A definitive shift in the global distribution of power was sealed during the President Xi Jinping and President Putin meetings in Moscow last week. Xi’s concluding remark: ‘right now there are changes not seen for a hundred years’ and that ‘we are driving these changes’ showed a power projection that is backed up by material, strategic and relational issues.
This meeting, which comes at a time when Xi has been elected for an unprecedented third term and Putin’s ratings are high, projected two confident leaders backed by their state apparatuses and people. They presented a new kind of united front built on a complex past and common present.
Of immediacy was the conflict in Ukraine, and the two leaders stated that Russia was ready for negotiations and peace talks, that China supported the way for a negotiated peace. Both believed that the ‘legitimate security interests’ of all sides needed to be accommodated and bloc politics shunned.
The Chinese have made an effort to keep a distance on the Ukraine war, maintain neutrality, giving humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, but share a framework on the reasons for the war with Russia, much like several other countries of the Global South.
On the first anniversary of the war, the Chinese published a generalised peace plan that can provide a basis for a ceasefire and negotiations. These proposals, that could have led to an armistice, were rejected by the United States. Thus revealing US interests and the nature of the proxy war.
Contrary to speculation there is no element of any military alliance between Russia and China. The Chinese especially are distant to any such possibility. Their common vision is against such alliances and they would like to show that security of states is possible without military blocs. Further both these countries advocate an inclusive security formula which does not undermine the security of the other. How the Chinese practice this in their neighbourhood is yet to unfold.
The Xi Putin meeting projected a common vision on international affairs and their focused construction for a multipolar international system. Despite the drive for unipolar hegemony by the collective West, this process appears irreversible. At the core of the partnership is their commitment to ‘coordination, no matter whatever the changing events’.
The conversations between the two presidents reveal their regular engagement and coordination based on regular conversations on international issues.
So China’s mediation between the Saudis and Iran, Chinese foray into the international politics of the Middle East, Turkiye’s talks with Syria backed by Russia, do reveal that Russia provides background support.
Another instance of the Xi Putin coordination was their Joint Statement on the need to de-escalate tensions in North Korea, where again they repeated their formula of inclusive security and safeguarding security concerns of all sides, removal of sanctions, denuclearisation of the Peninsula.
The major thrust of the meeting was Xi’s interest in securing a steady supply of gas and petroleum. The agreements inked for a second ‘Power of Siberia’ Pipeline to be constructed by Gazprom and the Chinese State CNPC ensures smooth supply to China but also confirms Russia’s change in the direction of pipelines from Europe to China.
Further this assuages China’s fears of uninterrupted commodities supplies from the Russian land routes, in the event of any potential maritime blockade because of the escalation around Taiwan Straits.
The 80 bilateral agreements signed by the huge number of officials in the Chinese delegation include cooperation and trade from agriculture exports to machinery and manufacturing are to expand to reach a goal of USD 200 Billion.
Russia will build civil nuclear power facilities in China, cooperate in the construction of civil aircraft, ship building, and auto manufacturing. Russia, like the Central Asian Republics, is part of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and Putin will attend the next meeting of the BRI Summit.
China and Russia have initiated steps to challenge the US Dollar, which is the root of American hegemony. These moves were hastened with sanctions and as the West pushed Russia out of the dollar zone.
Russia, China and many countries,including India, have been encouraging trade in national currencies for some time. Already, two thirds of trade between Russia and China, worth about USD 150 Billion, is in local currency.
Now, Putin endorsed the use of the Chinese Yuan in settlements between Russia and other countries. So steps towards the internationalisation of Renminbi will be furthered, enhancing US threat perceptions.
The clear background to this meeting are the Chinese and Russian assessments of US national security strategies that designate Russia as the immediate threat and China as the long-term, most dangerous competitor and malign threat. The West’s twinning the Sino-Russian threats whereby NATO’s strategies to decimate and weaken Russia irreversibly and simultaneously isolate and contain China are repeated by their leaders and evident in their policies, this last year hastened the Sino-Russian coordination and collaboration.
The continuous arming of Taiwan, encouraging its independence; isolating China economically by putting export controls that curb and target Chinese technologies, industries and manufacturing; US hysteria over the Chinese weather balloon showed to the Chinese how a small error could lead to military escalation against them.
The most serious issue for the Chinese is the US support for major militarisation of the Indo Pacific in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines and extending military bases in many small Pacific islands. Further the Australia, UK, US (AUKUS) Agreement that brings nuclear submarines to the Pacific. It is no wonder that China and Russia believe they need security and strategic coordination.
There is a need to question the speculation from some reports. The China-Russia security and economic cooperation is not a military alliance like NATO.
However, these meetings and the documents that precede it do send signals of a close relationship that seeks to push the US out of the Eurasian landmass. The two countries will construct a multipolar world and oppose any axis of great powers.
There will be speculation that as NATO escalates its militarism in the Indo-Pacific, the Russia- Sino relationship can begin to acquire a military and security dimension. Especially since their joint statement says that this ‘friendship that will not tolerate coercion from any third party.’ However there is no evidence of this as yet.
The Western press is alleging that the Chinese are providing military supplies to Russia. There is no evidence of this- Russia has not asked and in any case China does not want to be sanctioned.
The argument being made that Russia has ceded its sovereignty and become a client state of China is patently untrue. Russia has demonstrated its capacity and agency in equal terms. This partnership does not pose a military threat to the region and they underline this with their collective support to groupings like the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisations.
The Sino-Russia meeting projected that they provide an alternate for the global south to turn to for development and non- militarised security. This narrative of multipolarity finds resonance in many countries in the Global South that want and need peace, economic development for their people.
It is also true that these countries have many serious domestic challenges. At the same time, they would like to leverage their relations with both the West and with China and Russia for development projects, while making strategic choices.
There remain several contentious issues that China has, whether it is India, Vietnam and several in South East Asia. These need resolution through confidence building and give and take conducted through bilateral diplomatic channels in a fair way and set codes of conduct.
If China wants to be an international peace broker then its problems in the region must get priority for a peaceful settlement.
There can be no doubt that multipolarity has arrived. Lines are being drawn between the traditional Atlantic powers who want to maintain unipolarity versus the Eurasian ones who will ensure a multipolar system.
This division can lead to a new cold war or enforce bipolarity. In this, no one should forget the role that much of the Global South is playing by maintaining neutrality, opposing war and supporting multipolarity.
Anuradha Chenoy is Adjunct Professor Jindal Global University and former Dean, School JNU. Views expressed are the writer’s own.