What Lies Ahead for Sri Lanka

Sri Vikrama Rajasinha of the Kingdom of Kandy was deposed by the British under the Kandyan Convention in 1815, ending the Sinhalese crown that had reigned for over 2300 years. Sri Lanka's national flag depicting a yellow lion passant holding a sword in its right paw, on a red background, has been adopted from Vikrama Rajasinha's Royal Standard.

However, the popular legacy of the last royal family is not exactly flattering. Historian Louis Edmund Blaze notes that Vikrama Rajasinha did not "show those mental and moral qualities which enabled former Kings to hold their own against rebellion and invasion. To say he was cruel does not mean much, for cruel Kings and Nobles were not rare in those days…"

Over 200 years later, yet another ruling dynasty i.e. Rajapaksa's, is attributed to a similar autocratic 'reign' like the monarchical times. The Rajapaksas had successfully ward off challenges from rival political clans like the Senanayakes and Bandaranaikes. Like all ruling families of their time, Rajapaksas relied on a close-knit cabal of family members. They usurped prominent positions of power to perpetuate their familial fiefdom. Nine members of the Rajapaksa family have been Members of Parliament.

The recently deposed 'reign' of President (Gotabaya Rajyapaksa), Prime Minister (Mahinda Rajyapaksa) etc., is reflective of the nepotistic stranglehold over the Island nation. Like royalists earlier, Rajyapaksa family members like Gotabaya, Mahinda, Chamal, Basil, Namal, Nirupama, Nipuna, George, Preethi, Lakshman, Shasheendra, are all part of popular-political folklore, and now, infamy.

Much like the French Revolution, the dramatic Rajapaksa collapse has been in the making for some time. There has been socio-economic disaffection brewing amongst the masses. The scenes of the disgruntled masses storming the Presidential and Prime Ministerial abodes, are reminiscent of the storming of the Bastille. Much like the fate of King Louis XVI and his family (in this case, the larger Rajyapaksa clan), the modern-day Sri Lankan saga also entailed portents like the 'flight to Varennes'.

The prominent Rajyapaksa members made a desperate attempt to dash out of the country. Clearly, like the Ancien Regime of France, the Rajyapaksas had misunderstood the extent of pain, ire and angst. And like in the French Revolution, the non-arrival of the much-awaited foreign intervention (read, financial bailout from the International Monetary Fund), had undermined the Rajyapaksas beyond salvage.

While the Rajyapaksa members may not exactly face the French Revolution's guillotine of the reactive 'Reign of Terror', perceptions of high treason, corruption and mismanagement have led them to the political guillotine, for sure.

Scenes of unrestrained masses storming the palaces, revelling in their splendour of opulent rooms, sofas, swimming pools, gyms and picnic spots, have been seen in history, and Sri Lanka was no different. Last year, a similar spectre of garrulous Taliban militias sprawling over the seized palaces and palatial homes of the erstwhile government officials and friendly warlords in Afghanistan, bemused onlookers.

Much earlier, when Saddam's Iraq or Muamar Ghaddafi's Libya had fallen, locals had vented their pent-up frustrations with ransacking and plunder. Temporary societal catharsis notwithstanding, years down the line, both Iraq and Libya (as indeed, Afghanistan) remain a disorderly cesspool of violence, chaos and regression. The much-expected restoration of socio-economic order and healing, never took place.

Energies and human investments sapped in evicting one corrupt system, was immediately squandered at the altar of competing powers (both local and foreign). These vested interests, belied the triumphant display, accompanying the defeat of a rotten 'system'. The initial unity and purpose of the popular movement gave way to the rise and assertion of ethnic, sectarian and divisive polarisation and groupings. This ensured that the situation remained as precarious, hopeless and collapsing, as it was before the mass uprising and eviction.

Sri Lankan activism and protest must pave way to an acceptable and perhaps even apolitical/bipartisan authority that will convey the hard road to recovery ahead, transparently. There is simply no silver bullet or quick fix solution. It will entail soliciting the financial packages from multilateral institutions or friendly nations (with the accompanying conditionalities) that will require stringent adherence and honouring.

The popular passions right now are wholly partisan and personal, however, the slow road to recovery cannot be either. There will be an expected tendency by Opposition ranks to usurp the political vacuum and even promise 'manna' that simply cannot be as forthcoming or expeditious, as may be tempting to promise loosely.

A modern-day version of 'Marshall Plan' is imperative. As Field Marshal Montgomery had famously said to his troops on Victory in Europe (VE) Day, May 8 1945, "we have won the German war. Let us now win the peace." However, a Marshall Plan like commitment and undertaking requires huge apolitical and hard-nosed economic-administrative decisions, that do not pander to distractive passions.

Even the revivalist 'economic miracle' achieved post-1945, by the war-battered Japanese, offers invaluable clues to the sort of sweeping reforms, administrative changes and clarity of purpose that was inculcated by the Japanese. From the Yoshida Doctrine, MacArthur Draft (including Article 9) to selective investments in high-yield sectors, the local situation and politics was simply not allowed to drift towards avenging the past humiliation, partisan passions or rebelling against the inevitable austerity measures (made by the finance expert Joseph Dodge). That was the key to recovery.

Sri Lanka's slide from amongst the most stable and progressive nations that had met Millennium Development Goals (MDG), and outperformed the neighbourhood on almost all economic matters is a masterclass on what a sudden turn towards unhinged politics and politicians can undo. While the Covid pandemic impacted all countries, but populist decisions like the deep tax cuts, transitioning into complete organic farming, mismanaging food crisis, with imports triggered by ill-advised agriculture/land policy, and then living in denial without course-correcting, broke the back of the struggling Island.

Rajapaksa's fondness for the Chinese 'aid' (personified by the fate of Hambantota port in Mahinda Rajapaksa's own constituency, which was ultimately taken over by the Chinese on a 99-year lease) contributed significantly to the debt-trap that looms.It was more regional politics than economics, at play.

There is a long and arduous road to recovery that is imminently possible and achievable, but only if partisan and muscular politics can be given a rest and if patience, discipline and expertise is allowed to navigate the path ahead. History is rather consistent on the overarching narrative of those lands that faced similar tribulation but did or didn't pull through out of the quagmire.

Lt General Bhopinder Singh is retired from the Indian Army.