2023 - A Dance Of Death

A holistic audit of 2023 almost compels one to invoke the phrase annus horribilis, used by Queen Elizabeth 11 in the year 1992.

The dance of death being perpetrated in Gaza with a grim toll crossing 21,000 shows no sign of ending. The war in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine plus NATO, begun in February 2022, also shows no sign of ending.

Democracy is retreating globally.

Man’s reckless industrial activity since the onset of the Industrial Revolution has raised the average global temperature by 1.46 degrees Celsius, perilously close to the safe limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Foreign policy conducted by some major powers does not seem to be aimed at resolving problems. At times the intent, the insidious intent, seems to be to aggravate disputes and cause wars.

Though there is much talk about the potential negative impact of unregulated AI, no one in a responsible position is talking about the need to regulate AI’s use in warfare.

I personally fail to see any major positive development in 2023.

We shall usher in 2024 by wishing each other and hoping that 2024 will be better than 2023. We might bear in mind that human nature does necessarily change when the year or the century changes. Yet, we as humans have an obligation to remain hopeful of a better year and to work for that. We cannot expect peace and goodwill to fall from the sky.

The Genocidal War On Gaza
The adjective “genocidal” is deliberately chosen. If any reader has reservations about it, I will request her to read article 2 of the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

There are a few wrong impressions going around that need correction. First, while there cannot be any approbation for what Hamas and other militants carried out on 7th October 2023, it does not follow that Israel, in retaliation, is entitled to go on killing Gazans in brazen violation of the International Humanitarian Law by bombing schools, hospitals, churches, mosques, and refugee camps maintained by UN and ICRC.

Second, the impression that the IDS (Israeli Defence Forces) is invincible is wrong. It is the IDS supported by the Pentagon that is relatively invincible. Washington gave Ukraine 250- or 500-pound bombs. Israel is getting 1000- and 2000-pound bombs. In short, Israel cannot wage a war without support from the Pentagon.

Biden’s Folly
Biden’s policy has been consistently inconsistent. When Russia bombs civilian targets Biden condemns such action. When Israel does it, Biden who has the power to compel Israel to stop it, meekly says that he has urged Netanyahu to resort to ‘surgical strikes’. Obviously, for Biden Palestinian lives do not count as much as Ukrainian ones. In this context, let us look at the 1776 Declaration of Independence:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed, by their Creator, with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

It is an established principle in ethics that if A is committing an offence, and if B has the power to stop A from committing the offence or to stop him from continuing with his wrong action, and if B does not use his power, both A and B are responsible for the offence.

UNSC Paralysis
Here again there is a prevailing misconception that needs correction. If the Security Council cannot discharge its primary responsibility to maintain international peace and security, the fault lies not with the Council. It is one or more of the Permanent 5 holding the power of veto who should be held responsible.

The veto system was the brainchild of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt who held office from 1933 to 1945. He naively thought that the 5 policemen would be able to maintain law and order in the global village. Little did he imagine that the 5 policemen themselves will start wars or support their proxies at war and thereby paralyze the Council.

Washington used its veto to prevent the Council from calling for a ceasefire. The resolution that the Council passed on 22nd December was drastically watered down by Washington. The U.A.E. and Egypt who negotiated with Washington found it difficult to preserve the original objective of the draft. It was indeed strange to see Washington and Moscow abstaining while 13 out of 15 voted for the resolution. Russia abstained as the language in the resolution was too watered down.

The War in Ukraine
All wars can be categorized into two types, necessary wars, and wars of choice. The 1971 War leading to the liberation of Bangladesh was a necessary one. Unfortunately, most of the wars in history are wars of choice.

Three men are responsible for starting and continuing it: Presidents Putin, Biden, and Zelenski. Zelenski chased NATO membership even though he knew or should have known that he was not going to get it. Biden by signing a Charter on Strategic Partnership with Ukraine encouraged Zelenski to take a tough line with Putin. The Charter was signed on 10th November 2021. Putin sent a draft treaty seeking security guarantees in mid-December 2021 to Washington. Biden publicly rejected Russia’s bid to start negotiations. In March 2022, Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey and agreed on draft agreement for a ceasefire. Biden and Boris Johnson urged Zelenski not to agree.

As of now, Ukraine’s counteroffensive that started in June 2023 has run its course and Russia still holds 18% of Ukraine’s territory. There is growing donor fatigue in Washington and Brussels after delivering $ 255 billion, half for preventing economic collapse and the other half military.

President Biden had hoped that economic sanctions would cripple Russia and that it might be destabilized with Putin’s exit from power. One is reminded of Robert Burns’ lines:

The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.

Global Warming
The 2015 Paris Agreement committed the parties to work hard to limit the rise in global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The year 2023 has been the hottest and the average temperature had risen by 1.46 degrees Celsius. Yet, the COP 28 held in Dubai did fail to address the issue. Unless this business-as-usual attitude changes we are going to see a rising sea level imperiling states such as Maldives. The North that caused the climate change is not yet ready to pay for the damage it caused.

Artificial Intelligence
There is much discussion on Ai and its potentially disastrous implications if it is not regulated. However, we have not heard anything about regulating the use of AI by the military. It has been reported that IDF uses AI to choose targets. If so, it follows that AI can choose targets holding civilians and civilian facilities with precision.

India in 2023
India’s becoming the 5th largest economy is indeed a creditable achievement. But it should be seen in context. India still accounts for the largest number of human beings living below the poverty line. India’s literacy at 77.8% is below the global average of 86.3%.

It is not important to win a race against other countries. It is important to remove poverty, illiteracy, and ill health as soon as possible. Employment is equally important.

It does not make sense to proclaim goals that do not make sense. The Uttar Pradesh Chief minister says that his state would have a GDP of $ 1 trillion in 2027. Its current GDP is $250 billion. The goal is to quadruple the GDP. Arithmetic shows that at the rate of 22% of annual growth it will take 7 years.

While India’s economy is growing its democracy is shrinking. With 146 members of Parliament suspended and important laws passed in a bit of a hurry without sending them to a Select Committee the signs are worrying.

2024 Prospects
There will be elections in the U.S, U.K. India, Bangladesh, Russia, and Pakistan, to list only a few. The incumbents are likely to succeed themselves in India, Russia, and Bangladesh. The incumbents are likely to lose in the U.S. and U.K. Pakistan is rapidly moving away from democracy .

Israel might have an election that Netanyahu might lose and that will be good for Israel and the rest of the world.

We conclude with the thought that foreign policy is to be used to resolve problems without war and not to aggravate the problems risking war.

Ambassador K.P.Fabian retired from the Indian Foreign Service. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.