The bell has tolled for the Prime Ministership of Rishi Sunak. It is time to take stock of his sudden jump to power, his eventful days in office and his relegation, perhaps forever, to the back benches of history. And to assess whether it was politics or economics (or a bit of both) that led to his success and downfall.
The rise of a public school-educated son from a family of East African migrants with Indian parentage and a successful career in global finance, not just to the chancellorship of the UK but also to its Prime ministership was unexpected and meteoric. When he became the first British PM of Indian and Asian descent in 2022, he also set the record for being its youngest head since the 18th century.
It is widely rumored that he turned to politics on the advice of his father-in-law, who had made billions by founding a tech company, which had pioneered a new business model for India. Rishi’s elevation to the British Cabinet in 2019, when he was a junior minister with only 4 years of experience as Tory MP (after two election victories) owed much to the political circumstances of the time.
Boris Johnson was in his heyday, after replacing Theresa May as PM and winning a clear mandate (the highest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher) to implement the decision taken in an earlier referendum to leave the EU. In the vacuum created by the consequent exit of several senior party leaders, Sunak was propelled upwards to work alongside the Chancellor of the Exchequer, where he caught the eye of Johnson and his advisor, Dominic Cummings, the architect of Brexit and the power behind the throne. When his boss, Sajid Javid, resigned in protest against the involvement of Cummings in budgetary discussions, Sunak moved up to fill the vacancy.
But, Johnson’s and Cummings’s carefully laid plans for post-Brexit revival were derailed by the pandemic that came out of Wuhan. Overnight, the burden of economic shutdown fell on the Chancellor’s shoulders. He rose to the challenge by doing what every country was forced to do. Consumers and producers had to be kept afloat with financial support during the time needed to control and manage Covid.
This was not the occasion to talk of fiscal deficits and debt ceilings. More than most, Sunak was aware of the pitfalls of runaway inflation and is believed to have advised Johnson accordingly. The furlough scheme, devised by the Chancellor and the PM to assist closed businesses to retain staff, was perhaps the best support program offered by any country during the Coronavirus era. It made Sunak a household name and the darling of the British public.
As the pandemic was conquered, the burden of economic revival fell squarely on the Chancellor, who received little support from an erratic PM. Sunak must have known, better than the rest of the Cabinet, the perils of dipping too freely into public coffers. He must have anticipated the monster of inflation looming on the horizon. But, he may have underestimated how difficult it would be to induce families still cowering within homes (and being paid for it) to return to normal pursuits in an increasingly infection-free country. And was perhaps induced by his colleagues to overplay his hand by extending subsidies like the “eat out to help out” scheme to kickstart the hospitality industry and the energy rebate for families to get through the 2021 winter.
The subsequent budget deficit coupled with the energy crisis and the black hole of the NHS coalesced into an economic bomb, which made Sunak look like an unfeeling monster in the eyes of the public. Economic realities were rapidly morphing into political disillusionment with the once-popular Conservatives. Giving a ravenous press and clamoring opponents the perfect opportunity to spread canards about the non-dom status of the Chancellor’s wife, his own American green card and a host of other improprieties (never illegalities) that distanced him from the ordinary citizen. A bitter initiation for Rishi Sunak into the fickle realities of popular politics
He never recovered fully from this fall from grace. There was no help from the party or the PM, who were lurching from one ludicrous crisis of confidence to another-its leaders caught on camera canoodling or partying in locked down offices, merrily defying the dictates they had themselves laid down for citizens.
The shenanigans of the Tories in their decline are not for the fainthearted. Boris Johnson had stormed the Red Wall bastions of the Labour Party in 2019 using the promise of Brexit as his single point agenda, but he could not lie his way out of Partygate. Sunak remained beside him trying to navigate the crisis as minister after minister walked out of the government. The Chancellor’s decision to abandon ship was the last straw. Bad politics had finally precipitated the end of the Brexit dream, taking with it the fortunes of the Conservatives.
The Tories had not yet hit rock bottom. Sunak’s economic acumen made him a natural contender for the top spot, but party members opted for the bold revival plans of his rival, Liz Truss and voted her in as Prime Minister. Her daring experiment with textbook capitalism had one fatal flaw-it disregarded the power of financial markets to determine a country’s credit rating. The growth plan in Truss’s mini-budget evoked widespread scepticism among bankers and analysts, who promptly reacted with an allround increase in interest rates, that was immediately passed on to ordinary citizens. She has today the dubious distinction of being the British PM with the shortest tenure-49 days. When she bowed out, the path was clear-Sunak was the last man standing. The inexorable power of economic events had at last brought him to 10 Downing Street.
But not for long. Less than two years were left to turn the country around, since elections were looming in December 2024. There was no scope for unpopular taxes or subsidy cuts. Nor for radical reform of the NHS (whose waiting lists had become unmanageable) and programs that could quickly rejuvenate the service economy. And no way of holding off boats filled with migrants that regularly crossed the Channel. Sunak was reduced to a safe pair of hands steering a drowning ship with a mutinous crew. Every poll projected a rout for the Tories and ministers and MPs started dropping out of the race.
Beleaguered on all sides and fearing an even worse defeat, Sunak brought the election forward to June in a surprise decision that brought down on his head the ire of his colleagues. At the end, he became the fall guy, who could do nothing right. The Tory campaign was itself smeared by scandal; several persons connected with the party were caught laying bets on the timing of the elections. There were no achievements for the PM to peddle before voters-he could only warn them lamely of what to expect if they turned to Labour.
No wonder then that at the call of the bell, the Tories found themselves at a new low-just 19% of the seats in Parliament. The damage to Sunak himself was not as bad as feared. He continues as MP, elected with a respectable margin. As party leader, however, his performance was dismal. The electoral battlefield was strewn with
Tory casualties (among the defeated were a dozen sitting members including the former Prime Minister, Liz Truss). Rishi Sunak now continues as lame-duck Opposition leader till a successor elected by party members is anointed in his place.
Many believe that this is the end of the road for Sunak the politician. His detractors have always accused him of wanting to take the high road back into finance in New York or California. I hope for something different. His skills as Parliamentarian and Chancellor have never been in doubt. He was lauded as Parliamentarian of the year by Spectator magazine in 2021. His constituency has rallied behind him. Why should the allure of adding to his millions prevail over the attractions of the heady world of politics? The challenge of managing public finances might even be more seductive than the routine of jostling private portfolios. His party and his country could use his undoubted gifts. Let us hope then that, like Arnold Schwarzenegger, he will be back soon!