Vive La Difference

France and the United Kingdom, cousins across the English Channel, are both functioning democracies today. We tend to forget, however, the somewhat different paths by which they arrived at the same destination.

Britain was cautious in transitioning from absolute monarchy to parliamentary democracy. it moved gradually, step by step, with an occasional jump, during the Glorious Revolution of 1688, for example.

France took a more stormy route, overcoming opposition from kings, aristocrats and the church and fending off continental neighbours, who were threatened by its influence on their own polities. The United Kingdom still has a king as the head of State, while France exults in being a Republic. Recent elections in both countries are a sharp reminder of these past histories.

The two events, announced at around the same time last month, took place within a gap of a few days. They are of slightly different magnitudes. Britain has ushered in a new Prime Minister by reelecting fresh Members of Parliament to the legislature, since it has a Cabinet system of government.

France has gone through legislative elections only, as the chief executive, the President, is elected for a fixed term.

Both elections were suddenly called by heads of government before they fell due and both leaders are being castigated for it. Rishi Sunak, the British Prime Minister, would have had to face the electorate later on this year.

There is no agreement as to why he decided to seek an electoral verdict earlier. Faced with adverse opinion polls, did he fear a leadership contest, defection of MPs or a big defeat after more months in office if his plan to shift illegal immigrants to Rwanda was blocked by courts?

As for France, one widely-believed theory is that President Macron resolved to dissolve the legislature in a Machiavellian manoeuvre to induct Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally into the government and discredit it before the next Presidential election slated for 2027.

He, too, had had a foretaste of the resurgence of his rival in the increased seats secured by her candidates in recent elections to the European Parliament.

The two major ways of conducting democratic elections pioneered by France and the UK, which serve as models for most countries today, were showcased in these elections. The strong and weak points of each method were also on full display.

The UK uses the first-past-the-post system, which is prevalent in many Commonwealth countries too. Its absurdities are now in sharp focus, since it has enabled the Labour party to storm into Parliament with two-thirds of the seats, having gained only one-third of the votes (the poorest showing for any democratically elected British PM).

The far-right Reform party under Nigel Farage too has a legitimate grouse, since it has gained only 5 seats after obtaining more votes than the Liberal Democrats, who have taken 72 seats. The air over Britain is electric with demands for a fairer way to reflect the choices of voters in the legislature.

Brits dislike playing second fiddle to their neighbour, but some, at least, are now reluctantly talking about the continental alternative of proportional representation.

The French election model is focused on ensuring that legislators have the support of the majority of voters. Constituencies in which the first ballot does not result in an outright winner go through a second round featuring only parties which have a substantial vote share.

In Britain, both Labour and the Liberal Democrats gamed the system by exploiting the prevailing hostility to the incumbent Conservatives to capture votes in marginal seats. French political tactics are different.

In closely fought elections, voters use the first round to signal approval or displeasure of the various parties. When counting is done and leaders of the race are known, they sally forth again in larger numbers and often reverse the original verdict. The leading party of the first round can thus be beaten into second place.

Over the years, French voters have repeatedly united in the final election to keep the far-right (first led by Jean-Marie Le Pen and now by his daughter Marine) out of the Elysee (the Presidential palace) and the Matignon (the Prime Minister’s residence).

Recently, this party has gradually increased its public support and, as feared by many on the left and the centre, emerged with the largest share of votes (more than one-third) in the first round of elections.

But, it has once again lost the Prime Ministership and control of the National Assembly, due to tactical withdrawals of the candidates fielded by broad coalitions of left and centrist parties. This has pushed it back to 143 seats, behind the New Popular Front with 182 seats and Macron’s Ensemble of 163 seats.

Pollsters in the UK were, by and large, on target, despite failing to foresee Labour’s lower vote share and overestimating the loss of Tory seats (a few had predicted defeat for PM Sunak). But, the debacle suffered by the far right in France took everyone by surprise.

Le Pen’s lead in the first round had been expected for some time. Her relegation to third place at the end, however, astonished the party and all observers.

Clearly, at the last moment, French voters were not prepared to hand over the legislature to the far right. The paradox is that the National Rally is now pointing out that it would have won the election under the British system, while its counterpart in the UK, the Reform party, is railing against the failure of democracy under the same system.

At first glance, the Left seems to have triumphed in both countries. But, the ideological outcomes of the elections may be different. Perhaps, Britain is less wed to hard core left and right doctrines than France.

Policies pursued by the outgoing Tories and incoming Labourites are not too far from the centre. Such moderation is absent in French politics, where Left is Left and Right is Right and “never the twain shall meet”.

Jean-Luc Melenchon, (of La France Insoumise-France Unbowed, the largest party of the Left coalition), nicknamed the Jeremy Corbyn of France, has already staked his claim to implement the policies in his manifesto through the legislature. These include rolling back the age for the national pension, price controls and 90% income tax rates, where necessary.

This is a sore embarrassment for Macron, who has been struggling to rein in profligate schemes so that he can meet the EU's budget deficit targets.

In some ways, the economic and political problems of Britain and France are similar. There is little headroom for the high income tax that populists demand, as it will drive away investors to fresh pastures and push down growth and employment. More borrowing is also ruled out, since a larger debt servicing burden will induce financial markets to downgrade the country’s credit rating.

France already has good quality health care through partnership between private and public providers, unlike Britain where the NHS is State-funded. But, it has the same immigration and growth challenges.

Huge numbers of illegal migrants washing up on French shores and crossing over to Britain has made the “Stop the Boats” slogan a potent vote-gathering tool for the far right.

Further additions to expenditure demanded by the Left (and even the National Rally) could paralyse the government. No wonder, Macron is hesitating to pick a Prime Minister, who can cobble together Ministers with a common program for the legislature.

Melenchon’s party is the largest in the left and centrist coalitions, but some of its extreme positions could alienate other members. And, (to use the typically French phrase) “cohabitation” with Macron’s executive will be a tough task.

For the present, the President has pushed the decision down the road by asking the sitting PM to continue in office and busied himself with foreign affairs and conduct of the Olympics. Across the Channel, a new Cabinet and an Opposition are already in place and running.

France, with a more turbulent history of settling domestic disagreements, is at an impasse. It is more prone to violence on the streets than Britain, as shown by the Green Beret experience some years back. Some observers foresee a sea change that could bring an end to the Vth Republic itself.

Renuka Viswanathan retired from the Indian Administrative Service. Views expressed here are the writer’s own.