The Gray Zone of Diplomacy

In any other time, under another government perhaps, the side shows of diplomacy, hold sway. And worry mandarins in the Foreign Office, as they all know that often governments send out warning signals through the sidelines and expect the targeted country to understand and move towards a course correction. When they do not then relations falter.

It was not so long ago that the Union Minister of External Affairs Jaishankar was the blue eyed boy of then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and spent valuable time and energy in calmly fire fighting diplomatic murmurs on issues such as the civilian nuclear deal with the Americans, Nepal, China of course, and even Russia that was smarting under a cut in defence deals with India. As a result Indian diplomacy was respected, with the capitals across the world engaging, arguing, and working out the fissures directly with New Delhi.

One remembers - after former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee announced the Pokhran nuclear blasts to a stunned press at his residence - walking in for a briefing by the National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra. The entire focus, in the wave of a global attack on India for going nuclear, was on Pakistan with MEA ‘sources’ admitting that if Pakistan followed suit it would help take some of the pressure off. Then diplomat and now Union Minister Hardeep Singh greeted informal questions about the same with a fingers crossed sign, even as he and all concerned diplomats went into high gear to assuage world sentiment. There was no trolling then of course, but even the briefings on were not jingoistic, and a ‘we stand by our decision’ stance was tempered continuously with a ‘we are sure the world will understand.’

There has been a huge shift from India’s quiet and mature diplomacy to snarls and threats and attacks. The wording of rebuttals has lost the diplomatic flavour, and hence the firmness associated with India. Counters sound more like desperate, angry utterings than considered policy. This approach might appease some at home, but the world is not taking kindly to it with the international media reports becoming increasingly hostile as a result. The reports sent back by the missions here to their headquarters on a regular basis will reflect the troll attack for instance on former President Barack Obama for speaking out on the human rights situation in India. He was trolled mercilessly for his comments in an interview to an American television channel, with those leading the attack here forgetting that one, he is very close to current President Joe Biden who was hosting Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the time, and the two have worked very closely together under the Barack Presidency.

This response reduces the space for maneuvering, particularly when several Democrats are not happy with the government in India, and along with human rights bodies in the US have been exerting pressure on the Biden Administration to read the riot act as it were to New Delhi. That he has not, and instead went out of his way to lay out the proverbial red carpet for PM Modi is significant, but then even the White House had to come out with a strong statement in support of a woman journalist who was also trolled ruthlessly in India for asking an inconvenient question to the Indian Prime Minister. This creates fissures and will make it difficult for President Biden to withstand the pressure at home with equanimity. Particularly if the liberal values that he is expected to uphold in office come under constant attack by those who partners with.

India has to take on board the fact that Obama’s remarks, the White House insistence for a ‘one question each’ press conference (of sorts), and the choice of question are all indications of a second message being delivered to New Delhi from the ‘sidelines.’ This makes it all the more necessary that instead of coming out with all fists flying the Ministry of External Affairs should bring into play the diplomatic finesse it was once renowned for. Unfortunately, it seems to be falling on the other side.

The same holds true for the plenary held by the European Union Parliament on the eve of PM Modi’s visit to France. The 705 directly elected representatives of the Parliament endorsed a strongly worded resolution on Manipur, that spoke of divisiveness and Hindu majoritarianism, and expressed concern in no uncertain terms for the attacks on the Christians in the state. Several Members of the European Parliament spoke out, with one even suggesting a visit to Manipurby a EU delegation. (It was not so long ago that the government here under PM Modi had organised such a visit to Kashmir). The members and the resolution linked human rights to trade, saying that economic dealings with India were dependent on its record on human rights.

The warm reception by French President Emmanuel Macron for PM Modi has thus been overshadowed. The bugles sounded, but for diplomats this resolution must have been at the forefront as it reflects increasing concern within the EU per se. New Delhi shrugged it off with its usual shrill use of words but clearly there is a huge job for Jaishankar and his team to work through the criticism and assuage sentiments. More so as the French media has been highly critical of the Indian PM.

It has to be remembered that for America and Europe democratic and liberal values are fundamental to its diplomatic relations. For instance even America felt the pressure after Saudi Arabia killed (not sure if it is still alleged!) journalist Khashoggi and despite not wanting to, the then Administration had to cool off for a while. Of course, it is double speech most of the time but the liberal, democratic forces do constitute a pressure group that governments in these regions can ignore only at their peril.

The Modi government here is drawing strength from two factors. One, it is a huge defence purchaser today at a time when the coffers of most countries are drying up. Both the US and France are bending over backwards to sell their goods, and the deals with India are huge by any standards.

And two, the western dependence on India to contain China.

But India is not moving away from either, with or without the present government. Manmohan Singh had opened the doors for the West even more wide than Vajpayee, institutionalising pragmatism in India’s foreign policy with the help of mandarins like Jaishankar. Defence deals, and China will remain as the hallmark of all governments for a while to come. There will be no real shift on these issues even if the Congress was to come to power tomorrow. Washington knows that. And hence the increasing number of sideline shows highlighting democracy and liberal values that are not deal breakers at the moment, but can move into that zone faster than anticipated.