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Nicolas Maduro had once again seized the Presidency of Venezuela following blatantly fraudulent elections held on July 28, 2024. The country’s National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that Maduro, who first came to power in 2021 had won a third term in office.
It said that Maduro had received 5.1 million votes, against more than 4.4 million for Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a former diplomat and the opposition’s candidate. But despite international urging that the legitimacy of the results be substantiated by making the voter tallies public, the Venezuelan Government had declined to do so.
The Opposition however had obtained the voter tallies and declared that they showed that their candidate Gonzalez received roughly 6.2 million votes compared with 2.7 million for Maduro.
The Unitary Platform, as the opposition coalition was called, had posted its ballot count online from 83% of voting machine tallies, which gave Edmundo Gonzalez a 67% support. Gonzalez had gone into hiding after the elections.
Vice President Delcy Rodriguez had posted that Gonzalez had first voluntarily sought refuge in the Spanish embassy in Caracas. Then he had left the country possibly to Argentina. Venezuela revoked Brazil's authorization to represent Argentine interests and had also broken diplomatic relations with Argentina. But latest reports said he had landed in Spain seeking asylum
Huge protests had broken out in Caracas and other cities within hours of the electoral council. Citizens had thought that Maduro’s fate would be as predicted by pre-election polling that showed him losing by a huge margin.
Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado who had surfaced to join and lead the protestors said Maduro’s government had kidnapped her lawyer. Other prominent political figures had also been arrested. Residents in Caracas said pro-Maduro paramilitary groups had been painting black X marks on their houses.
The protests turned violent at times, and law enforcement responded with tear gas and rubber pellets. Reports from Victim Monitor, a human rights group, said that 23 people had died in the protests. Foro Penal reported that there had been 1,581 arrests.
The post election treatment of the protestors was along the lines of Maduro’s declaration of “Operacion Tun Tun”, or “Operation Knock Knock” which involved raids on the residences of opposition members and dissidents and arresting them. Maduro had declared at a rally in August 2024, where he mimed knocking on an opposition member’s door, that anyone who overstepped would face “tun tun”.
The conduct of the July 28 election was reminiscent of the two previous elections that Maduro had won. In the 2018 election there had been worldwide media coverage of the vote-rigging in favour of Maduro. Popular opposition leaders were banned from contesting the election.
His first election, in 2013, was met by protests and accusations of fraud. Tomas Straka, a historian and professor at the Andres Bello Catholic University in Caracas, had commented that many Venezuelans were comparing the current situation to the period of military dictatorship, from 1948 to 1958.
Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado were accused of inciting members of the military to commit crimes. With Maduro using the army and security forces against the protestors, Gonzalez and Ms. Machado had called on officials to ‘join the side of the people’.
Their appeal to the army and security forces was rubbished by Defense Minister and army chief Vladimir Padrino who said Maduro had the forces' absolute loyalty. There were some in the country who anticipated that perhaps with the turmoil and sanctions affecting Venezuela, the military would topple Maduro.
Venezuela’s Attorney General Tarek William Saab had accused Gonzalez and his allies of instigating disobedience and insurrection. Gonzalez had been summoned by the government to testify as part of an investigation into the opposition’s claims of victory.
When he refused to comply an arrest warrant was issued against him. This move was widely criticised, most vehemently by the United States, whom Maduro had accused of being involved in instigating the protests.
The United States’ State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller had told the media that the Administration condemned the arrest warrant for Edmundo Gonzalez. He said it was an arbitrary and politically motivated action demonstrating the extent of Maduro’s actions to maintain power.
The statement came in the context of the US Administration stating that the United States recognised Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's opponent and opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez as the winner of Venezuela's disputed presidential election, and rejected Maduro's claim of victory.
Condemnation of the arrest warrant had come from other countries too-some formerly friendly with Maduro. As Miller told the media Argentina, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Paraguay, Peru, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay had condemned the unjustified arrest warrant.
Celso Amorim, a foreign policy adviser to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, had said that there was an authoritarian escalation in Venezuela. Canada had called for Maduro’s government to stop repression and not to take actions designed to silence democratic voices and create a climate of fear.
Faced with continuing criticism domestic and international President Maduro had approached the Venezuelan Supreme Court to conduct an audit of the presidential election after opposition leaders disputed his claim of victory. The move was seen as meaningless as foreign observers said the court was too close to the government to produce an independent review. Under Venezuela’s system the court’s justices were proposed by federal officials and ratified by the National Assembly, dominated by Maduro supporters.
Venezuela has been under sanctions from the US. The US had lifted sanctions imposed in 2019 on the oil sector after a meeting in Barbados where Venezuela agreed to take steps towards holding a free and fair presidential election.
The sanctions had been reimposed on Venezuela's oil and gas sector, with the US stating that President Nicolás Maduro had not committed to free and fair elections.
While Russia and China and some others had congratulated Maduro, the European Union, United Kingdom and the US were the most important powers refusing to give any legitimacy to Maduro’s re-election. Maduro’s regional allies, Colombia, Brazil and Mexico, had actually suggested that the elections should be repeated.
There was extensive criticism of the conduct of the elections , with the USA, long hostile to Maduro for trampling on democratic and human rights, voicing the strongest criticism. Among other things the Biden administration had seized a $13m aeroplane in the Dominican Republic that had allegedly been bought for Maduro in violation of economic sanctions.
The US had, just after the election, drafted a list of about 60 Venezuelan government officials and family members who could be sanctioned in the first wave.
The continuing crisis had had a drastic impact on the economy and on the people. Venezuela was home to the world’s largest proven crude reserves. Venezuela’s estimated debt burden is possibly more than $150 billion. Two-thirds of the government’s budget is met through oil exports but in 2024 this figure could be only 58 percent.
Government policies of price controls; expropriation of numerous farmlands and various industries and a near-total freeze on any access to foreign currency at reasonable exchange rates have resulted in severe shortages.
There have been steep price increases of all common goods, including food, water, household products, spare parts, tools and medical supplies. Several technological firms and most automobile makers have left the country.
Corruption, unemployment, mismanagement of the oil sector, and hyperinflation have had a very adverse impact on living conditions. Living standards for many Venezuelans have deteriorated dramatically, with a high rate of extreme poverty and malnutrition. One consequence of this has been an exodus of nearly 6,59 million by June 2024 mostly to Colombia, Peru , Brazil, Ecuador and Chile.
There does not seem an immediate scenario that could alleviate the country’s condition and the problems that the people are facing. Hostility of other countries and ruthless oppression at home are factors that would hinder any possibility of guaranteeing a better life for Venezuelans.
Perhaps, like it has happened elsewhere, the internal dissent might coalesce into a movement that members of the armed forces would be comfortable with. There are no signs yet but the growing disgust with Maduro’s politics could spark off a reckoning.
