Iran’s Response To An Assassination: Retribution Or Restraint?

If revenge is a dish best served cold, Iran will serve it. Israel’s murder of Ismail Haniyeh, chairman of Hamas’ Politburo in his hotel room in Tehran where he attended the swearing in of newly elected reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian is an unforgivable violation of Iran’s sovereignty. It is also an abuse of Iran’s protocol of honouring a guest of state.

Israel has crossed Iran’s red line and retaliation is on the cards.

Israel’s actions in Iran are the second part of their relentless genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians in Gaza. Israel sees Lebanon (Hezbollah), Iran, Syria, factions within Iraq, Ansarullah in Yemen as a threat to its existence in the region.

The truth is that this ‘Axis of Resistance’ is in most circles that support Hamas and opposes the Israeli state and its propaganda machine.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in various speeches has pointed out that the root cause for its insecurity is Iran, and it needs to be decimated.

But Iran is a powerful state and for war with Iran and their allies, Israel needs the United States, not just to supply weapons and cash but to be a part of the physical operations to target Iran. So far, the US despite its deep animosity towards Iran has restricted itself to sanctions and backing Israel with weapons and cash.

So, Netanyahu set traps to provoke Iran into attacking to make Israel look like a victim so the US will have no option but to assist its proxy in the Middle East. There is no way that the Jewish funders in a US election year can be displeased.

Israel had this in mind when they first carried out a missile strike in April on the premises of the Iranian consulate in Syria that killed 16 people including eight officials of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials.

But at this time Iranian response was restrained with only multiple drones that slowly swarmed into Israel to target Israeli military installations, most of which were repelled by five nations’ (US Airforce and Navy, RAF, French Airforce, Israel, and support from Jordan) missiles. This time a more serious response is being predicted.

Iran blamed the US for supporting Israel in both attacks. Netanyahu spoke to the US Congress (where he received some 50 ovations during a 55-minute speech) and consulted the oval office just a few days before Haniyeh was murdered and it is logical to assume that the US was aware of these moves.

Now as the world waits for an Iranian response, diplomatic activity is rife. Jordan’s foreign minister Ayman Safadi went on a rare visit to Iran urging de-escalation.

The reason is that the Jordanian regime is rather unpopular since the majority of people in Jordan are Palestinian and there is great resentment and restiveness amongst the people with massive demonstrations against Israeli genocide that can turn against the Jordan king and regime.

The leaders of the G-7 countries have called for restraint by Iran. But clearly Iran feels that they should have restrained Israel, especially because Iran showed adequate restraint after the April attacks. If any de-escalation needed to happen it was from April to August, or with a ceasefire in Gaza.

Instead, Israel has rejected any cease fire, attacked the Iranian embassy, targeted a commander of the Hezbollah in Beirut and killed Haniyeh who was the chief negotiator for the hostage exchange, key to an Israeli ceasefire as requested repeatedly by the international community.

Iran’s rejection of the G-7 and other requests for restraint have led to US triggering threats with Secretary of State Blinken saying the US will defend Israel in case of an attack and putting on high alert the multiple aircraft carriers that have moved into the Mediterranean Sea.

Meanwhile, Sergei Shoigu, head of the Russian National Security Council and former defence minister headed to Iran. Russia does not want to see destabilisation in this region as its energy is directed to its war in Ukraine.

But Iran is a close ally and they signalled both support and restraint. Reports in the Israeli media say that Russia has provided Iran with an air defence system and Russia is deepening its military cooperation with Iran.

Meanwhile Israel’s low intensity war with Hezbollah is likely to escalate after Israel’s assassination of Lebanese senior military leader Faud Shukr with an air strike in Beirut. Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel to await the group's response at the funeral of Shukr. But Israel clearly is risking all since it is convinced that US and NATO will back it.

So even as the global majority is opposing war and further militarisation, Israel and its backers have once again provoked war. The Middle East can be up in flames and wars have unknown consequences. None of the main actors appear to be in a mood for peace or negotiations or diplomacy.

Anuradha Chenoy is an Associate Fellow of The Transnational Institute, and Adjunct Professor, Jindal Global University (Haryana, India). Views expressed are the writer’s own.