Nepal To Get Its Twelfth Prime Minister In 16 Years

With Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda set to be replaced by K. P. Sharma Oli as Prime Minister on Sunday, Nepal will get its 12th PM since 2008, that is in a span of mere 16 years.

Chronic instability has become the defining characteristic of Nepalese politics. Prachanda had not had it easy since he became Prime Minister in December 2022. He had to face five no-confidence motions in two years.

The chief reason for the frequent change of Prime Ministers and governments in Nepal is one-upmanship among its leaders.

In Nepal, power circulates among a small elite. The elite groups in circulation are uniformly upper class and upper caste. They are collectively called the ‘Khas-Arya’ group (mainly comprising Brahmins and Kshatriyas).

Given the social homogeneity of the ruling class, changes in government don’t cause social or economic upheavals. It is business as usual pretty quickly after a change. This characteristic enables people to take governmental changes in their stride. There is little incentive for taking corrective measures.

The leaders in circulation number about three to five. Apart from formal labels, there are no actual ideological differences at play. Communist parties form alliances supposedly for ideological reasons but split up on the basis of personality issues.

In the current case, initially, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre led by Pushpa Kamal Prachanda formed an alliance and a government with the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist led by K. P. Sharma Oli. But this “ideological” alliance broke up due to differences over a recruitment scam, some Ambassadorial appointments and proposals for constitutional change.

Pro-China Oli quit his ideological alliance with the pro-China Prachanda and linked up with the Centrist Nepali Congress led by the pro-India Sher Bahadur Deuba. The geopolitical confusion that this may cause is of no consideration to the leaders.

Following the failure of the Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda government to secure a majority in Friday’s floor test, the Nepalese President Ram Chandra Poudel invited political parties to form a new government under Article 76 (2).

Art 76 (2) says that the President should appoint as Prime Minister a member of the House of Representatives (HoR) who can secure a majority with support from two or more parties.

Then, CPN-UML chief K. P. Sharma Oli presented to the President signatures of 165 HR members on Friday night.

Oli and Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba had jointly signed an application asking the President to appoint Oli as the new Prime Minister citing his majority support in the House of Representatives.

The Nepali Congress has 89 members in the House and the CPN-UML has 77, excluding the Speaker and a member who is currently in jail. To stake a claim to form a new government, a minimum of 138 signatures is required in the 275-seat House of Representatives.

Although fringe parties, including the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), the JSP-Nepal, the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, the Janamat Party and the Nagarik Unmukti Party have pledged support to the Nepali Congress-CPN-UML coalition, Oli presented his claim to the President only with the backing of the CPN-UML and the Nepali Congress.

The President’s decision is expected to be announced on Sunday. Until a new government is installed, the President has asked the outgoing PM, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, to serve as caretaker.

As per the July 1 deal between Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba and CPN-UML chair K.P.Sharma Oli, the two parties will lead the government on a rotational basis until next general elections scheduled for 2027.

Be that as it may, the CPN-IML-Nepali Congress is not guaranteed to last.

The CPN-UML and CPN-MC broke up over some key amendments to the 2015 Constitution proposed by the CPN-UML and the Nepali Congress. The CPN-MC was opposed to these proposals.

The CPN-UML and Nepali Congress want to adopt a 100% First-Past-the-Post System (FPPS) for the House of Representatives and the Provincial Assemblies in place of the existing mixed FPPS and Proportional Representation System (PRS).

As per Nepal’s electoral system, 165 members of Parliament (House of Representatives) are elected under the First-Past-the-Post System and 110 under the Proportional Representation (PR) system.

The 550 members of the seven Provincial Assemblies are also elected under the mixed FPPS-PR system.

The Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML have blamed the electoral system for political instability in Nepal and argue that the First Past Post System will ensure stable and strong governments

But the CPN-MC is opposed to 100% FPPS on the grounds that it will only benefit the upper castes and upper classes (the ‘Khas-Arya’ group). Tribal and religious minorities will also not have a voice under FPPS.

Those of this view point out that the ‘Khas-Arya’ group accounted for 70% of the membership in parliament until the PRS was introduced.

There are other contentious issues in the constitution which need to be attended to, such as the delimitation of provincial boundaries to reflect community interests. Communities want to get the maximum benefit from delimitation.

The Tharu community has been demanding a separate province as they are losing out in the Madesh province, where they are only 5% of the population. There is also a demand for the delineation of electoral constituencies for better community representation.

But a constitutional amendment is easier said than done. It requires a two-thirds majority in both the Lower House and the Upper House to pass the amendments. But the combined strength of the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML is short of a two-third majority.

Some small parties with their base in the Madhesh region are unlikely to extend support to a move that aims at scrapping the Proportional Representation system.

Political instability has hindered the implementation of effective policies and has resulted in a lack of progress in various sectors. One major factor contributing to political instability in Nepal is the existence of multiple political parties with conflicting ideologies.

The parties range from Maoist to Royalist, communist to Hindu chauvinist. Consensus on important issues is difficult to reach. With the result, Nepal remains socially and economically backward.

Political parties have engaged only in power struggles, with each seeking to gain and maintain control over the government. Governments are toppled on flimsy grounds. Foreign countries are allowed to meddle in Nepali politics and complicate matters.

There is a lack of enlightened leaders with a long term vision for the country. Corruption, casteism and nepotism are rampant, with the result locals and foreigners shy away from investing in the country, though the energy and tourism sectors offer great prospects.

A lot is pledged in foreign investment promotion conferences, but only a fraction is actually invested.

Be that as it may, thanks to remittances from Nepalis working abroad (US$ 11 billion in 2023) the percentage of people living below the poverty line came down from 25 in 2011 to 20 in 2023 according to government data.