Harris, Trump and India

Electioneering for the US presidential election is at a crescendo. Former POTUS Barack Obama is vigorously canvassing for Kamala Harris while Elon Musk is providing extraordinary support to Donald Trump. Trump has faced assassination attempts. Mudslinging between the two presidential candidates is continuing.

Lead reported between the two is slender and fluctuating – sometimes with Trump and sometimes with Harris because of Hispanic voters and suburban women. President Joe Biden wanted Trump jailed for 14 days before the voting day. There have been clashes between supporters of Harris and Trump. The circus will continue till the last day.

The New York Times has said that since the POTUS has the authority to launch any of the roughly 3,700 US nuclear weapons, voters must choose wisely, considering that Biden is 88 and Trump 77.

This indirectly hints to Harris (aged 60) the preferred choice. But if age is the criteria, how was Biden elected president; who uses a CPAP machine at night and suffers partial dementia - publicly displaying memory loss frequently? There are many who view Trump as temperamental. But voters need to choose someone who is not just a wimp puppet of America’s “deep state”.

Despite the overall show of camaraderie and Prime Minister Narendra Modi hugging Biden tightly. Indo-US relations are running pretty low; the main reason being American support to Canada accusing India for killing Hardeep Singh Nijjar, and more so, plotting to kill American-terrorist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun (CIA’s weasel), with the US Justice Department having announced charges against Indian Government employees. Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval could not even accompany Modi to the Quad Leaders’ Summit chaired by Biden for fear of being summoned by the US Court.

The recent India-China agreement on resuming patrolling in eastern Ladakh, is unlikely to be welcomed by the US, especially since it views Quad as a military alliance against China. But America’s main worry is the extent of India-China economic cooperation, the level of which could go very high if the border issue is kept aside – which China has always advocated.

Is China going slow against India, focusing on Taiwan first? Look at the China-Russia partnership despite Chinese claims on Russia’s Far East, as well as the Vladivostok Port.

Joined by Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE, BRICS represents 45% of the world’s population and 35% the Global GDP (in PPP terms) compared to 29% of the G7. BRICS is expanding at a high rate, has proposed a blockchain-based BRICS pay system (alternative to the SWIFT platform) to promote the use of local currencies, 159 out of 193 countries are said to have signed up, and a BRICS currency is also being talked about. India-China economic confluence would speed up the BRICS challenge to Western economic hegemony.

Jeffrey D Sachs, while explaining how the CIA effected regime change in Pakistan, details that Imran Khan was removed because the US detested him playing the US, China and Russia at the same time. Won’t the US similarly view Modi running with the hare and hunting with the hounds? It can, therefore, be taken for granted that the US is already working on how to upset the newfound Indo-US applecart, especially when the US military is reviving abandoned WWII-era airfields in preparation of the coming war with China (https://youtu.be/CW1TYDVBSmI?si=4px7lftWKLkWpcQl).

Indian American voters in the US (numbering around 2.1 million) are the largest Asian community that would have an impact on the choice of the next POTUS. However, opinions are divided among the Indian Americans, as well as within India over Harris or Trump.

Trump spoke in favour of Hindus and has indicated a Republican Indian American could be part of his government if he is elected. At the same time, Trump is getting ready to deport illegal Indian immigrants – numbered around eight lakhs. Trump has also said he will sanction those who dump the dollar – although American sanctions have hurt the West more.

Harris is Indian American but will follow the same policies Biden has been executing. A plane load of deported illegal Indian immigrants, with a substantial number of Gujaratis has already landed in India. Her government orchestrated the regime change in Bangladesh and installed a radical anti-India government, opening another front for India that was hitherto not volatile.

Harris could backstab India harder given that the US has been wanting an India-China war to extract strategic and economic benefits, furthering its national interests.

Indian Americans no doubt are one of the fastest-growing and financially influential immigrant groups in the US but they are known to be generally divided along religious and political lines. By and large they are concentrated in four key states. Three are Democratic states (including California and Jersey who will vote for Harris) and one is a swing state.

The elections will be controlled by the swing states. Since Trump spoke in favour of the Hindus, the BJP association of US has come out in favour of Trump.

But Muslims in America and those upset by the Gaza policies also have a big role to play. Not all Indian Americans are for Trump. There are strong IIT associations pushing for Harris especially because Trump is expected to implement import tariffs affecting a huge number of exports from India.

Finally, as far as America’s strategic policy (including with regard to India, South Asia and the Indo-Pacific) is concerned, both the Democrats and Republicans will remain aligned. So, India will need to be extremely careful, whoever may be the next POTUS.

Lt General Prakash Katoch is an Indian Army veteran. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.