the Modi regime's lens. While the BJP government loves to project Biden as its most powerful friend and ally in the world, Xi is undoubtedly India's Enemy No 1.

The conciliatory and cordial Biden-Xi dialogue which suddenly calmed tensions between the two superpowers has direct ramifications for India for two reasons. Firstly because of the standoff at the India-China border since mid-2020, and secondly because India is a key constituent of the Quad, the US-led four-nation bloc to counterbalance China in the Indo-Pacific which Beijing has dubbed as an Asian NATO.

I think that after the marathon Xi-Biden heart-to-heart talks - and Blinken's upcoming visit to China – the US will be naturally less prone to exert pressure on China to make concessions to India and instead focus on areas of direct American interest. Conversely, the easing of American pressure is likely to embolden China to scale up its aggression to dominate India. The pressure US applied on China to rein in its belligerence against India was evident from frequent statements by top American officials criticising Chinese military and other actions against India.

But with the US and China warming up to each other, the Biden Administration will stop pushing Beijing to make compromises and co-exist peacefully with New Delhi. India is a large, politically stable and powerful country with tried and tested capabilities to protect its territories and interests. India is not a push-over today nor was it ever in the past.

Its victories in several wars bear testimony to its military might. But there is no denying that American support matters, and that India will now have to cope with reduced or zero US backing against China.

Because of American centrality in geo-politics, any improvement in US-China relations will have far-reaching repercussions for India. For example, India's key adversary, Pakistan, will benefit directly from any reduction in US-China tensions. Islamabad's comfort level is bound to increase because it is desperate to be on equally good terms with both China and the US.

Pakistan wants to benefit from both and nothing suits Islamabad more than a US-China thaw so that it doesn't have to look over its shoulder while courting either. And luckily for Pakistan, the US-China thaw has come close on the heels of a drastic improvement in Washington- Islamabad relations.

The China-Pakistan alliance was always strong but the new US tilt towards Pakistan can change the balance of power in South Asia. Any improvement in China-US relations will reinforce and fortify the Washington-Islamabad equation to Pakistan's advantage and India's disadvantage.

If the US and China reach an understanding, which seems highly probable after the Xi-Biden engagement and preparations for Blinken's visit to China, India-US collaboration in Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives to counter Chinese influence might run out of steam.

I think that any reduction in China-US tensions will lessen America's appetite and dampen its keenness to proactively partner India against China in South Asia. Two-three years ago, unable to contain skyrocketing Chinese clout in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, India had deliberately roped in US intelligence, defence and security agencies to loosen Beijing's tightening grip on its backyard. Now India will have to recalibrate its strategies in its zone of influence, while China will try to make the most of reduced US interest in the region.

All things considered, the reduction in tensions between China and the US will benefit Pakistan the most in South Asia. This is against our interests as we have to cope not only with Islamabad exporting terror to India but the threat from the Pakistan-China military axis.

As Beijing and Washington cosy up, even as Indian and Chinese troops clash in Tawang, I am reminded of what former Foreign Secretary, Shyam Saran, recently described as a "nightmare scenario" for us. Saran, the doyen of diplomacy, remarked in February this year: "The nightmare scenario for India would be if the US comes to the conclusion that it confronts a greater threat from Russia and that this justifies a strategic accommodation with China. In blunt terms, concede Chinese dominance in Asia while safeguarding its European flank."

S.N.M. Abdi is a former Deputy Editor of Outlook magazine. Views expressed are the writer's own.

Cover Photograph - File

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