Wagner Group – ‘Victory over Death’

Ever since the stunning march of the Wagner combatants, from Rostov on Don to Moscow on June 23, they find unique space across most media. According to the media, the combatants of the group took over the Military HQ at Rostov on Don and with no opposition, and amid smiling friendly citizens, began their march led by Tanks to Moscow. They called off the march in 24 hours, apparently based on a deal brokered by the Belarus President Lukashenko.

A brief over the shoulder look at the history of conflict, reveals that such entities are definitive additions to the battlespace from at least 401 BCE. With iconic names and eccentric leaders, they are a study of closely integrated fighting groups, with highly desirable out of the ordinary combat capability, willing to win or die for a price.

With names like ‘The 10 Thousand’, 'The White Company’, ‘Green Mountain Boys’, and the more recent ‘Executive Outcomes’, they have dotted battle spaces over centuries. A favourite ‘The Wild Geese’, was the nom de guerre of the fighting Irish who chose to serve in European Armies, from the 16th to 18th Centuries.

Indian longbow archers, and elephants with their mahouts, were a prized element in the Persian Armies, well before Alexander’s ill-fated invasion of North India in 326 BCE. In the 18th and 19th Century in India, there were any number of fighting groups and militias for hire that frequently changed allegiances.

With Nations opting for National Armies, this breed of loosely aligned fighting groups, left the organised battle spaces. The unfortunate World Wars were fought by organised armies. Post World War conflicts, as well as those after 1991, saw a resurgence of informal mercenary groups and teams.

This was due to their niche competence, deniability, and operating capabilities largely on the “dark side of the Moon”. They also became ideal instruments for ‘Grey Zone Wars’ and irregular conflict, operating outside laws, with anonymity and autonomy.

The Wagner Private Military Company has however evolved and mutated into an entity that defeats the traditional classifications of mercenary, paramilitary, or company/militia. While its specifics are embedded in uncertainties, its origin is firmly linked to the person of Col Dimitry V Utkin, a Russian Spetsnaz, (special forces) Army GRU officer. A veteran of two Chechen Wars, who post Army Service, joined the Moran Security Group, and moved onto the Slavonic Corps.

This was a group of ex-servicemen that saw combat in the Syrian War and suffered a major reverse at Al Sukhnah on 18 Oct 2013, being forced to return to Russia. Utkin, is reportedly of Rodnover Slavic Faith, and an admirer of the Nazis , with his favourite composer being Richard Wagner. Hence his personal call sign Wagner, that he transposed on the new fighting entity, The Wagner Group, which became effective by 2014.

Enter Yevgeny Prigozhin. His meteoric rise from a hot dog stand in St Petersburg (1990s), through a restaurant, to being a business magnate and confidante of the President, is inspirational. By 2014 he got completely linked to Wagner and assumed primacy in it.

As is evident he has been a wizard at generating and maintaining cash flows. He also is allegedly the head of the Internet Research Agency, a ‘Troll Farm’.

Prigozin’s financial model for the Wagner Group is ingenious. Estimates reveal that it is a combination of shares in commodities such as gas, oil, gold, diamonds, from the parties that enjoy their services, combined with substantial cash flows from contracts awarded from Russia.

Despite no earlier commitments, the Russian Presidential announcement on June 27 2023, that Wagner is fully funded by Russia, to the tune of 1 Billion USD for the last year is significant. Estimates talk of 100 Million USD a month expenditure which pegs their funding much higher. The Group also benefits immensely from Russian military infrastructure and assets.

Composed of Russian Veterans and members from up to 15 nationalities, it is apparently registered in Argentina, with offices in St Petersburg and Hong Kong. With a recruitment profile of 35-55 years, by 2017, it was operating in upto 20 African countries. Its entry in the Ukraine theatre was in 2014, when its expertise

was used in Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk regions. By 2014-15, it was also present in Syria and Libya.

Wagner manning levels are revealing. Allowing for inaccuracies, it had a strength of

approximately 1000 in 2016, and expanded to 6000 by December 2017. Consequently, core functions of Sabotage, Assault Reconnaissance, and other special operations seem to be in consonance with these manning levels and their geographic spread.

The offensive into Ukraine, in Feb 2022, saw this Group mutating into a militarised element, shifting into the more generic domain of ground war. There is a spectrum of manning figures offered ranging from 100,000 to 50,000/20,000, for the combatants. What is significant here is that the original role now expanded to ground combat, employing the arms of such war, infantry, armour and artillery.

While Wagner displayed great flexibility and light footedness adapting to this role, it carried its original DNA and diseases of its earlier genre. Special and Dark forces are used to autonomy, lack of rules and constraints, and exist on high cash flows.

They are used to communications, directives and privileged insights from the highest levels. they are ill suited to being suborned in channels of command and control. A breach was inevitable.

What served to aggravate the circumstances was that they were reckoned a superior fighting force, and were deployed in the guts of the Russian Army. Their hard fought and convincing successes in critical battles such as Soledar and Bakhmut, served to stoke the fires of envy and resentment, especially in unsuccessful Russian Commanders.

Consequently, Prigozhin’s tirade against the Russian military hierarchy and operational logistics are touched by reality. Incompetence, lack of ammunition and resources, circumstances causing excessive casualties, can all be informed and aggravated by battlespace resentments.

He is also burnt up because of lack of recognition and credit. Hence Generals Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, became his targets. Rising casualties and the crescendo of grief from the families for the unsung Wagner combatants, must have been intolerable. This brings to the fore the issue of playing around with fighting entities.

It is difficult to find wisdom in the initiative, of redirecting a Dark Fighting Entity, to mutate and organise itself for ground battle, and launch it in the midst of regular national Army units. This is all the more curious since Wagner answers to no Russian or Military Law.

Its combatants are highly paid compared to Russian soldiers. Its manning apparently includes several convicts and indentured miscreants. The methods of the group reportedly involve brutality, torture and extreme destruction in execution of tasks. This was undoubtedly a hopeful expedient, its outcome however has left fractures and fissures.

We focus on two fundamentals that emerge. Irregular forces outside the National Umbrella and law whether mercenary, militia, or for-profit special forces, have historically, proven unreliable, devious and eccentric. They were short term assets whose demise either happened, or had to be orchestrated.

In open wars as evidenced since 1939, it is only the National Armed Forces that can prevail. Essential for these National Armed Forces is their fighting tradition ‘Nam, Nishan’; a deep foundation in undying loyalty and commitment to the Nation ‘Namak’ and battle winning conviction.

Battle winning conviction, is intimately linked to manning, training, equipping and operational logistics. It thrives under a competent and confident command structure. It takes many decades to build, and can easily be degraded by tinkering and neglect.

The outcome of the military moves by the Wagner Group, labeled a ‘Mutiny’, is shrouded in inaccuracies. What were the deals and understandings? What is the future of Prigozhin? Where is he located ? In what state and where will Wagner be?

That apart, Russia is at war in Ukraine. Whatever it desires will have to be delivered by its Armed Forces. It is unlikely that the Wagner Group will be disbanded. It is far too useful and adaptable. It may resurrect and win battles, but it is the Russian Armed Forces that will have to attain the political objectives, however they are defined.

Lt General Sanjiv Langer PVSM, AVSM.(Veteran) is former Deputy Chief Integrated Defence Staff. Views expressed here are the writer's own.