With barely a few days to go before the Election Commission announces dates for the Lok Sabha polls, all eyes are set on Karnataka. The state is expected to play a crucial role in the plans envisaged by the two main opponents, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress.

In the 2019 polls, the BJP had decimated the opposition Congress and Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S), bagging 25 Lok Sabha seats out of 28. The other two main parties, and an Independent, won one each. Much to the surprise of her political rivals, Sumalatha, the Independent candidate, former actress and wife of the late film star Ambareesh, beat her nearest rival from the JD-S in the latter’s stronghold, Mandya, though not without BJP ‘s help.

This time, however, while the Congress is determined to wrest about 20 seats from the BJP, the latter is banking on retaining its present number, besides seeking to add three more, albeit, in association with the JD-S.

Though, till the time of writing the two parties had not finalised the seat sharing agreement to their mutual satisfaction. The JD-S is banking on the generosity of its new found big brother to write its own chapter in the polls.

Eitherway, the results of the Parliamentary polls from Karnataka will play a major role at the national level this time. The BJP, for one, is banking heavily on the state to take its national tally to 370 and more. It is using the poll plank of development, economic growth, continuity in governance and above all the religious sentiments built around the Ram temple at Ayodhya.

It is also seeking to exploit the recent bomb explosion case in a well known cafe in the IT city, in addition to the pro-Pakistan slogans raised by supporters of AICC member, Syed Naseer Hussain, who were celebrating his success at becoming a Rajya Sabha MP from the state. The BJP, predictably, is accusing the Congress of “supporting terrorism”.

If this was not enough, the on-going water scarcity in the IT capital and the plight of drought affected farmers, are other issues which the BJP will exploit to target the Congress.

Undeterred , the Congress is determined to prevent the BJP from realising its ambition. The state Congress, which won the 2023 Assembly polls with a thumping majority, hopes to capitalise on the five guarantees that it has implemented successfully under Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, while preparing to make life comfortable for the backward,minority and other allied sections.

Added to that, it commissioned a survey to check if its flagship schemes, including free power, bus rides to women and unemployment allowance to the youth, among others, are reaching the beneficiaries. Clearly, the Congress believes that, other issues apart, the successful implementation of its guarantees, will be a clincher for it in the Parliamentary polls.

Further, it hopes to target the BJP over what it terms as “the threat posed by the Central government to the country’s secular character,” using the “Save The Constitution” slogan as its main plank while reiterating its narrative on declining central grants under the aegis of the BJP.

All this, however, will become meaningful only once the parties concerned announce the names of their candidates for the 28 Parliamentary seats. This would be the crucial factor that would encourage or discourage the party supporters and cadres, and of course, the voters. State leaders and workers of the Congress and the BJP-JDS combine are waiting anxiously for the all important announcement from their central leadership.

Above all, the uncertainty surrounding their candidature is causing acute discomfort to the sitting MPs from the two sides who remain on tenterhooks. The Congress , for instance, wants many senior ministers and MLAs to fight the elections ,according to state Home Minister, G. Parameshwara.

The ministers , however, are not amused with the proposal. Instead, most want that the tickets be given to their children or immediate relatives, something that the Congress party is wary of, fearing charges of nepotism.

The BJP, on its part, is keen to replace a few of its sitting MPs with new faces, at least seven to eight, as people in their constituencies are not happy with the performance of the incumbents. It is in this background that the state BJP leaders are also waiting for the rallies that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to address in some of the districts in a few days. That, they believe, will happen immediately post the announcements of the party candidates for the polls.

Meanwhile, as the two main parties gear up for the major fight in Karnataka, the lines are clearly marked. The BJP is determined to raise its vote share in this election beyond the 52 percent that it realised in 2019 while going all out to add to its present tally of 25 seats.

The Congress on its part, is leaving no stone unturned to attract more voters so that it can bag the additional 19 seats that it is targeting for now, in the process improving on its earlier vote share of 32 percent.

The JD-S ,which switches alliances faster than a new mother changes its baby’s diapers, would be only too happy to piggyback on the BJP. It is hoping that it would get at least five, if not more seats to fight the polls.

At the same time, it is confident that its Vokkaliga support base, spread across the state, would provide the needed backing to its alliance partner in pipping the Congress to the post ,again in this election.

Ironically for the state’s voter, however, the intense political battle comes at a time when Karnataka is facing a drought, the likes of which has not been witnessed in over 40 years. Added to that is the acute water scarcity that residents and IT companies in Bengaluru are grappling with.

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